Common wisdom has it that small distinctions in the probabilities quantifying a Bayesian network do not matter much for the resultsof probabilistic queries. However, one can easily develop realistic scenarios under which small variations in network probabilities can lead to significant changes in computed queries. A pending theoretical question is then to analytically characterize parameter changes that do or do not matter. In this paper, we study the sensitivity of probabilistic queries to changes in network parameters and prove some tight bounds on the impact that such parameters can have on queries. Our analytical results pinpoint some interesting situations under which parameter changes do or do not matter. These results are important for knowledge engineers as they help them identify influential network parameters. They are also important for approximate inference algorithms that preprocessnetwork CPTs to eliminate small distinctions in probabilities.

This paper aims at achieving a simultaneously sparse and low-rank estimator from the semidefinite population covariance matrices. We first benefit from a convex optimization which develops $l_1$-norm penalty to encourage the sparsity and nuclear norm to favor the low-rank property. For the proposed estimator, we then prove that with large probability, the Frobenious norm of the estimation rate can be of order $O(\sqrt{s(\log{r})/n})$ under a mild case, where $s$ and $r$ denote the number of sparse entries and the rank of the population covariance respectively, $n$ notes the sample capacity. Finally an efficient alternating direction method of multipliers with global convergence is proposed to tackle this problem, and meantime merits of the approach are also illustrated by practicing numerical simulations.

Active Learning (AL) methods seek to improve classifier performance when labels are expensive or scarce. We consider two central questions: Where does AL work? How much does it help? To address these questions, a comprehensive experimental simulation study of Active Learning is presented. We consider a variety of tasks, classifiers and other AL factors, to present a broad exploration of AL performance in various settings. A precise way to quantify performance is needed in order to know when AL works. Thus we also present a detailed methodology for tackling the complexities of assessing AL performance in the context of this experimental study.

We introduce the functional mean-shift algorithm, an iterative algorithm for estimating the local modes of a surrogate density from functional data. We show that the algorithm can be used for cluster analysis of functional data. We propose a test based on the bootstrap for the significance of the estimated local modes of the surrogate density. We present two applications of our methodology. In the first application, we demonstrate how the functional mean-shift algorithm can be used to perform spike sorting, i.e. cluster neural activity curves. In the second application, we use the functional mean-shift algorithm to distinguish between original and fake signatures.

Modern datasets are becoming heterogeneous. To this end, we present in this paper Mixed-Variate Restricted Boltzmann Machines for simultaneously modelling variables of multiple types and modalities, including binary and continuous responses, categorical options, multicategorical choices, ordinal assessment and category-ranked preferences. Dependency among variables is modeled using latent binary variables, each of which can be interpreted as a particular hidden aspect of the data. The proposed model, similar to the standard RBMs, allows fast evaluation of the posterior for the latent variables. Hence, it is naturally suitable for many common tasks including, but not limited to, (a) as a pre-processing step to convert complex input data into a more convenient vectorial representation through the latent posteriors, thereby offering a dimensionality reduction capacity, (b) as a classifier supporting binary, multiclass, multilabel, and label-ranking outputs, or a regression tool for continuous outputs and (c) as a data completion tool for multimodal and heterogeneous data. We evaluate the proposed model on a large-scale dataset using the world opinion survey results on three tasks: feature extraction and visualization, data completion and prediction.

We explore a framework called boosted Markov networks to combine the learning capacity of boosting and the rich modeling semantics of Markov networks and applying the framework for video-based activity recognition. Importantly, we extend the framework to incorporate hidden variables. We show how the framework can be applied for both model learning and feature selection. We demonstrate that boosted Markov networks with hidden variables perform comparably with the standard maximum likelihood estimation. However, our framework is able to learn sparse models, and therefore can provide computational savings when the learned models are used for classification.

Deep architecture such as hierarchical semi-Markov models is an important class of models for nested sequential data. Current exact inference schemes either cost cubic time in sequence length, or exponential time in model depth. These costs are prohibitive for large-scale problems with arbitrary length and depth. In this contribution, we propose a new approximation technique that may have the potential to achieve sub-cubic time complexity in length and linear time depth, at the cost of some loss of quality. The idea is based on two well-known methods: Gibbs sampling and Rao-Blackwellisation. We provide some simulation-based evaluation of the quality of the RGBS with respect to run time and sequence length.

A novel framework for consensus clustering is presented which has the ability to determine both the number of clusters and a final solution using multiple algorithms. A consensus similarity matrix is formed from an ensemble using multiple algorithms and several values for k. A variety of dimension reduction techniques and clustering algorithms are considered for analysis. For noisy or high-dimensional data, an iterative technique is presented to refine this consensus matrix in way that encourages algorithms to agree upon a common solution. We utilize the theory of nearly uncoupled Markov chains to determine the number, k , of clusters in a dataset by considering a random walk on the graph defined by the consensus matrix. The eigenvalues of the associated transition probability matrix are used to determine the number of clusters. This method succeeds at determining the number of clusters in many datasets where previous methods fail. On every considered dataset, our consensus method provides a final result with accuracy well above the average of the individual algorithms.

We study confidence intervals based on hard-thresholding, soft-thresholding, and adaptive soft-thresholding in a linear regression model where the number of regressors $k$ may depend on and diverge with sample size $n$. In addition to the case of known error variance, we define and study versions of the estimators when the error variance is unknown. In the known variance case, we provide an exact analysis of the coverage properties of such intervals in finite samples. We show that these intervals are always larger than the standard interval based on the least-squares estimator. Asymptotically, the intervals based on the thresholding estimators are larger even by an order of magnitude when the estimators are tuned to perform consistent variable selection. For the unknown-variance case, we provide non-trivial lower bounds for the coverage probabilities in finite samples and conduct an asymptotic analysis where the results from the known-variance case can be shown to carry over asymptotically if the number of degrees of freedom $n-k$ tends to infinity fast enough in relation to the thresholding parameter.

Learning and understanding the typical patterns in the daily activities and routines of people from low-level sensory data is an important problem in many application domains such as building smart environments, or providing intelligent assistance. Traditional approaches to this problem typically rely on supervised learning and generative models such as the hidden Markov models and its extensions. While activity data can be readily acquired from pervasive sensors, e.g. in smart environments, providing manual labels to support supervised training is often extremely expensive. In this paper, we propose a new approach based on semi-supervised training of partially hidden discriminative models such as the conditional random field (CRF) and the maximum entropy Markov model (MEMM). We show that these models allow us to incorporate both labeled and unlabeled data for learning, and at the same time, provide us with the flexibility and accuracy of the discriminative framework. Our experimental results in the video surveillance domain illustrate that these models can perform better than their generative counterpart, the partially hidden Markov model, even when a substantial amount of labels are unavailable.