We provide an algorithm to compute near-optimal strategies for the Cultaptation social learning game. We show that the strategies produced by our algorithm are near-optimal, both in their expected utility and their expected reproductive success. We show how our algorithm can be used to provide insight into evolutionary conditions under which learning is best done by copying others, versus the conditions under which learning is best done by trial-and-error.

The development of tools to provide insight into the behavioral response of a civilian population will greatly benefit the modeling and simulation community and have potential applications across multiple user communities in the U.S. Department of Defense. We present an overview of a modular agent-based modeling framework, grounded in the human behavioral and social theory, which is intended to represent a populations’ stance on issues as a function of their changing beliefs, values and interests. We utilize and integrate theories of narrative identity [1] and planned behavior [2] with macrosociological theories of heterogeneity and influence [3][4] to model civilian behavior in a conflict ecosystem. Communication between agents takes place across a social network developed using real data about the population under consideration, and essential services are implemented as objects within the model allowing for experimentation with different courses of action for development of civil service capacity. We describe the theoretical underpinnings of the model, the current state of implementation, potential use cases, and the path forward for future work.

This paper presents an agent based framework for modeling of the formation and dynamics of pirate networks. The framework consists of (1) development of network formation mechanism and (2) formulation of pirate attack dynamics. Accordingly, the paper attempts to define the characteristics of Pirate Networks and to formulate the rules that govern the operation and evolution of Pirate Networks. We discuss the clan based social system that facilitate pirate formation as well as the pirate network inter-action with the hosting clan system. Using published material, empirical data and surveys the paper attempts to establish credible formation mechanism and operational characterization of pirate attacks. The proposed framework accounts for clan dynamics and the interplay of social, ecological and physical spaces. Finally we conclude with a discussion on exploratory modeling for the refinement of the proposed framework and for empirically grounding proposed simulations.

In this paper, we consider the problem of "hyper-sparse aggregation". Namely, given a dictionary $F = \{f_1, ..., f_M \}$ of functions, we look for an optimal aggregation algorithm that writes $\tilde f = \sum_{j=1}^M \theta_j f_j$ with as many zero coefficients $\theta_j$ as possible. This problem is of particular interest when $F$ contains many irrelevant functions that should not appear in $\tilde{f}$. We provide an exact oracle inequality for $\tilde f$, where only two coefficients are non-zero, that entails $\tilde f$ to be an optimal aggregation algorithm. Since selectors are suboptimal aggregation procedures, this proves that 2 is the minimal number of elements of $F$ required for the construction of an optimal aggregation procedures in every situations. A simulated example of this algorithm is proposed on a dictionary obtained using LARS, for the problem of selection of the regularization parameter of the LASSO. We also give an example of use of aggregation to achieve minimax adaptation over anisotropic Besov spaces, which was not previously known in minimax theory (in regression on a random design).

After building a classifier with modern tools of machine learning we typically have a black box at hand that is able to predict well for unseen data. Thus, we get an answer to the question what is the most likely label of a given unseen data point. However, most methods will provide no answer why the model predicted the particular label for a single instance and what features were most influential for that particular instance. The only method that is currently able to provide such explanations are decision trees. This paper proposes a procedure which (based on a set of assumptions) allows to explain the decisions of any classification method.

Slow feature analysis (SFA) is an information processing method proposed by Wiskott and Sejnowski (WS02) which allows to extract slowly varying signals from complex multidimensional time series. Wiskott (Wis98) formulated a similar idea already before as a model of unsupervised learning of invariances in the visual system of vertebrates. SFA has been applied successfully to numerous different tasks: to reproduce a wide range of properties of complex cells in primary visual cortex (BW05), to model the self-organized formation of place cells in the hippocampus (FSW07), to classify handwritten digits (Ber05) and to extract driving forces from nonstationary time series (Wis03). The analysis of nonstationary time series plays an important role in the data understanding of various phenomena such as temperature drift in experimental setup, global warming in climate data or varying heart rate in cardiology. Such nonstationarities can be modeled by underlying parameters, referred to as driving forces, that change the dynamics of the system smoothly on a slow time scale or abruptly but rarely, e.g. if the dynamics switches between different discrete states.

This survey is an introduction to positive definite kernels and the set of methods they have inspired in the machine learning literature, namely kernel methods. We first discuss some properties of positive definite kernels as well as reproducing kernel Hibert spaces, the natural extension of the set of functions $\{k(x,\cdot),x\in\mathcal{X}\}$ associated with a kernel $k$ defined on a space $\mathcal{X}$. We discuss at length the construction of kernel functions that take advantage of well-known statistical models. We provide an overview of numerous data-analysis methods which take advantage of reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces and discuss the idea of combining several kernels to improve the performance on certain tasks. We also provide a short cookbook of different kernels which are particularly useful for certain data-types such as images, graphs or speech segments.

The fundamental laws of quantum world upsets the logical foundation of classic physics. They are completely counter-intuitive with many bizarre behaviors. However, this paper shows that they may make sense from the perspective of a general decision-optimization principle for cooperation. This principle also offers a generalization of Nash equilibrium, a key concept in game theory, for better payoffs and stability of game playing.

We consider a sequence of repeated interactions between an agent and an environment. Uncertainty about the environment is captured by a probability distribution over a space of hypotheses, which includes all computable functions. Given a utility function, we can evaluate the expected utility of any computational policy for interaction with the environment. After making some plausible assumptions (and maybe one not-so-plausible assumption), we show that if the utility function is unbounded, then the expected utility of any policy is undefined.

Logics of knowledge based on possible-world semantics are u seful in many areas of knowledge representation and reasoning, ranging from security t o distributed computing to game theory. In these models, an agent is said to know a fact ϕ if ϕ is true in all the worlds she considers possible. While reasoning about knowledge with t his semantics has proved useful, as is well known, it suffers from what is known in the literature as the logical omniscience problem: under possible-world semantics, agents know all t autologies and know the logical consequences of their knowledge. While logical omniscience is certainly not always an issue, in many applications it is. For example, in the context of distributed computing, we are interested in polynomial-time algorithms, although in some cases the knowledge needed to p erform optimally may require calculations that cannot be performed in polynomial time (u nless P=NP) [Moses and Tuttle 1988]; in the context of security, we may want to reason about computationally bounded adversaries who cannot factor a large composite number, and thus cannot be logically omniscient; in game theory, we may be interested in the impac t of computational resources on solution concepts (for example, what will agents do if com puting a Nash equilibrium is difficult). Not surprisingly, many approaches for dealing with the logi cal omniscience problem have been suggested (see [Fagin, Halpern, Moses, and Vardi 1 995, Chapter 9] and [Moreno 1998]).