This paper presents a diffusion based probabilistic interpretation of spectral clustering and dimensionality reduction algorithms that use the eigenvectors of the normalized graph Laplacian. Given the pairwise adjacency matrix of all points, we define a diffusion distance between any two data points and show that the low dimensional representation of the data by the first few eigenvectors of the corresponding Markov matrix is optimal under a certain mean squared error criterion.

Nested sampling is a new Monte Carlo method by Skilling [1] intended for general Bayesian computation. Nested sampling provides a robust alternative to annealing-based methods for computing normalizing constants. It can also generate estimates of other quantities such as posterior expectations. The key technical requirement is an ability to draw samples uniformly from the prior subject to a constraint on the likelihood. We provide a demonstration with the Potts model, an undirected graphical model.

Theories of visual attention commonly posit that early parallel processes extract conspicuous features such as color contrast and motion from the visual field. These features are then combined into a saliency map, and attention is directed to the most salient regions first. Top-down attentional control is achieved by modulating the contribution of different feature types to the saliency map. A key source of data concerning attentional control comes from behavioral studies in which the effect of recent experience is examined as individuals repeatedly perform a perceptual discrimination task (e.g., "what shape is the odd-colored object?"). The robust finding is that repetition of features of recent trials (e.g., target color) facilitates performance. We view this facilitation as an adaptation to the statistical structure of the environment. We propose a probabilistic model of the environment that is updated after each trial. Under the assumption that attentional control operates so as to make performance more efficient for more likely environmental states, we obtain parsimonious explanations for data from four different experiments. Further, our model provides a rational explanation for why the influence of past experience on attentional control is short lived.

Sparse PCA seeks approximate sparse "eigenvectors" whose projections capture the maximal variance of data. As a cardinality-constrained and non-convex optimization problem, it is NPhard and is encountered in a wide range of applied fields, from bio-informatics to finance. Recent progress has focused mainly on continuous approximation and convex relaxation of the hard cardinality constraint. In contrast, we consider an alternative discrete spectral formulation based on variational eigenvalue bounds and provide an effective greedy strategy as well as provably optimal solutions using branch-and-bound search. Moreover, the exact methodology used reveals a simple renormalization step that improves approximate solutions obtained by any continuous method. The resulting performance gain of discrete algorithms is demonstrated on real-world benchmark data and in extensive Monte Carlo evaluation trials.

Long-distance language modeling is important not only in speech recognition and machine translation, but also in high-dimensional discrete sequence modeling in general. However, the problem of context length has almost been neglected so far and a naïve bag-of-words history has been employed in natural language processing. In contrast, in this paper we view topic shifts within a text as a latent stochastic process to give an explicit probabilistic generative model that has partial exchangeability. We propose an online inference algorithm using particle filters to recognize topic shifts to employ the most appropriate length of context automatically. Experiments on the BNC corpus showed consistent improvement over previous methods involving no chronological order.

We propose consensus propagation, an asynchronous distributed protocol for averaging numbers across a network. We establish convergence, characterize the convergence rate for regular graphs, and demonstrate that the protocol exhibits better scaling properties than pairwise averaging, an alternative that has received much recent attention. Consensus propagation can be viewed as a special case of belief propagation, and our results contribute to the belief propagation literature. In particular, beyond singly-connected graphs, there are very few classes of relevant problems for which belief propagation is known to converge.

We considered a gamma distribution of interspike intervals as a statistical model for neuronal spike generation. The model parameters consist of a time-dependent firing rate and a shape parameter that characterizes spiking irregularities of individual neurons. Because the environment changes with time, observed data are generated from the time-dependent firing rate, which is an unknown function. A statistical model with an unknown function is called a semiparametric model, which is one of the unsolved problem in statistics and is generally very difficult to solve. We used a novel method of estimating functions in information geometry to estimate the shape parameter without estimating the unknown function. We analytically obtained an optimal estimating function for the shape parameter independent of the functional form of the firing rate. This estimation is efficient without Fisher information loss and better than maximum likelihood estimation.

We present an infinite mixture model in which each component comprises a multivariate Gaussian distribution over an input space, and a Gaussian Process model over an output space. Our model is neatly able to deal with non-stationary covariance functions, discontinuities, multimodality and overlapping output signals. The work is similar to that by Rasmussen and Ghahramani [1]; however, we use a full generative model over input and output space rather than just a conditional model. This allows us to deal with incomplete data, to perform inference over inverse functional mappings as well as for regression, and also leads to a more powerful and consistent Bayesian specification of the effective'gating network' for the different experts.

Predictive state representations (PSRs) are a method of modeling dynamical systems using only observable data, such as actions and observations, to describe their model. PSRs use predictions about the outcome of future tests to summarize the system state. The best existing techniques for discovery and learning of PSRs use a Monte Carlo approach to explicitly estimate these outcome probabilities. In this paper, we present a new algorithm for discovery and learning of PSRs that uses a gradient descent approach to compute the predictions for the current state. The algorithm takes advantage of the large amount of structure inherent in a valid prediction matrix to constrain its predictions. Furthermore, the algorithm can be used online by an agent to constantly improve its prediction quality; something that current state of the art discovery and learning algorithms are unable to do. We give empirical results to show that our constrained gradient algorithm is able to discover core tests using very small amounts of data, and with larger amounts of data can compute accurate predictions of the system dynamics.

There is a longstanding controversy on the site of the cerebellar motor learning. Different theories and experimental results suggest that either the cerebellar flocculus or the brainstem learns the task and stores the memory. With a dynamical system approach, we clarify the mechanism of transferring the memory generated in the flocculus to the brainstem and that of so-called savings phenomena. The brainstem learning must comply with a sort of Hebbian rule depending on Purkinje-cell activities. In contrast to earlier numerical models, our model is simple but it accommodates explanations and predictions of experimental situations as qualitative features of trajectories in the phase space of synaptic weights, without fine parameter tuning.