Supply chain formation is the process of determining the structure and terms of exchange relationships to enable a multilevel, multiagent production activity. We present a simple model of supply chains, highlighting two characteristic features: hierarchical subtask decomposition, and resource contention. To decentralize the formation process, we introduce a market price system over the resources produced along the chain. In a competitive equilibrium for this system, agents choose locally optimal allocations with respect to prices, and outcomes are optimal overall. To determine prices, we define a market protocol based on distributed, progressive auctions, and myopic, non-strategic agent bidding policies. In the presence of resource contention, this protocol produces better solutions than the greedy protocols common in the artificial intelligence and multiagent systems literature. The protocol often converges to high-value supply chains, and when competitive equilibria exist, typically to approximate competitive equilibria. However, complementarities in agent production technologies can cause the protocol to wastefully allocate inputs to agents that do not produce their outputs. A subsequent decommitment phase recovers a significant fraction of the lost surplus.

This paper presents a new classifier combination technique based on the Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence. The Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence is a powerful method for combining measures of evidence from different classifiers. However, since each of the available methods that estimates the evidence of classifiers has its own limitations, we propose here a new implementation which adapts to training data so that the overall mean square error is minimized. The proposed technique is shown to outperform most available classifier combination methods when tested on three different classification problems.

We propose a structured approach to the problem of retrieval of images by content and present a description logic that has been devised for the semantic indexing and retrieval of images containing complex objects. As other approaches do, we start from low-level features extracted with image analysis to detect and characterize regions in an image. However, in contrast with feature-based approaches, we provide a syntax to describe segmented regions as basic objects and complex objects as compositions of basic ones. Then we introduce a companion extensional semantics for defining reasoning services, such as retrieval, classification, and subsumption. These services can be used for both exact and approximate matching, using similarity measures. Using our logical approach as a formal specification, we implemented a complete client-server image retrieval system, which allows a user to pose both queries by sketch and queries by example. A set of experiments has been carried out on a testbed of images to assess the retrieval capabilities of the system in comparison with expert users ranking. Results are presented adopting a well-established measure of quality borrowed from textual information retrieval.

As computational agents are developed for increasingly c omplicated e-commerce applications, the complexity of the decisions they face demands advances in artificial intelligence techniques. For example, an agent representing a seller in an au ction should try to maximize the seller's profit by reasoning about a variety of possibly uncertain pieces of information, such as the maximum prices various buyers might be willing to pay, the possible prices being offered by competing sellers, the rules by which the auction operates, t he dynamic arrival and matching of offers to buy and sell, and so on. A naïve application of multiagent reasoning techniques would require the seller's agent to explicitly model all of the other agents through an extended time horizon, rendering the problem intractable for many realisti cally-sized problems. We have instead devised a new strategy that an agent can use to determine its bid price based on a more tractable Markov chain model of the auction process. We have experimentally identified the conditions under which our new strategy works well, as well as how well it works in comparison to the optimal performance the agent could have achieved had it kn own the future. Our results show that our new strategy in general performs well, outperforming other tractable heuristic strategies in a majority of experiments, and is particularly effective in a "seller's market," where many buy offers are available.

We state the problem of inverse reinforcement learning in terms of preference elicitation, resulting in a principled (Bayesian) statistical formulation. This generalises previous work on Bayesian inverse reinforcement learning and allows us to obtain a posterior distribution on the agent's preferences, policy and optionally, the obtained reward sequence, from observations. We examine the relation of the resulting approach to other statistical methods for inverse reinforcement learning via analysis and experimental results. We show that preferences can be determined accurately, even if the observed agent's policy is sub-optimal with respect to its own preferences. In that case, significantly improved policies with respect to the agent's preferences are obtained, compared to both other methods and to the performance of the demonstrated policy.

The AdaBoost algorithm was designed to combine many "weak" hypotheses that perform slightly better than random guessing into a "strong" hypothesis that has very low error. We study the rate at which AdaBoost iteratively converges to the minimum of the "exponential loss." Unlike previous work, our proofs do not require a weak-learning assumption, nor do they require that minimizers of the exponential loss are finite. Our first result shows that at iteration $t$, the exponential loss of AdaBoost's computed parameter vector will be at most $\epsilon$ more than that of any parameter vector of $\ell_1$-norm bounded by $B$ in a number of rounds that is at most a polynomial in $B$ and $1/\epsilon$. We also provide lower bounds showing that a polynomial dependence on these parameters is necessary. Our second result is that within $C/\epsilon$ iterations, AdaBoost achieves a value of the exponential loss that is at most $\epsilon$ more than the best possible value, where $C$ depends on the dataset. We show that this dependence of the rate on $\epsilon$ is optimal up to constant factors, i.e., at least $\Omega(1/\epsilon)$ rounds are necessary to achieve within $\epsilon$ of the optimal exponential loss.

This paper reports the outcome of the third in the series of biennial international planning competitions, held in association with the International Conference on AI Planning and Scheduling (AIPS) in 2002. In addition to describing the domains, the planners and the objectives of the competition, the paper includes analysis of the results. The results are analysed from several perspectives, in order to address the questions of comparative performance between planners, comparative difficulty of domains, the degree of agreement between planners about the relative difficulty of individual problem instances and the question of how well planners scale relative to one another over increasingly difficult problems. The paper addresses these questions through statistical analysis of the raw results of the competition, in order to determine which results can be considered to be adequately supported by the data. The paper concludes with a discussion of some challenges for the future of the competition series.

Human intuition has been simulated by several research projects using artificial intelligence techniques. Most of these algorithms or models lack the ability to handle complications or diversions. Moreover, they also do not explain the factors influencing intuition and the accuracy of the results from this process. In this paper, we present a simple series based model for implementation of human-like intuition using the principles of connectivity and unknown entities. By using Poker hand datasets and Car evaluation datasets, we compare the performance of some well-known models with our intuition model. The aim of the experiment was to predict the maximum accurate answers using intuition based models. We found that the presence of unknown entities, diversion from the current problem scenario, and identifying weakness without the normal logic based execution, greatly affects the reliability of the answers. Generally, the intuition based models cannot be a substitute for the logic based mechanisms in handling such problems. The intuition can only act as a support for an ongoing logic based model that processes all the steps in a sequential manner. However, when time and computational cost are very strict constraints, this intuition based model becomes extremely important and useful, because it can give a reasonably good performance. Factors affecting intuition are analyzed and interpreted through our model.

Set and multiset variables in constraint programming have typically been represented using subset bounds. However, this is a weak representation that neglects potentially useful information about a set such as its cardinality. For set variables, the length-lex (LL) representation successfully provides information about the length (cardinality) and position in the lexicographic ordering. For multiset variables, where elements can be repeated, we consider richer representations that take into account additional information. We study eight different representations in which we maintain bounds according to one of the eight different orderings: length- (co)lex (LL/LC), variety-(co)lex (VL/VC), length-variety- (co)lex (LVL/LVC), and variety-length-(co)lex (VLL/VLC) orderings. These representations integrate together information about the cardinality, variety (number of distinct elements in the multiset), and position in some total ordering. Theoretical and empirical comparisons of expressiveness and compactness of the eight representations suggest that length-variety-(co)lex (LVL/LVC) and variety-length-(co)lex (VLL/VLC) usually give tighter bounds after constraint propagation. We implement the eight representations and evaluate them against the subset bounds representation with cardinality and variety reasoning. Results demonstrate that they offer significantly better pruning and runtime.

When dealing with time series with complex non-stationarities, low retrospective regret on individual realizations is a more appropriate goal than low prospective risk in expectation. Online learning algorithms provide powerful guarantees of this form, and have often been proposed for use with non-stationary processes because of their ability to switch between different forecasters or ``experts''. However, existing methods assume that the set of experts whose forecasts are to be combined are all given at the start, which is not plausible when dealing with a genuinely historical or evolutionary system. We show how to modify the ``fixed shares'' algorithm for tracking the best expert to cope with a steadily growing set of experts, obtained by fitting new models to new data as it becomes available, and obtain regret bounds for the growing ensemble.