Online (also called "recursive" or "adaptive") estimation of fixed model parameters in hidden Markov models is a topic of much interest in times series modelling. In this work, we propose an online parameter estimation algorithm that combines two key ideas. The first one, which is deeply rooted in the Expectation-Maximization (EM) methodology consists in reparameterizing the problem using complete-data sufficient statistics. The second ingredient consists in exploiting a purely recursive form of smoothing in HMMs based on an auxiliary recursion. Although the proposed online EM algorithm resembles a classical stochastic approximation (or Robbins-Monro) algorithm, it is sufficiently different to resist conventional analysis of convergence. We thus provide limited results which identify the potential limiting points of the recursion as well as the large-sample behavior of the quantities involved in the algorithm. The performance of the proposed algorithm is numerically evaluated through simulations in the case of a noisily observed Markov chain. In this case, the algorithm reaches estimation results that are comparable to that of the maximum likelihood estimator for large sample sizes.

Inspired by biological vision systems, the over-complete local features with huge cardinality are increasingly used for face recognition during the last decades. Accordingly, feature selection has become more and more important and plays a critical role for face data description and recognition. In this paper, we propose a trainable feature selection algorithm based on the regularized frame for face recognition. By enforcing a sparsity penalty term on the minimum squared error (MSE) criterion, we cast the feature selection problem into a combinatorial sparse approximation problem, which can be solved by greedy methods or convex relaxation methods. Moreover, based on the same frame, we propose a sparse Ho-Kashyap (HK) procedure to obtain simultaneously the optimal sparse solution and the corresponding margin vector of the MSE criterion. The proposed methods are used for selecting the most informative Gabor features of face images for recognition and the experimental results on benchmark face databases demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods.

This study is focused on the development of the cortex-like visual object recognition system. We propose a general framework, which consists of three hierarchical levels (modules). These modules functionally correspond to the V1, V4 and IT areas. Both bottom-up and top-down connections between the hierarchical levels V4 and IT are employed. The higher the degree of matching between the input and the preferred stimulus, the shorter the response time of the neuron. Therefore information about a single stimulus is distributed in time and is transmitted by the waves of spikes. The reciprocal connections and waves of spikes implement predictive coding: an initial hypothesis is generated on the basis of information delivered by the first wave of spikes and is tested with the information carried by the consecutive waves. The development is considered as extraction and accumulation of features in V4 and objects in IT. Once stored a feature can be disposed, if rarely activated. This cause update of feature repository. Consequently, objects in IT are also updated. This illustrates the growing process and dynamical change of topological structures of V4, IT and connections between these areas.

We present a novel variant of decision making based on the mathematical theory of separable Hilbert spaces. This mathematical structure captures the effect of superposition of composite prospects, including many incorporated intentions, which allows us to describe a variety of interesting fallacies and anomalies that have been reported to particularize the decision making of real human beings. The theory characterizes entangled decision making, non-commutativity of subsequent decisions, and intention interference. We demonstrate how the violation of the Savage's sure-thing principle, known as the disjunction effect, can be explained quantitatively as a result of the interference of intentions, when making decisions under uncertainty. The disjunction effects, observed in experiments, are accurately predicted using a theorem on interference alternation that we derive, which connects aversion-to-uncertainty to the appearance of negative interference terms suppressing the probability of actions. The conjunction fallacy is also explained by the presence of the interference terms. A series of experiments are analysed and shown to be in excellent agreement with a priori evaluation of interference effects. The conjunction fallacy is also shown to be a sufficient condition for the disjunction effect and novel experiments testing the combined interplay between the two effects are suggested.

Under what conditions is an edge present in a social network at time t likely to decay or persist by some future time t + Delta(t)? Previous research addressing this issue suggests that the network range of the people involved in the edge, the extent to which the edge is embedded in a surrounding structure, and the age of the edge all play a role in edge decay. This paper uses weighted data from a large-scale social network built from cell-phone calls in an 8-week period to determine the importance of edge weight for the decay/persistence process. In particular, we study the relative predictive power of directed weight, embeddedness, newness, and range (measured as outdegree) with respect to edge decay and assess the effectiveness with which a simple decision tree and logistic regression classifier can accurately predict whether an edge that was active in one time period continues to be so in a future time period. We find that directed edge weight, weighted reciprocity and time-dependent measures of edge longevity are highly predictive of whether we classify an edge as persistent or decayed, relative to the other types of factors at the dyad and neighborhood level.

Despite the increasing diffusion of the Internet technology, TV remains the principal medium of communication. People's perceptions, knowledge, beliefs and opinions about matter of facts get (in)formed through the information reported on by the mass-media. However, a single source of information (and consensus) could be a potential cause of anomalies in the structure and evolution of a society. Hence, as the information available (and the way it is reported) is fundamental for our perceptions and opinions, the definition of conditions allowing for a good information to be disseminated is a pressing challenge. In this paper starting from a report on the last Italian political campaign in 2008, we derive a socio-cognitive computational model of opinion dynamics where agents get informed by different sources of information. Then, a what-if analysis, performed trough simulations on the model's parameters space, is shown. In particular, the scenario implemented includes three main streams of information acquisition, differing in both the contents and the perceived reliability of the messages spread. Agents' internal opinion is updated either by accessing one of the information sources, namely media and experts, or by exchanging information with one another. They are also endowed with cognitive mechanisms to accept, reject or partially consider the acquired information.

A plausible definition of "reasoning" could be "algebraically manipulating previously acquired knowledge in order to answer a new question". This definition covers first-order logical inference or probabilistic inference. It also includes much simpler manipulations commonly used to build large learning systems. For instance, we can build an optical character recognition system by first training a character segmenter, an isolated character recognizer, and a language model, using appropriate labeled training sets. Adequately concatenating these modules and fine tuning the resulting system can be viewed as an algebraic operation in a space of models. The resulting model answers a new question, that is, converting the image of a text page into a computer readable text. This observation suggests a conceptual continuity between algebraically rich inference systems, such as logical or probabilistic inference, and simple manipulations, such as the mere concatenation of trainable learning systems. Therefore, instead of trying to bridge the gap between machine learning systems and sophisticated "all-purpose" inference mechanisms, we can instead algebraically enrich the set of manipulations applicable to training systems, and build reasoning capabilities from the ground up.

Support Vectors Machines have become a well established tool within machine learning. They work well in practice and have now been used across a wide range of applications from recognizing hand-written digits, to face identification, text categorisation, bioinformatics, and database marketing. In this book we give an introductory overview of this subject. We start with a simple Support Vector Machine for performing binary classification before considering multi-class classification and learning in the presence of noise. We show that this framework can be extended to many other scenarios such as prediction with real-valued outputs, novelty detection and the handling of complex output structures such as parse trees.

Although there is a rich literature on methods for allowing the variance in a univariate regression model to vary with predictors, time and other factors, relatively little has been done in the multivariate case. Our focus is on developing a class of nonparametric covariance regression models, which allow an unknown p x p covariance matrix to change flexibly with predictors. The proposed modeling framework induces a prior on a collection of covariance matrices indexed by predictors through priors for predictor-dependent loadings matrices in a factor model. In particular, the predictor-dependent loadings are characterized as a sparse combination of a collection of unknown dictionary functions (e.g, Gaussian process random functions). The induced covariance is then a regularized quadratic function of these dictionary elements. Our proposed framework leads to a highly-flexible, but computationally tractable formulation with simple conjugate posterior updates that can readily handle missing data. Theoretical properties are discussed and the methods are illustrated through simulations studies and an application to the Google Flu Trends data.

Active Learning Method (ALM) is a soft computing method used for modeling and control based on fuzzy logic. All operators defined for fuzzy sets must serve as either fuzzy S-norm or fuzzy T-norm. Despite being a powerful modeling method, ALM does not possess operators which serve as S-norms and T-norms which deprive it of a profound analytical expression/form. This paper introduces two new operators based on morphology which satisfy the following conditions: First, they serve as fuzzy S-norm and T-norm. Second, they satisfy Demorgans law, so they complement each other perfectly. These operators are investigated via three viewpoints: Mathematics, Geometry and fuzzy logic.