We consider the problem of estimating Shannon's entropy H in the under-sampled regime, where the number of possible symbols may be unknown or countably infinite. Pitman-Yor processes (a generalization of Dirichlet processes) provide tractable prior distributions over the space of countably infinite discrete distributions, and have found major applications in Bayesian non-parametric statistics and machine learning. Here we show that they also provide natural priors for Bayesian entropy estimation, due to the remarkable fact that the moments of the induced posterior distribution over H can be computed analytically. We derive formulas for the posterior mean (Bayes' least squares estimate) and variance under such priors. Moreover, we show that a fixed Dirichlet or Pitman-Yor process prior implies a narrow prior on H, meaning the prior strongly determines the entropy estimate in the under-sampled regime. We derive a family of continuous mixing measures such that the resulting mixture of Pitman-Yor processes produces an approximately flat (improper) prior over H. We explore the theoretical properties of the resulting estimator, and show that it performs well on data sampled from both exponential and power-law tailed distributions.

Markov logic is a widely used tool in statistical relational learning, which uses a weighted first-order logic knowledge base to specify a Markov random field (MRF) or a conditional random field (CRF). In many applications, a Markov logic network (MLN) is trained in one domain, but used in a different one. This paper focuses on dynamic Markov logic networks, where the domain of time points typically varies between training and testing. It has been previously pointed out that the marginal probabilities of truth assignments to ground atoms can change if one extends or reduces the domains of predicates in an MLN. We show that in addition to this problem, the standard way of unrolling a Markov logic theory into a MRF may result in time-inhomogeneity of the underlying Markov chain. Furthermore, even if these representational problems are not significant for a given domain, we show that the more practical problem of generating samples in a sequential conditional random field for the next slice relying on the samples from the previous slice has high computational cost in the general case, due to the need to estimate a normalization factor for each sample. We propose a new discriminative model, slice normalized dynamic Markov logic networks (SN-DMLN), that suffers from none of these issues. It supports efficient online inference, and can directly model influences between variables within a time slice that do not have a causal direction, in contrast with fully directed models (e.g., DBNs). Experimental results show an improvement in accuracy over previous approaches to online inference in dynamic Markov logic networks.

We present a reformulation of the information bottleneck (IB) problem in terms of copula, using the equivalence between mutual information and negative copula entropy. Focusing on the Gaussian copula we extend the analytical IB solution available for the multivariate Gaussian case to distributions with a Gaussian dependence structure but arbitrary marginal densities, also called meta-Gaussian distributions. This opens new possibles applications of IB to continuous data and provides a solution more robust to outliers.

Discrete mixtures are used routinely in broad sweeping applications ranging from unsupervised settings to fully supervised multi-task learning. Indeed, finite mixtures and infinite mixtures, relying on Dirichlet processes and modifications, have become a standard tool. One important issue that arises in using discrete mixtures is low separation in the components; in particular, different components can be introduced that are very similar and hence redundant. Such redundancy leads to too many clusters that are too similar, degrading performance in unsupervised learning and leading to computational problems and an unnecessarily complex model in supervised settings. Redundancy can arise in the absence of a penalty on components placed close together even when a Bayesian approach is used to learn the number of components. To solve this problem, we propose a novel prior that generates components from a repulsive process, automatically penalizing redundant components. We characterize this repulsive prior theoretically and propose a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm for posterior computation. The methods are illustrated using synthetic examples and an iris data set.

A key function of brains is undoubtedly the abstraction and maintenance of information from the environment for later use. Neurons in association cortex play an important role in this process: during learning these neurons become tuned to relevant features and represent the information that is required later as a persistent elevation of their activity. It is however not well known how these neurons acquire their task-relevant tuning. Here we introduce a biologically plausible learning scheme that explains how neurons become selective for relevant information when animals learn by trial and error. We propose that the action selection stage feeds back attentional signals to earlier processing levels. These feedback signals interact with feedforward signals to form synaptic tags at those connections that are responsible for the stimulus-response mapping. A globally released neuromodulatory signal interacts with these tagged synapses to determine the sign and strength of plasticity. The learning scheme is generic because it can train networks in different tasks, simply by varying inputs and rewards. It explains how neurons in association cortex learn to (1) temporarily store task-relevant information in non-linear stimulus-response mapping tasks and (2) learn to optimally integrate probabilistic evidence for perceptual decision making.

Statistical models for networks have been typically committed to strong prior assumptions concerning the form of the modeled distributions. Moreover, the vast majority of currently available models are explicitly designed for capturing some specific graph properties (such as power-law degree distributions), which makes them unsuitable for application to domains where the behavior of the target quantities is not known a priori. The key contribution of this paper is twofold. First, we introduce the Fiedler delta statistic, based on the Laplacian spectrum of graphs, which allows to dispense with any parametric assumption concerning the modeled network properties. Second, we use the defined statistic to develop the Fiedler random field model, which allows for efficient estimation of edge distributions over large-scale random networks. After analyzing the dependence structure involved in Fiedler random fields, we estimate them over several real-world networks, showing that they achieve a much higher modeling accuracy than other well-known statistical approaches.

The National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC) database contains a large amount of information, regarding the way of life, medical conditions, depression, etc., of a representative sample of the U.S. population. In the present paper, we are interested in seeking the hidden causes behind the suicide attempts, for which we propose to model the subjects using a nonparametric latent model based on the Indian Buffet Process (IBP). Due to the nature of the data, we need to adapt the observation model for discrete random variables. We propose a generative model in which the observations are drawn from a multinomial-logit distribution given the IBP matrix. The implementation of an efficient Gibbs sampler is accomplished using the Laplace approximation, which allows us to integrate out the weighting factors of the multinomial-logit likelihood model. Finally, the experiments over the NESARC database show that our model properly captures some of the hidden causes that model suicide attempts.

Neural adaptation underlies the ability of neurons to maximize encoded information over a wide dynamic range of input stimuli. While adaptation is an intrinsic feature of neuronal models like the Hodgkin-Huxley model, the challenge is to integrate adaptation in models of neural computation. Recent computational models like the Adaptive Spike Response Model implement adaptation as spike-based addition of fixed-size fast spike-triggered threshold dynamics and slow spike-triggered currents. Such adaptation has been shown to accurately model neural spiking behavior over a limited dynamic range. Taking a cue from kinetic models of adaptation, we propose a multiplicative Adaptive Spike Response Model where the spike-triggered adaptation dynamics are scaled multiplicatively by the adaptation state at the time of spiking. We show that unlike the additive adaptation model, the firing rate in the multiplicative adaptation model saturates to a maximum spike-rate. When simulating variance switching experiments, the model also quantitatively fits the experimental data over a wide dynamic range. Furthermore, dynamic threshold models of adaptation suggest a straightforward interpretation of neural activity in terms of dynamic signal encoding with shifted and weighted exponential kernels. We show that when thus encoding rectified filtered stimulus signals, the multiplicative Adaptive Spike Response Model achieves a high coding efficiency and maintains this efficiency over changes in the dynamic signal range of several orders of magnitude, without changing model parameters.

We consider infinite-horizon stationary $\gamma$-discounted Markov Decision Processes, for which it is known that there exists a stationary optimal policy. Using Value and Policy Iteration with some error $\epsilon$ at each iteration, it is well-known that one can compute stationary policies that are $\frac{2\gamma{(1-\gamma)^2}\epsilon$-optimal. After arguing that this guarantee is tight, we develop variations of Value and Policy Iteration for computing non-stationary policies that can be up to $\frac{2\gamma}{1-\gamma}\epsilon$-optimal, which constitutes a significant improvement in the usual situation when $\gamma$ is close to $1$. Surprisingly, this shows that the problem of ``computing near-optimal non-stationary policies'' is much simpler than that of ``computing near-optimal stationary policies''.

We present a novel method for learning densities with bounded support which enables us to incorporate `hard' topological constraints. In particular, we show how emerging techniques from computational algebraic topology and the notion of Persistent Homology can be combined with kernel based methods from Machine Learning for the purpose of density estimation. The proposed formalism facilitates learning of models with bounded support in a principled way, and -- by incorporating Persistent Homology techniques in our approach -- we are able to encode algebraic-topological constraints which are not addressed in current state-of the art probabilistic models. We study the behaviour of our method on two synthetic examples for various sample sizes and exemplify the benefits of the proposed approach on a real-world data-set by learning a motion model for a racecar. We show how to learn a model which respects the underlying topological structure of the racetrack, constraining the trajectories of the car.