High dimensional time series are endemic in applications of machine learning such as robotics (sensor data), computational biology (gene expression data), vision (video sequences) and graphics (motion capture data). Practical nonlinear probabilistic approaches to this data are required. In this paper we introduce the variational Gaussian process dynamical system. Our work builds on recent variational approximations for Gaussian process latent variable models to allow for nonlinear dimensionality reduction simultaneously with learning a dynamical prior in the latent space. The approach also allows for the appropriate dimensionality of the latent space to be automatically determined. We demonstrate the model on a human motion capture data set and a series of high resolution video sequences.

We introduce the Piecewise-Constant Conditional Intensity Model, a model for learning temporal dependencies in event streams. We describe a closed-form Bayesian approach to learning these models, and describe an importance sampling algorithm for forecasting future events using these models, using a proposal distribution based on Poisson superposition. We then use synthetic data, supercomputer event logs, and web search query logs to illustrate that our learning algorithm can efficiently learn nonlinear temporal dependencies, and that our importance sampling algorithm can effectively forecast future events.

We derive an upper bound on the local Rademacher complexity of Lp-norm multiple kernel learning, which yields a tighter excess risk bound than global approaches. Previous local approaches analyzed the case p=1 only while our analysis covers all cases $1\leq p\leq\infty$, assuming the different feature mappings corresponding to the different kernels to be uncorrelated. We also show a lower bound that shows that the bound is tight, and derive consequences regarding excess loss, namely fast convergence rates of the order $O(n^{-\frac{\alpha}{1+\alpha}})$, where $\alpha$ is the minimum eigenvalue decay rate of the individual kernels.

For most scene understanding tasks (such as object detection or depth estimation), the classifiers need to consider contextual information in addition to the local features. We can capture such contextual information by taking as input the features/attributes from all the regions in the image. However, this contextual dependence also varies with the spatial location of the region of interest, and we therefore need a different set of parameters for each spatial location. This results in a very large number of parameters. In this work, we model the independence properties between the parameters for each location and for each task, by defining a Markov Random Field (MRF) over the parameters. In particular, two sets of parameters are encouraged to have similar values if they are spatially close or semantically close. Our method is, in principle, complementary to other ways of capturing context such as the ones that use a graphical model over the labels instead. In extensive evaluation over two different settings, of multi-class object detection and of multiple scene understanding tasks (scene categorization, depth estimation, geometric labeling), our method beats the state-of-the-art methods in all the four tasks.

Reinforcement learning models address animal's behavioral adaptation to its changing "external" environment, and are based on the assumption that Pavlovian, habitual and goal-directed responses seek to maximize reward acquisition. Negative-feedback models of homeostatic regulation, on the other hand, are concerned with behavioral adaptation in response to the "internal" state of the animal, and assume that animals' behavioral objective is to minimize deviations of some key physiological variables from their hypothetical setpoints. Building upon the drive-reduction theory of reward, we propose a new analytical framework that integrates learning and regulatory systems, such that the two seemingly unrelated objectives of reward maximization and physiological-stability prove to be identical. The proposed theory shows behavioral adaptation to both internal and external states in a disciplined way. We further show that the proposed framework allows for a unified explanation of some behavioral phenomenon like motivational sensitivity of different associative learning mechanism, anticipatory responses, interaction among competing motivational systems, and risk aversion.

We propose a novel Adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to compute the partition function. In particular, we show how to accelerate a flat histogram sampling technique by significantly reducing the number of ``null moves'' in the chain, while maintaining asymptotic convergence properties. Our experiments show that our method converges quickly to highly accurate solutions on a range of benchmark instances, outperforming other state-of-the-art methods such as IJGP, TRW, and Gibbs sampling both in run-time and accuracy. We also show how obtaining a so-called density of states distribution allows for efficient weight learning in Markov Logic theories.

Although the standard formulations of prediction problems involve fully-observed and noiseless data drawn in an i.i.d. manner, many applications involve noisy and/or missing data, possibly involving dependencies. We study these issues in the context of high-dimensional sparse linear regression, and propose novel estimators for the cases of noisy, missing, and/or dependent data. Many standard approaches to noisy or missing data, such as those using the EM algorithm, lead to optimization problems that are inherently non-convex, and it is difficult to establish theoretical guarantees on practical algorithms. While our approach also involves optimizing non-convex programs, we are able to both analyze the statistical error associated with any global optimum, and prove that a simple projected gradient descent algorithm will converge in polynomial time to a small neighborhood of the set of global minimizers. On the statistical side, we provide non-asymptotic bounds that hold with high probability for the cases of noisy, missing, and/or dependent data. On the computational side, we prove that under the same types of conditions required for statistical consistency, the projected gradient descent algorithm will converge at geometric rates to a near-global minimizer. We illustrate these theoretical predictions with simulations, showing agreement with the predicted scalings.

We consider the problem of Bayesian inference for continuous time multi-stable stochastic systems which can change both their diffusion and drift parameters at discrete times. We propose exact inference and sampling methodologies for two specific cases where the discontinuous dynamics is given by a Poisson process and a two-state Markovian switch. We test the methodology on simulated data, and apply it to two real data sets in finance and systems biology. Our experimental results show that the approach leads to valid inferences and non-trivial insights.

Latent tree graphical models are natural tools for expressing long range and hierarchical dependencies among many variables which are common in computer vision, bioinformatics and natural language processing problems. However, existing models are largely restricted to discrete and Gaussian variables due to computational constraints; furthermore, algorithms for estimating the latent tree structure and learning the model parameters are largely restricted to heuristic local search. We present a method based on kernel embeddings of distributions for latent tree graphical models with continuous and non-Gaussian variables. Our method can recover the latent tree structures with provable guarantees and perform local-minimum free parameter learning and efficient inference. Experiments on simulated and real data show the advantage of our proposed approach.

A model of human visual search is proposed. It predicts both response time (RT) and error rates (RT) as a function of image parameters such as target contrast and clutter. The model is an ideal observer, in that it optimizes the Bayes ratio of target present vs target absent. The ratio is computed on the firing pattern of V1/V2 neurons, modeledby Poisson distributions. The optimal mechanism for integrating information over time is shown to be a'soft max' of diffusions, computed over the visual field by'hypercolumns' of neurons that share the same receptive field and have different response properties to image features. An approximation of the optimal Bayesian observer, based on integrating local decisions, rather than diffusions, isalso derived; it is shown experimentally to produce very similar predictions to the optimal observer in common psychophysics conditions. A psychophyisics experiment is proposed that may discriminate between which mechanism is used in the human brain.