Many tasks (e.g., clustering) in machine learning only require the l

We derive an equation for temporal difference learning from statistical principles. Specifically, we start with the variational principle and then bootstrap to produce an updating rule for discounted state value estimates. The resulting equation is similar to the standard equation for temporal difference learning with eligibility traces, so called TD(λ), however it lacks the parameter α that specifies the learning rate. In the place of this free parameter there is now an equation for the learning rate that is specific to each state transition. We experimentally test this new learning rule against TD(λ) and find that it offers superior performance in various settings. Finally, we make some preliminary investigations into how to extend our new temporal difference algorithm to reinforcement learning. To do this we combine our update equation with both Watkins' Q(λ) and Sarsa(λ) and find that it again offers superior performance without a learning rate parameter.

In many applications, one has to actively select among a set of expensive observations before making an informed decision. Often, we want to select observations which perform well when evaluated with an objective function chosen by an adversary. Examples include minimizing the maximum posterior variance in Gaussian Process regression, robust experimental design, and sensor placement for outbreak detection. In this paper, we present the Submodular Saturation algorithm, a simple and efficient algorithm with strong theoretical approximation guarantees for the case where the possible objective functions exhibit submodularity, an intuitive diminishing returns property. Moreover, we prove that better approximation algorithms do not exist unless NPcomplete problems admit efficient algorithms. We evaluate our algorithm on several real-world problems. For Gaussian Process regression, our algorithm compares favorably with state-of-the-art heuristics described in the geostatistics literature, while being simpler, faster and providing theoretical guarantees. For robust experimental design, our algorithm performs favorably compared to SDP-based algorithms.

We give a new class of outer bounds on the marginal polytope, and propose a cutting-plane algorithm for efficiently optimizing over these constraints. When combined with a concave upper bound on the entropy, this gives a new variational inference algorithm for probabilistic inference in discrete Markov Random Fields (MRFs). Valid constraints on the marginal polytope are derived through a series of projections onto the cut polytope. As a result, we obtain tighter upper bounds on the log-partition function. We also show empirically that the approximations of the marginals are significantly more accurate when using the tighter outer bounds. Finally, we demonstrate the advantage of the new constraints for finding the MAP assignment in protein structure prediction.

Many tasks (e.g., clustering) in machine learning only require the l

Most models of decision-making in neuroscience assume an infinite horizon, which yields an optimal solution that integrates evidence up to a fixed decision threshold; however, under most experimental as well as naturalistic behavioral settings, the decision has to be made before some finite deadline, which is often experienced as a stochastic quantity, either due to variable external constraints or internal timing uncertainty. In this work, we formulate this problem as sequential hypothesis testing under a stochastic horizon. We use dynamic programming tools to show that, for a large class of deadline distributions, the Bayes-optimal solution requires integrating evidence up to a threshold that declines monotonically over time. We use numerical simulations to illustrate the optimal policy in the special cases of a fixed deadline and one that is drawn from a gamma distribution.

Recent experimental studies have focused on the specialization of different neural structures for different types of instrumental behavior. Recent theoretical work has provided normative accounts for why there should be more than one control system, and how the output of different controllers can be integrated. Two particlar controllers have been identified, one associated with a forward model and the prefrontal cortex and a second associated with computationally simpler, habitual, actor-critic methods and part of the striatum. We argue here for the normative appropriateness of an additional, but so far marginalized control system, associated with episodic memory, and involving the hippocampus and medial temporal cortices. We analyze in depth a class of simple environments to show that episodic control should be useful in a range of cases characterized by complexity and inferential noise, and most particularly at the very early stages of learning, long before habitization has set in. We interpret data on the transfer of control from the hippocampus to the striatum in the light of this hypothesis.

We investigate a family of inference problems on Markov models, where many sample paths are drawn from a Markov chain and partial information is revealed to an observer who attempts to reconstruct the sample paths. We present algorithms and hardness results for several variants of this problem which arise by revealing different information to the observer and imposing different requirements for the reconstruction of sample paths. Our algorithms are analogous to the classical Viterbi algorithm for Hidden Markov Models, which finds the single most probable sample path given a sequence of observations. Our work is motivated by an important application in ecology: inferring bird migration paths from a large database of observations.

We extend the Bayesian skill rating system TrueSkill to infer entire time series of skills of players by smoothing through time instead of filtering. The skill of each participating player, say, every year is represented by a latent skill variable which is affected by the relevant game outcomes that year, and coupled with the skill variables of the previous and subsequent year. Inference in the resulting factor graph is carried out by approximate message passing (EP) along the time series of skills. As before the system tracks the uncertainty about player skills, explicitly models draws, can deal with any number of competing entities and can infer individual skills from team results. We extend the system to estimate player-specific draw margins. Basedon these models we present an analysis of the skill curves of important players in the history of chess over the past 150 years. Results include plots of players' lifetime skill development as well as the ability to compare the skills of different players across time. Our results indicate that a) the overall playing strength has increased over the past 150 years, and b) that modelling a player's ability to force a draw provides significantly better predictive power.

Extensive games are a powerful model of multiagent decision-making scenarios with incomplete information. Finding a Nash equilibrium for very large instances of these games has received a great deal of recent attention. In this paper, we describe a new technique for solving large games based on regret minimization. In particular, we introduce the notion of counterfactual regret, which exploits the degree of incomplete information in an extensive game. We show how minimizing counterfactual regret minimizes overall regret, and therefore in self-play can be used to compute a Nash equilibrium. We demonstrate this technique in the domain of poker, showing we can solve abstractions of limit Texas Hold'em with as many as 10