Why are some events more surprising than others? We propose that events that are more difficult to explain are those that are more surprising. The two experiments reported here test the impact of different event outcomes (Outcome-Type) and task demands (Task) on ratings of surprise for simple story scenarios. For the Outcome-Type variable, participants saw outcomes that were either known or less-known surprising outcomes for each scenario. For the Task variable, participants either answered comprehension questions or provided an explanation of the outcome. Outcome-Type reliably affected surprise judgments; known outcomes were rated as less surprising than less-known outcomes. Task also reliably affected surprise judgments; when people provided an explanation it lowered surprise judgments relative to simply answering comprehension questions. Both experiments thus provide evidence on this less-explored explanation aspect of surprise, specifically showing that ease of explanation is a key factor in determining the level of surprise experienced.

This paper advances a framework for modeling the component interactions between cognitive and social aspects of scientific creativity and technological innovation. Specifically, it aims to characterize Innovation Networks; those networks that involve the interplay of people, ideas and organizations to create new, technologically feasible, commercially-realizable products, processes and organizational structures. The tri-partite framework captures networks of ideas (Concept Level), people (Individual Level) and social structures (Social-Organizational Level) and the interactions between these levels. At the concept level, new ideas are the nodes that are created and linked, kept open for further investigation or closed if solved by actors at the individual or organizational levels. At the individual level, the nodes are actors linked by shared worldviews (based on shared professional, educational, experiential backgrounds) who are the builders of the concept level. At the social-organizational level, the nodes are organizations linked by common efforts on a given project (e.g., a company-university collaboration) that by virtue of their intellectual property or rules of governance constrain the actions of individuals (at the Individual Level) or ideas (at the Concept Level). After describing this framework and its implications we paint a number of scenarios to flesh out how it can be applied.

Principal components analysis (PCA) is a standard tool for identifying good low-dimensional approximations to data in high dimension. Many data sets of interest contain private or sensitive information about individuals. Algorithms which operate on such data should be sensitive to the privacy risks in publishing their outputs. Differential privacy is a framework for developing tradeoffs between privacy and the utility of these outputs. In this paper we investigate the theory and empirical performance of differentially private approximations to PCA and propose a new method which explicitly optimizes the utility of the output. We show that the sample complexity of the proposed method differs from the existing procedure in the scaling with the data dimension, and that our method is nearly optimal in terms of this scaling. We furthermore illustrate our results, showing that on real data there is a large performance gap between the existing method and our method.

Many real-world problems are dynamic optimization problems. In this case, the optima in the environment change dynamically. Therefore, traditional optimization algorithms disable to track and find optima. In this paper, a new multi-swarm cellular particle swarm optimization based on clonal selection algorithm (CPSOC) is proposed for dynamic environments. In the proposed algorithm, the search space is partitioned into cells by a cellular automaton. Clustered particles in each cell, which make a sub-swarm, are evolved by the particle swarm optimization and clonal selection algorithm. Experimental results on Moving Peaks Benchmark demonstrate the superiority of the CPSOC its popular methods.

Linear active-power-only DC power flow approximations are pervasive in the planning and control of power systems. However, these approximations fail to capture reactive power and voltage magnitudes, both of which are necessary in many applications to ensure voltage stability and AC power flow feasibility. This paper proposes linear-programming models (the LPAC models) that incorporate reactive power and voltage magnitudes in a linear power flow approximation. The LPAC models are built on a convex approximation of the cosine terms in the AC equations, as well as Taylor approximations of the remaining nonlinear terms. Experimental comparisons with AC solutions on a variety of standard IEEE and MatPower benchmarks show that the LPAC models produce accurate values for active and reactive power, phase angles, and voltage magnitudes. The potential benefits of the LPAC models are illustrated on two "proof-of-concept" studies in power restoration and capacitor placement.

We study pathwise invariances of centred random fields that can be controlled through the covariance. A result involving composition operators is obtained in second-order settings, and we show that various path properties including additivity boil down to invariances of the covariance kernel. These results are extended to a broader class of operators in the Gaussian case, via the Lo\`eve isometry. Several covariance-driven pathwise invariances are illustrated, including fields with symmetric paths, centred paths, harmonic paths, or sparse paths. The proposed approach delivers a number of promising results and perspectives in Gaussian process regression.

This is a preliminary theoretical discussion on the computational requirements of the state of the art smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) from the optics of pattern recognition and artificial intelligence. It is pointed out in the present paper that, when including anisotropy detection to improve resolution on shock layer, SPH is a very peculiar case of unsupervised machine learning. On the other hand, the free particle nature of SPH opens an opportunity for artificial intelligence to study particles as agents acting in a collaborative framework in which the timed outcomes of a fluid simulation forms a large knowledge base, which might be very attractive in computational astrophysics phenomenological problems like self-propagating star formation.

Water pipe failures can not only have a great impact on people's daily life but also cause significant waste of water which is an essential and precious resource to human beings. As a result, preventative maintenance for water pipes, particularly in urban-scale networks, is of great importance for a sustainable society. To achieve effective replacement and rehabilitation, failure prediction aims to proactively find those `most-likely-to-fail' pipes becomes vital and has been attracting more attention from both academia and industry, especially from the civil engineering field. This paper presents an already-deployed industrial computational system for pipe failure prediction. As an alternative to risk matrix methods often depending on ad-hoc domain heuristics, learning based methods are adopted using the attributes with respect to physical, environmental, operational conditions and etc. Further challenge arises in practice when lacking of profile attributes. A dive into the failure records shows that the failure event sequences typically exhibit temporal clustering patterns, which motivates us to use the stochastic process to tackle the failure prediction task. Specifically, the failure sequence is formulated as a self-exciting stochastic process which is, to our best knowledge, a novel formulation for pipe failure prediction. And we show that it outperforms a baseline assuming the failure risk grows linearly with aging. Broad new problems and research points for the machine learning community are also introduced for future work.

Probabilistic abstract argumentation combines Dung's abstract argumentation framework with probability theory in order to model uncertainty in argumentation. In this setting, we address the fundamental problem of computing the probability that a set of arguments is an extension according to a given semantics. We focus on the most popular semantics (i.e., admissible, stable, complete, grounded, preferred, ideal), and show the following dichotomy result: computing the probability that a set of arguments is an extension is either PTIME or FP #P -complete depending on the semantics adopted. Our PTIME results are particularly interesting, as they hold for some semantics for which no polynomial-time technique was known so far.

We propose a collaborative filtering (CF) recommendation framework which is based on viewing user feedback on products as ordinal, rather than the more common numerical view. Such an ordinal view frequently provides a more natural reflection of the user intention when providing qualitative ratings, allowing users to have different internal scoring scales. Moreover, we can address scenarios where assigning numerical scores to different types of user feedback would not be easy. The framework can wrap most collaborative filtering algorithms, enabling algorithms previously designed for numerical values to handle ordinal values. We demonstrate our framework by wrapping a leading matrix factorization CF method. A cornerstone of our method is its ability to predict a full probability distribution of the expected item ratings, rather than only a single score for an item. One of the advantages this brings is a novel approach to estimating the confidence level in each individual prediction. Compared to previous approaches to confidence estimation, ours is more principled and empirically superior in its accuracy. We demonstrate the efficacy of the approach on two of the largest publicly available datasets: the Netflix data and the Yahoo! Music data.