Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) provide a rich framework for sequential decision-making under uncertainty in stochastic domains. However, solving a POMDP is often intractable except for small problems due to their complexity. Here, we focus on online approaches that alleviate the computational complexity by computing good local policies at each decision step during the execution. Online algorithms generally consist of a lookahead search to find the best action to execute at each time step in an environment. Our objectives here are to survey the various existing online POMDP methods, analyze their properties and discuss their advantages and disadvantages; and to thoroughly evaluate these online approaches in different environments under various metrics (return, error bound reduction, lower bound improvement). Our experimental results indicate that state-of-the-art online heuristic search methods can handle large POMDP domains efficiently.

A phylogenetic tree shows the evolutionary relationships among species. Internal nodes of the tree represent speciation events and leaf nodes correspond to species. A goal of phylogenetics is to combine such trees into larger trees, called supertrees, whilst respecting the relationships in the original trees. A rooted tree exhibits an ultrametric property; that is, for any three leaves of the tree it must be that one pair has a deeper most recent common ancestor than the other pairs, or that all three have the same most recent common ancestor. This inspires a constraint programming encoding for rooted trees. We present an efficient constraint that enforces the ultrametric property over a symmetric array of constrained integer variables, with the inevitable property that the lower bounds of any three variables are mutually supportive. We show that this allows an efficient constraint-based solution to the supertree construction problem. We demonstrate that the versatility of constraint programming can be exploited to allow solutions to variants of the supertree construction problem.

Literature on Constraint Satisfaction exhibits the definition of several structural properties that can be possessed by CSPs, like (in)consistency, substitutability or interchangeability. Current tools for constraint solving typically detect such properties efficiently by means of incomplete yet effective algorithms, and use them to reduce the search space and boost search. In this paper, we provide a unifying framework encompassing most of the properties known so far, both in CSP and other fields literature, and shed light on the semantical relationships among them. This gives a unified and comprehensive view of the topic, allows new, unknown, properties to emerge, and clarifies the computational complexity of the various detection problems. In particular, among the others, two new concepts, fixability and removability emerge, that come out to be the ideal characterisations of values that may be safely assigned or removed from a variables domain, while preserving problem satisfiability. These two notions subsume a large number of known properties, including inconsistency, substitutability and others. Because of the computational intractability of all the property-detection problems, by following the CSP approach we then determine a number of relaxations which provide sufficient conditions for their tractability. In particular, we exploit forms of language restrictions and local reasoning.

A new search algorithm for solving distributed constraint optimization problems (DisCOPs) is presented. Agents assign variables sequentially and compute bounds on partial assignments asynchronously. The asynchronous bounds computation is based on the propagation of partial assignments. The asynchronous forward-bounding algorithm (AFB) is a distributed optimization search algorithm that keeps one consistent partial assignment at all times. The algorithm is described in detail and its correctness proven. Experimental evaluation shows that AFB outperforms synchronous branch and bound by many orders of magnitude, and produces a phase transition as the tightness of the problem increases. This is an analogous effect to the phase transition that has been observed when local consistency maintenance is applied to MaxCSPs. The AFB algorithm is further enhanced by the addition of a backjumping mechanism, resulting in the AFB-BJ algorithm. Distributed backjumping is based on accumulated information on bounds of all values and on processing concurrently a queue of candidate goals for the next move back. The AFB-BJ algorithm is compared experimentally to other DisCOP algorithms (ADOPT, DPOP, OptAPO) and is shown to be a very efficient algorithm for DisCOPs.

We present an efficient algorithm for the inference of stochastic block models in large networks. The algorithm can be used as an optimized Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, with a fast mixing time and a much reduced susceptibility to getting trapped in metastable states, or as a greedy agglomerative heuristic, with an almost linear $O(N\ln^2N)$ complexity, where $N$ is the number of nodes in the network, independent on the number of blocks being inferred. We show that the heuristic is capable of delivering results which are indistinguishable from the more exact and numerically expensive MCMC method in many artificial and empirical networks, despite being much faster. The method is entirely unbiased towards any specific mixing pattern, and in particular it does not favor assortative community structures.

Recently, a number of mostly $\ell_1$-norm regularized least squares type deterministic algorithms have been proposed to address the problem of \emph{sparse} adaptive signal estimation and system identification. From a Bayesian perspective, this task is equivalent to maximum a posteriori probability estimation under a sparsity promoting heavy-tailed prior for the parameters of interest. Following a different approach, this paper develops a unifying framework of sparse \emph{variational Bayes} algorithms that employ heavy-tailed priors in conjugate hierarchical form to facilitate posterior inference. The resulting fully automated variational schemes are first presented in a batch iterative form. Then it is shown that by properly exploiting the structure of the batch estimation task, new sparse adaptive variational Bayes algorithms can be derived, which have the ability to impose and track sparsity during real-time processing in a time-varying environment. The most important feature of the proposed algorithms is that they completely eliminate the need for computationally costly parameter fine-tuning, a necessary ingredient of sparse adaptive deterministic algorithms. Extensive simulation results are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the new sparse variational Bayes algorithms against state-of-the-art deterministic techniques for adaptive channel estimation. The results show that the proposed algorithms are numerically robust and exhibit in general superior estimation performance compared to their deterministic counterparts.

A set of probabilistic predictions is well calibrated if the events that are predicted to occur with probability p do in fact occur about p fraction of the time. Well calibrated predictions are particularly important when machine learning models are used in decision analysis. This paper presents two new non-parametric methods for calibrating outputs of binary classification models: a method based on the Bayes optimal selection and a method based on the Bayesian model averaging. The advantage of these methods is that they are independent of the algorithm used to learn a predictive model, and they can be applied in a post-processing step, after the model is learned. This makes them applicable to a wide variety of machine learning models and methods. These calibration methods, as well as other methods, are tested on a variety of datasets in terms of both discrimination and calibration performance. The results show the methods either outperform or are comparable in performance to the state-of-the-art calibration methods.

Scientists often express their understanding of the world through a computationally demanding simulation program. Analyzing the posterior distribution of the parameters given observations (the inverse problem) can be extremely challenging. The Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) framework is the standard statistical tool to handle these likelihood free problems, but they require a very large number of simulations. In this work we develop two new ABC sampling algorithms that significantly reduce the number of simulations necessary for posterior inference. Both algorithms use confidence estimates for the accept probability in the Metropolis Hastings step to adaptively choose the number of necessary simulations. Our GPS-ABC algorithm stores the information obtained from every simulation in a Gaussian process which acts as a surrogate function for the simulated statistics. Experiments on a challenging realistic biological problem illustrate the potential of these algorithms.

We assume data sampled from a mixture of d-dimensional linear subspaces with spherically symmetric distributions within each subspace and an additional outlier component with spherically symmetric distribution within the ambient space (for simplicity we may assume that all distributions are uniform on their corresponding unit spheres). We also assume mixture weights for the different components. We say that one of the underlying subspaces of the model is most significant if its mixture weight is higher than the sum of the mixture weights of all other subspaces. We study the recovery of the most significant subspace by minimizing the lp-averaged distances of data points from d-dimensional subspaces, where p>0. Unlike other lp minimization problems, this minimization is non-convex for all p>0 and thus requires different methods for its analysis. We show that if 01 and there is more than one underlying subspace, then with overwhelming probability the most significant subspace cannot be recovered or nearly recovered. This last result does not require spherically symmetric outliers.

Graphical modelling has a long history in statistics as a tool for the analysis of multivariate data, starting from Wright's path analysis and Gibbs' applications to statistical physics at the beginning of the last century. In its modern form, it was pioneered by Lauritzen and Wermuth and Pearl in the 1980s, and has since found applications in fields as diverse as bioinformatics, customer satisfaction surveys and weather forecasts. Genetics and systems biology are unique among these fields in the dimension of the data sets they study, which often contain several hundreds of variables and only a few tens or hundreds of observations. This raises problems in both computational complexity and the statistical significance of the resulting networks, collectively known as the "curse of dimensionality". Furthermore, the data themselves are difficult to model correctly due to the limited understanding of the underlying mechanisms. In the following, we will illustrate how such challenges affect practical graphical modelling and some possible solutions.