Stochastic sampling algorithms, while an attractive alternative to exact algorithms in very large Bayesian network models, have been observed to perform poorly in evidential reasoning with extremely unlikely evidence. To address this problem, we propose an adaptive importance sampling algorithm, AIS-BN, that shows promising convergence rates even under extreme conditions and seems to outperform the existing sampling algorithms consistently. Three sources of this performance improvement are (1) two heuristics for initialization of the importance function that are based on the theoretical properties of importance sampling in finite-dimensional integrals and the structural advantages of Bayesian networks, (2) a smooth learning method for the importance function, and (3) a dynamic weighting function for combining samples from different stages of the algorithm. We tested the performance of the AIS-BN algorithm along with two state of the art general purpose sampling algorithms, likelihood weighting (Fung and Chang, 1989; Shachter and Peot, 1989) and self-importance sampling (Shachter and Peot, 1989). We used in our tests three large real Bayesian network models available to the scientific community: the CPCS network (Pradhan et al., 1994), the PathFinder network (Heckerman, Horvitz, and Nathwani, 1990), and the ANDES network (Conati, Gertner, VanLehn, and Druzdzel, 1997), with evidence as unlikely as 10^-41. While the AIS-BN algorithm always performed better than the other two algorithms, in the majority of the test cases it achieved orders of magnitude improvement in precision of the results. Improvement in speed given a desired precision is even more dramatic, although we are unable to report numerical results here, as the other algorithms almost never achieved the precision reached even by the first few iterations of the AIS-BN algorithm.

We tackle the problem of planning in nondeterministic domains, by presenting a new approach to conformant planning. Conformant planning is the problem of finding a sequence of actions that is guaranteed to achieve the goal despite the nondeterminism of the domain. Our approach is based on the representation of the planning domain as a finite state automaton. We use Symbolic Model Checking techniques, in particular Binary Decision Diagrams, to compactly represent and efficiently search the automaton. In this paper we make the following contributions. First, we present a general planning algorithm for conformant planning, which applies to fully nondeterministic domains, with uncertainty in the initial condition and in action effects. The algorithm is based on a breadth-first, backward search, and returns conformant plans of minimal length, if a solution to the planning problem exists, otherwise it terminates concluding that the problem admits no conformant solution. Second, we provide a symbolic representation of the search space based on Binary Decision Diagrams (BDDs), which is the basis for search techniques derived from symbolic model checking. The symbolic representation makes it possible to analyze potentially large sets of states and transitions in a single computation step, thus providing for an efficient implementation. Third, we present CMBP (Conformant Model Based Planner), an efficient implementation of the data structures and algorithm described above, directly based on BDD manipulations, which allows for a compact representation of the search layers and an efficient implementation of the search steps. Finally, we present an experimental comparison of our approach with the state-of-the-art conformant planners CGP, QBFPLAN and GPT. Our analysis includes all the planning problems from the distribution packages of these systems, plus other problems defined to stress a number of specific factors. Our approach appears to be the most effective: CMBP is strictly more expressive than QBFPLAN and CGP and, in all the problems where a comparison is possible, CMBP outperforms its competitors, sometimes by orders of magnitude.

Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) have recently become popular among many AI researchers because they serve as a natural model for planning under uncertainty. Value iteration is a well-known algorithm for finding optimal policies for POMDPs. It typically takes a large number of iterations to converge. This paper proposes a method for accelerating the convergence of value iteration. The method has been evaluated on an array of benchmark problems and was found to be very effective: It enabled value iteration to converge after only a few iterations on all the test problems.

Domain-independent planning is a hard combinatorial problem. Taking into account plan quality makes the task even more difficult. This article introduces Planning by Rewriting (PbR), a new paradigm for efficient high-quality domain-independent planning. PbR exploits declarative plan-rewriting rules and efficient local search techniques to transform an easy-to-generate, but possibly suboptimal, initial plan into a high-quality plan. In addition to addressing the issues of planning efficiency and plan quality, this framework offers a new anytime planning algorithm. We have implemented this planner and applied it to several existing domains. The experimental results show that the PbR approach provides significant savings in planning effort while generating high-quality plans.

A major problem in machine learning is that of inductive bias: how to choose a learner's hypothesis space so that it is large enough to contain a solution to the problem being learnt, yet small enough to ensure reliable generalization from reasonably-sized training sets. Typically such bias is supplied by hand through the skill and insights of experts. In this paper a model for automatically learning bias is investigated. The central assumption of the model is that the learner is embedded within an environment of related learning tasks. Within such an environment the learner can sample from multiple tasks, and hence it can search for a hypothesis space that contains good solutions to many of the problems in the environment. Under certain restrictions on the set of all hypothesis spaces available to the learner, we show that a hypothesis space that performs well on a sufficiently large number of training tasks will also perform well when learning novel tasks in the same environment. Explicit bounds are also derived demonstrating that learning multiple tasks within an environment of related tasks can potentially give much better generalization than learning a single task.

The paper addresses the problem of computing goal orderings, which is one of the longstanding issues in AI planning. It makes two new contributions. First, it formally defines and discusses two different goal orderings, which are called the reasonable and the forced ordering. Both orderings are defined for simple STRIPS operators as well as for more complex ADL operators supporting negation and conditional effects. The complexity of these orderings is investigated and their practical relevance is discussed. Secondly, two different methods to compute reasonable goal orderings are developed. One of them is based on planning graphs, while the other investigates the set of actions directly. Finally, it is shown how the ordering relations, which have been derived for a given set of goals G, can be used to compute a so-called goal agenda that divides G into an ordered set of subgoals. Any planner can then, in principle, use the goal agenda to plan for increasing sets of subgoals. This can lead to an exponential complexity reduction, as the solution to a complex planning problem is found by solving easier subproblems. Since only a polynomial overhead is caused by the goal agenda computation, a potential exists to dramatically speed up planning algorithms as we demonstrate in the empirical evaluation, where we use this method in the IPP planner.

Here \unlikely" means \unless some complexity classes collapse," where the collapses considered are P NP, P PSPACE, or P EXP. Until or unless these collapses are shown to hold, any control-policy designer must choose between such performance guarantees and ecient computation. In this work, we show that uncertainty breeds uncertainty: In a controlled stochastic system with uncertainty (as modeled by a partially observable Markov decision process, for example), plans can be obtained eciently or with quality guarantees, but rarely both. Planning over stochastic domains with uncertainty is hard (in some cases PSPACEhard or even undecidable, see Papadimitriou & Tsitsiklis, 1987; Madani, Hanks, & Condon, 1999). Given that it is hard to nd an optimal plan or policy, it is natural to try to nd one that is \good enough". In the best of all possible worlds, this would mean having an algorithm that is guaranteed to be fast and to produce a policy that is reasonably close to the optimal policy.

Functional relationships between objects, called `attributes', are of considerable importance in knowledge representation languages, including Description Logics (DLs). A study of the literature indicates that papers have made, often implicitly, different assumptions about the nature of attributes: whether they are always required to have a value, or whether they can be partial functions. The work presented here is the first explicit study of this difference for subclasses of the CLASSIC DL, involving the same-as concept constructor. It is shown that although determining subsumption between concept descriptions has the same complexity (though requiring different algorithms), the story is different in the case of determining the least common subsumer (lcs). For attributes interpreted as partial functions, the lcs exists and can be computed relatively easily; even in this case our results correct and extend three previous papers about the lcs of DLs. In the case where attributes must have a value, the lcs may not exist, and even if it exists it may be of exponential size. Interestingly, it is possible to decide in polynomial time if the lcs exists.

Pearl and Dechter (1996) claimed that the d-separation criterion for conditional independence in acyclic causal networks also applies to networks of discrete variables that have feedback cycles, provided that the variables of the system are uniquely determined by the random disturbances. I show by example that this is not true in general. Some condition stronger than uniqueness is needed, such as the existence of a causal dynamics guaranteed to lead to the unique solution.

Agents in dynamic multi-agent environments must monitor their peers to execute individual and group plans. A key open question is how much monitoring of other agents' states is required to be effective: The Monitoring Selectivity Problem. We investigate this question in the context of detecting failures in teams of cooperating agents, via Socially-Attentive Monitoring, which focuses on monitoring for failures in the social relationships between the agents. We empirically and analytically explore a family of socially-attentive teamwork monitoring algorithms in two dynamic, complex, multi-agent domains, under varying conditions of task distribution and uncertainty. We show that a centralized scheme using a complex algorithm trades correctness for completeness and requires monitoring all teammates. In contrast, a simple distributed teamwork monitoring algorithm results in correct and complete detection of teamwork failures, despite relying on limited, uncertain knowledge, and monitoring only key agents in a team. In addition, we report on the design of a socially-attentive monitoring system and demonstrate its generality in monitoring several coordination relationships, diagnosing detected failures, and both on-line and off-line applications.