Modern machine learning methods are critical to the development of large-scale personalized learning systems that cater directly to the needs of individual learners. The recently developed SPARse Factor Analysis (SPARFA) framework provides a new statistical model and algorithms for machine learning-based learning analytics, which estimate a learner's knowledge of the latent concepts underlying a domain, and content analytics, which estimate the relationships among a collection of questions and the latent concepts. SPARFA estimates these quantities given only the binary-valued graded responses to a collection of questions. In order to better interpret the estimated latent concepts, SPARFA relies on a post-processing step that utilizes user-defined tags (e.g., topics or keywords) available for each question. In this paper, we relax the need for user-defined tags by extending SPARFA to jointly process both graded learner responses and the text of each question and its associated answer(s) or other feedback. Our purely data-driven approach (i) enhances the interpretability of the estimated latent concepts without the need of explicitly generating a set of tags or performing a post-processing step, (ii) improves the prediction performance of SPARFA, and (iii) scales to large test/assessments where human annotation would prove burdensome. We demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approach on two real educational datasets.

We investigate connections between information-theoretic and estimation-theoretic quantities in vector Poisson channel models. In particular, we generalize the gradient of mutual information with respect to key system parameters from the scalar to the vector Poisson channel model. We also propose, as another contribution, a generalization of the classical Bregman divergence that offers a means to encapsulate under a unifying framework the gradient of mutual information results for scalar and vector Poisson and Gaussian channel models. The so-called generalized Bregman divergence is also shown to exhibit various properties akin to the properties of the classical version. The vector Poisson channel model is drawing considerable attention in view of its application in various domains: as an example, the availability of the gradient of mutual information can be used in conjunction with gradient descent methods to effect compressive-sensing projection designs in emerging X-ray and document classification applications.

We propose an original model for inferring team strengths using a Markov Random Field, which can be used to generate historical estimates of the offensive and defensive strengths of a team over time. This model was designed to be applied to sports such as soccer or hockey, in which contest outcomes take value in a limited discrete space. We perform inference using a combination of Expectation Maximization and Loopy Belief Propagation. The challenges of working with a non-convex optimization problem and a high-dimensional parameter space are discussed. The performance of the model is demonstrated on professional soccer data from the English Premier League.

As a testament to their success, the theory of random forests has long been outpaced by their application in practice. In this paper, we take a step towards narrowing this gap by providing a consistency result for online random forests.

We extend kernelized matrix factorization with a fully Bayesian treatment and with an ability to work with multiple side information sources expressed as different kernels. Kernel functions have been introduced to matrix factorization to integrate side information about the rows and columns (e.g., objects and users in recommender systems), which is necessary for making out-of-matrix (i.e., cold start) predictions. We discuss specifically bipartite graph inference, where the output matrix is binary, but extensions to more general matrices are straightforward. We extend the state of the art in two key aspects: (i) A fully conjugate probabilistic formulation of the kernelized matrix factorization problem enables an efficient variational approximation, whereas fully Bayesian treatments are not computationally feasible in the earlier approaches. (ii) Multiple side information sources are included, treated as different kernels in multiple kernel learning that additionally reveals which side information sources are informative. Our method outperforms alternatives in predicting drug-protein interactions on two data sets. We then show that our framework can also be used for solving multilabel learning problems by considering samples and labels as the two domains where matrix factorization operates on. Our algorithm obtains the lowest Hamming loss values on 10 out of 14 multilabel classification data sets compared to five state-of-the-art multilabel learning algorithms.

Brain signal variability in the measurements obtained from different subjects during different sessions significantly deteriorates the accuracy of most brain-computer interface (BCI) systems. Moreover these variabilities, also known as inter-subject or inter-session variabilities, require lengthy calibration sessions before the BCI system can be used. Furthermore, the calibration session has to be repeated for each subject independently and before use of the BCI due to the inter-session variability. In this study, we present an algorithm in order to minimize the above-mentioned variabilities and to overcome the time-consuming and usually error-prone calibration time. Our algorithm is based on linear programming support-vector machines and their extensions to a multiple kernel learning framework. We tackle the inter-subject or -session variability in the feature spaces of the classifiers. This is done by incorporating each subject- or session-specific feature spaces into much richer feature spaces with a set of optimal decision boundaries. Each decision boundary represents the subject- or a session specific spatio-temporal variabilities of neural signals. Consequently, a single classifier with multiple feature spaces will generalize well to new unseen test patterns even without the calibration steps. We demonstrate that classifiers maintain good performances even under the presence of a large degree of BCI variability. The present study analyzes BCI variability related to oxy-hemoglobin neural signals measured using a functional near-infrared spectroscopy.

The parameters of temporal models, such as dynamic Bayesian networks, may be modelled in a Bayesian context as static or atemporal variables that influence transition probabilities at every time step. Particle filters fail for models that include such variables, while methods that use Gibbs sampling of parameter variables may incur a per-sample cost that grows linearly with the length of the observation sequence. Storvik devised a method for incremental computation of exact sufficient statistics that, for some cases, reduces the per-sample cost to a constant. In this paper, we demonstrate a connection between Storvik's filter and a Kalman filter in parameter space and establish more general conditions under which Storvik's filter works. Drawing on an analogy to the extended Kalman filter, we develop and analyze, both theoretically and experimentally, a Taylor approximation to the parameter posterior that allows Storvik's method to be applied to a broader class of models. Our experiments on both synthetic examples and real applications show improvement over existing methods.

Most real-world Planning problems are multi-objective, trying to minimize both the makespan of the solution plan, and some cost of the actions involved in the plan. But most, if not all existing approaches are based on single-objective planners, and use an aggregation of the objectives to remain in the single-objective context. Divide and Evolve (DaE) is an evolutionary planner that won the temporal deterministic satisficing track at the last International Planning Competitions (IPC). Like all Evolutionary Algorithms (EA), it can easily be turned into a Pareto-based Multi-Objective EA. It is however important to validate the resulting algorithm by comparing it with the aggregation approach: this is the goal of this paper. The comparative experiments on a recently proposed benchmark set that are reported here demonstrate the usefulness of going Pareto-based in AI Planning.

In this paper, we address the problem of enumerating all models of a Boolean formula in conjunctive normal form (CNF). We propose an extension of CDCL-based SAT solvers to deal with this fundamental problem. Then, we provide an experimental evaluation of our proposed SAT model enumeration algorithms on both satisfiable SAT instances taken from the last SAT challenge and on instances from the SAT-based encoding of sequence mining problems.

Probabilistic k-nearest neighbour (PKNN) classification has been introduced to improve the performance of original k-nearest neighbour (KNN) classification algorithm by explicitly modelling uncertainty in the classification of each feature vector. However, an issue common to both KNN and PKNN is to select the optimal number of neighbours, $k$. The contribution of this paper is to incorporate the uncertainty in $k$ into the decision making, and in so doing use Bayesian model averaging to provide improved classification. Indeed the problem of assessing the uncertainty in $k$ can be viewed as one of statistical model selection which is one of the most important technical issues in the statistics and machine learning domain. In this paper, a new functional approximation algorithm is proposed to reconstruct the density of the model (order) without relying on time consuming Monte Carlo simulations. In addition, this algorithm avoids cross validation by adopting Bayesian framework. The performance of this algorithm yielded very good performance on several real experimental datasets.