This paper is devoted to the search of robust solutions in state space graphs when costs depend on scenarios. We first present axiomatic requirements for preference compatibility with the intuitive idea of robustness.This leads us to propose the Lorenz dominance rule as a basis for robustness analysis. Then, after presenting complexity results about the determination of robust solutions, we propose a new sophistication of A* specially designed to determine the set of robust paths in a state space graph. The behavior of the algorithm is illustrated on a small example. Finally, an axiomatic justification of the refinement of robustness by an OWA criterion is provided.

This paper presents a scalable control algorithm that enables a deployed mobile robot to make high-level control decisions under full consideration of its probabilistic belief. We draw on insights from the rich literature of structured robot controllers and hierarchical MDPs to propose PolCA, a hierarchical probabilistic control algorithm which learns both subtask-specific state abstractions and policies. The resulting controller has been successfully implemented onboard a mobile robotic assistant deployed in a nursing facility. To the best of our knowledge, this work is a unique instance of applying POMDPs to highlevel robotic control problems.

This paper presents a scalable Bayesian technique for decentralized state estimation from multiple platforms in dynamic environments. As has long been recognized, centralized architectures impose severe scaling limitations for distributed systems due to the enormous communication overheads. We propose a strictly decentralized approach in which only nearby platforms exchange information. They do so through an interactive communication protocol aimed at maximizing information flow. Our approach is evaluated in the context of a distributed surveillance scenario that arises in a robotic system for playing the game of laser tag. Our results, both from simulation and using physical robots, illustrate an unprecedented scaling capability to large teams of vehicles.

The two most popular types of graphical model are directed models (Bayesian networks) and undirected models (Markov random fields, or MRFs). Directed and undirected models offer complementary properties in model construction, expressing conditional independencies, expressing arbitrary factorizations of joint distributions, and formulating message-passing inference algorithms. We show that the strengths of these two representations can be combined in a single type of graphical model called a 'factor graph'. Every Bayesian network or MRF can be easily converted to a factor graph that expresses the same conditional independencies, expresses the same factorization of the joint distribution, and can be used for probabilistic inference through application of a single, simple message-passing algorithm. In contrast to chain graphs, where message-passing is implemented on a hypergraph, message-passing can be directly implemented on the factor graph. We describe a modified 'Bayes-ball' algorithm for establishing conditional independence in factor graphs, and we show that factor graphs form a strict superset of Bayesian networks and MRFs. In particular, we give an example of a commonly-used 'mixture of experts' model fragment, whose independencies cannot be represented in a Bayesian network or an MRF, but can be represented in a factor graph. We finish by giving examples of real-world problems that are not well suited to representation in Bayesian networks and MRFs, but are well-suited to representation in factor graphs.

Identifying tractable subclasses and designing efficient algorithms for these tractable classes are important topics in the study of constraint satisfaction and Bayesian network inference problems. In this paper we investigate the asymptotic average behavior of a typical tractable subclass characterized by the treewidth of the problems. We show that the property of having a bounded treewidth in the constraint satisfaction problem and Bayesian network inference problem has a phase transition that occurs while the underlying structures of problems are still sparse. This implies that algorithms making use of treewidth based structural knowledge only work efficiently in a limited range of random instances. INTRODUCTION It is well known that many NP complete problems have tractable subclasses characterized by certain structural parameters.

This paper studies decision making for Walley's partially consonant belief functions (pcb). In a pcb, the set of foci are partitioned. Within each partition, the foci are nested. The pcb class includes probability functions and possibility functions as extreme cases. Unlike earlier proposals for a decision theory with belief functions, we employ an axiomatic approach. We adopt an axiom system similar in spirit to von Neumann - Morgenstern's linear utility theory for a preference relation on pcb lotteries. We prove a representation theorem for this relation. Utility for a pcb lottery is a combination of linear utility for probabilistic lottery and binary utility for possibilistic lottery.

This paper examines a number of solution methods for decision processes with non-Markovian rewards (NMRDPs). They all exploit a temporal logic specification of the reward function to automatically translate the NMRDP into an equivalent Markov decision process (MDP) amenable to well-known MDP solution methods. They differ however in the representation of the target MDP and the class of MDP solution methods to which they are suited. As a result, they adopt different temporal logics and different translations. Unfortunately, no implementation of these methods nor experimental let alone comparative results have ever been reported. This paper is the first step towards filling this gap. We describe an integrated system for solving NMRDPs which implements these methods and several variants under a common interface; we use it to compare the various approaches and identify the problem features favoring one over the other.

Real-world distributed systems and networks are often unreliable and subject to random failures of its components. Such a stochastic behavior affects adversely the complexity of optimization tasks performed routinely upon such systems, in particular, various resource allocation tasks. In this work we investigate and develop Monte Carlo solutions for a class of two-stage optimization problems in stochastic networks in which the expected value of resource allocations before and after stochastic failures needs to be optimized. The limitation of these problems is that their exact solutions are exponential in the number of unreliable network components: thus, exact methods do not scale-up well to large networks often seen in practice. We first prove that Monte Carlo optimization methods can overcome the exponential bottleneck of exact methods. Next we support our theoretical findings on resource allocation experiments and show a very good scale-up potential of the new methods to large stochastic networks.

Loopy and generalized belief propagation are popular algorithms for approximate inference in Markov random fields and Bayesian networks. Fixed points of these algorithms correspond to extrema of the Bethe and Kikuchi free energy. However, belief propagation does not always converge, which explains the need for approaches that explicitly minimize the Kikuchi/Bethe free energy, such as CCCP and UPS. Here we describe a class of algorithms that solves this typically nonconvex constrained minimization of the Kikuchi free energy through a sequence of convex constrained minimizations of upper bounds on the Kikuchi free energy. Intuitively one would expect tighter bounds to lead to faster algorithms, which is indeed convincingly demonstrated in our simulations. Several ideas are applied to obtain tight convex bounds that yield dramatic speed-ups over CCCP.

We analyze a new property of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs), called layerwidth, arising from a class of DAGs proposed by Eiter and Lukasiewicz. This class of DAGs permits certain problems of structural model-based causality and explanation to be tractably solved. In this paper, we first address an open question raised by Eiter and Lukasiewicz - the computational complexity of deciding whether a given graph has a bounded layerwidth. After proving that this problem is NP-complete, we proceed by proving numerous important properties of layerwidth that are helpful in efficiently computing the optimal layerwidth. Finally, we compare this new DAG property to two other important DAG properties: treewidth and bandwidth.