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Parametric Constructive Kripke-Semantics for Standard Multi-Agent Belief and Knowledge (Knowledge As Unbiased Belief)

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We propose parametric constructive Kripke-semantics for multi-agent KD45-belief and S5-knowledge in terms of elementary set-theoretic constructions of two basic functional building blocks, namely bias (or viewpoint) and visibility, functioning also as the parameters of the doxastic and epistemic accessibility relation. The doxastic accessibility relates two possible worlds whenever the application of the composition of bias with visibility to the first world is equal to the application of visibility to the second world. The epistemic accessibility is the transitive closure of the union of our doxastic accessibility and its converse. Therefrom, accessibility relations for common and distributed belief and knowledge can be constructed in a standard way. As a result, we obtain a general definition of knowledge in terms of belief that enables us to view S5-knowledge as accurate (unbiased and thus true) KD45-belief, negation-complete belief and knowledge as exact KD45-belief and S5-knowledge, respectively, and perfect S5-knowledge as precise (exact and accurate) KD45-belief, and all this generically for arbitrary functions of bias and visibility. Our results can be seen as a semantic complement to previous foundational results by Halpern et al. about the (un)definability and (non-)reducibility of knowledge in terms of and to belief, respectively.


Explaining Time-Table-Edge-Finding Propagation for the Cumulative Resource Constraint

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Cumulative resource constraints can model scarce resources in scheduling problems or a dimension in packing and cutting problems. In order to efficiently solve such problems with a constraint programming solver, it is important to have strong and fast propagators for cumulative resource constraints. One such propagator is the recently developed time-table-edge-finding propagator, which considers the current resource profile during the edge-finding propagation. Recently, lazy clause generation solvers, i.e. constraint programming solvers incorporating nogood learning, have proved to be excellent at solving scheduling and cutting problems. For such solvers, concise and accurate explanations of the reasons for propagation are essential for strong nogood learning. In this paper, we develop the first explaining version of time-table-edge-finding propagation and show preliminary results on resource-constrained project scheduling problems from various standard benchmark suites. On the standard benchmark suite PSPLib, we were able to close one open instance and to improve the lower bound of about 60% of the remaining open instances. Moreover, 6 of those instances were closed.


Bandits with heavy tail

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The stochastic multi-armed bandit problem is well understood when the reward distributions are sub-Gaussian. In this paper we examine the bandit problem under the weaker assumption that the distributions have moments of order 1+\epsilon, for some $\epsilon \in (0,1]$. Surprisingly, moments of order 2 (i.e., finite variance) are sufficient to obtain regret bounds of the same order as under sub-Gaussian reward distributions. In order to achieve such regret, we define sampling strategies based on refined estimators of the mean such as the truncated empirical mean, Catoni's M-estimator, and the median-of-means estimator. We also derive matching lower bounds that also show that the best achievable regret deteriorates when \epsilon <1.


On spatial selectivity and prediction across conditions with fMRI

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Functional neuroimaging data are currently routinely used to better understand cognitive processes. They rely heavily on previous findings to formulate hypotheses and narrow the search space to regions of interest (ROIs), most often reported as coordinates of activation peaks [1], or from coordinate databases such as BrainMap [2]. However, understanding the literature is increasingly difficult, so that there is a need for more systematic methods, which use the images themselves to characterize the functional specificity of brain regions [3]. Transfer learning is a method that trains a classifier to learn a discriminant model on a source task, and then generalizes on a target task without further training. It can yield insights on some brain mechanisms if the tasks share specific common effects in some brain regions [4]. The goal of this work is to investigate the power of transfer learning procedures applied to pairs of cognitive contrasts, where the discrimination ability of the classifier quantifies the information shared between brain maps, and thus characterizes at which spatial scale functional contrasts can be jointly classified. We show that in many cases, transfer learning gives poor results in terms of spatial selectivity. To address this limitation, we introduce selection transfer, i.e. classification of brain states on the target task following the canonical procedure [5], but using regions defined on the source task.


Bayesian Nonparametric Hidden Semi-Markov Models

arXiv.org Machine Learning

There is much interest in the Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Hidden Markov Model (HDP-HMM) as a natural Bayesian nonparametric extension of the ubiquitous Hidden Markov Model for learning from sequential and time-series data. However, in many settings the HDP-HMM's strict Markovian constraints are undesirable, particularly if we wish to learn or encode non-geometric state durations. We can extend the HDP-HMM to capture such structure by drawing upon explicit-duration semi-Markov modeling, which has been developed mainly in the parametric non-Bayesian setting, to allow construction of highly interpretable models that admit natural prior information on state durations. In this paper we introduce the explicit-duration Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Hidden semi-Markov Model (HDP-HSMM) and develop sampling algorithms for efficient posterior inference. The methods we introduce also provide new methods for sampling inference in the finite Bayesian HSMM. Our modular Gibbs sampling methods can be embedded in samplers for larger hierarchical Bayesian models, adding semi-Markov chain modeling as another tool in the Bayesian inference toolbox. We demonstrate the utility of the HDP-HSMM and our inference methods on both synthetic and real experiments.


Estimating Densities with Non-Parametric Exponential Families

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We propose a novel approach for density estimation with exponential families for the case when the true density may not fall within the chosen family. Our approach augments the sufficient statistics with features designed to accumulate probability mass in the neighborhood of the observed points, resulting in a non-parametric model similar to kernel density estimators. We show that under mild conditions, the resulting model uses only the sufficient statistics if the density is within the chosen exponential family, and asymptotically, it approximates densities outside of the chosen exponential family. Using the proposed approach, we modify the exponential random graph model, commonly used for modeling small-size graph distributions, to address the well-known issue of model degeneracy.


Distance Optimal Formation Control on Graphs with a Tight Convergence Time Guarantee

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this paper, we study the problem of controlling a group of indistinguishable agents with non-negligible sizes to take arbitrary desired formations. The agents, confined to an arbitrary connected graph, are capable of moving from one vertex to an adjacent vertex in one time step. The control policy must ensure that no collisions occur, which may happen when two agents attempt to move to the same vertex or move along the same edge. Counting each edge as having unit distance, we show that a (centralized) policy/schedule exists that moves the agents to the desired formation along paths having shortest total distance. The control policy also guarantees that a convergence time (the time when the formation is complete) of no more than n l 1, in which n is the number of agents,lis the maximum (shortest) distance between any two initial and goal vertices.


Optimal measures and Markov transition kernels

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We study optimal solutions to an abstract optimization problem for measures, which is a generalization of classical variational problems in information theory and statistical physics. In the classical problems, information and relative entropy are defined using the Kullback-Leibler divergence, and for this reason optimal measures belong to a one-parameter exponential family. Measures within such a family have the property of mutual absolute continuity. Here we show that this property characterizes other families of optimal positive measures if a functional representing information has a strictly convex dual. Mutual absolute continuity of optimal probability measures allows us to strictly separate deterministic and non-deterministic Markov transition kernels, which play an important role in theories of decisions, estimation, control, communication and computation. We show that deterministic transitions are strictly sub-optimal, unless information resource with a strictly convex dual is unconstrained. For illustration, we construct an example where, unlike non-deterministic, any deterministic kernel either has negatively infinite expected utility (unbounded expected error) or communicates infinite information.


Restricting exchangeable nonparametric distributions

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Distributions over exchangeable matrices with infinitely many columns, such as the Indian buffet process, are useful in constructing nonparametric latent variable models. However, the distribution implied by such models over the number of features exhibited by each data point may be poorly- suited for many modeling tasks. In this paper, we propose a class of exchangeable nonparametric priors obtained by restricting the domain of existing models. Such models allow us to specify the distribution over the number of features per data point, and can achieve better performance on data sets where the number of features is not well-modeled by the original distribution.


Learning Probability Measures with respect to Optimal Transport Metrics

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We study the problem of estimating, in the sense of optimal transport metrics, a measure which is assumed supported on a manifold embedded in a Hilbert space. By establishing a precise connection between optimal transport metrics, optimal quantization, and learning theory, we derive new probabilistic bounds for the performance of a classic algorithm in unsupervised learning (k-means), when used to produce a probability measure derived from the data. In the course of the analysis, we arrive at new lower bounds, as well as probabilistic upper bounds on the convergence rate of the empirical law of large numbers, which, unlike existing bounds, are applicable to a wide class of measures.