Gaussian processes are typically used for smoothing and interpolation on small datasets. We introduce a new Bayesian nonparametric framework -- GPatt -- enabling automatic pattern extrapolation with Gaussian processes on large multidimensional datasets. GPatt unifies and extends highly expressive kernels and fast exact inference techniques. Without human intervention -- no hand crafting of kernel features, and no sophisticated initialisation procedures -- we show that GPatt can solve large scale pattern extrapolation, inpainting, and kernel discovery problems, including a problem with 383400 training points. We find that GPatt significantly outperforms popular alternative scalable Gaussian process methods in speed and accuracy. Moreover, we discover profound differences between each of these methods, suggesting expressive kernels, nonparametric representations, and exact inference are useful for modelling large scale multidimensional patterns.

Language users are remarkably good at making inferences about speakers' intentions in context, and children learning their native language also display substantial skill in acquiring the meanings of unknown words. These two cases are deeply related: Language users invent new terms in conversation, and language learners learn the literal meanings of words based on their pragmatic inferences about how those words are used. While pragmatic inference and word learning have both been independently characterized in probabilistic terms, no current work unifies these two. We describe a model in which language learners assume that they jointly approximate a shared, external lexicon and reason recursively about the goals of others in using this lexicon. This model captures phenomena in word learning and pragmatic inference; it additionally leads to insights about the emergence of communicative systems in conversation and the mechanisms by which pragmatic inferences become incorporated into word meanings.

Latent variable prediction models, such as multi-layer networks, impose auxiliary latent variables between inputs and outputs to allow automatic inference of implicit features useful for prediction. Unfortunately, such models are difficult to train because inference over latent variables must be performed concurrently with parameter optimization---creating a highly non-convex problem. Instead of proposing another local training method, we develop a convex relaxation of hidden-layer conditional models that admits global training. Our approach extends current convex modeling approaches to handle two nested nonlinearities separated by a non-trivial adaptive latent layer. The resulting methods are able to acquire two-layer models that cannot be represented by any single-layer model over the same features, while improving training quality over local heuristics.

We consider streaming, one-pass principal component analysis (PCA), in the high-dimensional regime, with limited memory. Here, $p$-dimensional samples are presented sequentially, and the goal is to produce the $k$-dimensional subspace that best approximates these points. Standard algorithms require $O(p^2)$ memory; meanwhile no algorithm can do better than $O(kp)$ memory, since this is what the output itself requires. Memory (or storage) complexity is most meaningful when understood in the context of computational and sample complexity. Sample complexity for high-dimensional PCA is typically studied in the setting of the {\em spiked covariance model}, where $p$-dimensional points are generated from a population covariance equal to the identity (white noise) plus a low-dimensional perturbation (the spike) which is the signal to be recovered. It is now well-understood that the spike can be recovered when the number of samples, $n$, scales proportionally with the dimension, $p$. Yet, all algorithms that provably achieve this, have memory complexity $O(p^2)$. Meanwhile, algorithms with memory-complexity $O(kp)$ do not have provable bounds on sample complexity comparable to $p$. We present an algorithm that achieves both: it uses $O(kp)$ memory (meaning storage of any kind) and is able to compute the $k$-dimensional spike with $O(p \log p)$ sample-complexity -- the first algorithm of its kind. While our theoretical analysis focuses on the spiked covariance model, our simulations show that our algorithm is successful on much more general models for the data.

Learning a visual concept from a small number of positive examples is a significant challenge for machine learning algorithms. Current methods typically fail to find the appropriate level of generalization in a concept hierarchy for a given set of visual examples. Recent work in cognitive science on Bayesian models of generalization addresses this challenge, but prior results assumed that objects were perfectly recognized. We present an algorithm for learning visual concepts directly from images, using probabilistic predictions generated by visual classifiers as the input to a Bayesian generalization model. As no existing challenge data tests this paradigm, we collect and make available a new, large-scale dataset for visual concept learning using the ImageNet hierarchy as the source of possible concepts, with human annotators to provide ground truth labels as to whether a new image is an instance of each concept using a paradigm similar to that used in experiments studying word learning in children. We compare the performance of our system to several baseline algorithms, and show a significant advantage results from combining visual classifiers with the ability to identify an appropriate level of abstraction using Bayesian generalization.

An incredible gulf separates theoretical models of synapses, often described solely by a single scalar value denoting the size of a postsynaptic potential, from the immense complexity of molecular signaling pathways underlying real synapses. To understand the functional contribution of such molecular complexity to learning and memory, it is essential to expand our theoretical conception of a synapse from a single scalar to an entire dynamical system with many internal molecular functional states. Moreover, theoretical considerations alone demand such an expansion; network models with scalar synapses assuming finite numbers of distinguishable synaptic strengths have strikingly limited memory capacity. This raises the fundamental question, how does synaptic complexity give rise to memory? To address this, we develop new mathematical theorems elucidating the relationship between the structural organization and memory properties of complex synapses that are themselves molecular networks. Moreover, in proving such theorems, we uncover a framework, based on first passage time theory, to impose an order on the internal states of complex synaptic models, thereby simplifying the relationship between synaptic structure and function.

We consider the stochastic multi-armed bandit problem with a prior distribution on the reward distributions. We are interested in studying prior-free and prior-dependent regret bounds, very much in the same spirit than the usual distribution-free and distribution-dependent bounds for the non-Bayesian stochastic bandit. We first show that Thompson Sampling attains an optimal prior-free bound in the sense that for any prior distribution its Bayesian regret is bounded from above by $14 \sqrt{n K}$. This result is unimprovable in the sense that there exists a prior distribution such that any algorithm has a Bayesian regret bounded from below by $\frac{1}{20} \sqrt{n K}$. We also study the case of priors for the setting of Bubeck et al. [2013] (where the optimal mean is known as well as a lower bound on the smallest gap) and we show that in this case the regret of Thompson Sampling is in fact uniformly bounded over time, thus showing that Thompson Sampling can greatly take advantage of the nice properties of these priors.

The problem of matching not just two, but m different sets of objects to each other arises in a variety of contexts, including finding the correspondence between feature points across multiple images in computer vision. At present it is usually solved by matching the sets pairwise, in series. In contrast, we propose a new method, permutation synchronization, which finds all the matchings jointly, in one shot, via a relaxation to eigenvector decomposition. The resulting algorithm is both computationally efficient, and, as we demonstrate with theoretical arguments as well as experimental results, much more stable to noise than previous methods.

We establish minimax risk lower bounds for distributed statistical estimation given a budget $B$ of the total number of bits that may be communicated. Such lower bounds in turn reveal the minimum amount of communication required by any procedure to achieve the classical optimal rate for statistical estimation. We study two classes of protocols in which machines send messages either independently or interactively. The lower bounds are established for a variety of problems, from estimating the mean of a population to estimating parameters in linear regression or binary classification.

Analytic shrinkage is a statistical technique that offers a fast alternative to cross-validation for the regularization of covariance matrices and has appealing consistency properties. We show that the proof of consistency implies bounds on the growth rates of eigenvalues and their dispersion, which are often violated in data. We prove consistency under assumptions which do not restrict the covariance structure and therefore better match real world data. In addition, we propose an extension of analytic shrinkage --orthogonal complement shrinkage-- which adapts to the covariance structure. Finally we demonstrate the superior performance of our novel approach on data from the domains of finance, spoken letter and optical character recognition, and neuroscience.