We combine the ideas behind trees and Gaussian graphical models to form a new nonparametric family of graphical models. Our approach is to attach nonparanormal blossoms", with arbitrary graphs, to a collection of nonparametric trees. The tree edges are chosen to connect variables that most violate joint Gaussianity. The non-tree edges are partitioned into disjoint groups, and assigned to tree nodes using a nonparametric partial correlation statistic. A nonparanormal blossom is then "grown" for each group using established methods based on the graphical lasso. The result is a factorization with respect to the union of the tree branches and blossoms, defining a high-dimensional joint density that can be efficiently estimated and evaluated on test points. Theoretical properties and experiments with simulated and real data demonstrate the effectiveness of blossom trees."

We consider the problem of recovering a symmetric, positive semidefinite (SPSD) matrix from a subset of its entries, possibly corrupted by noise. In contrast to previous matrix recovery work, we drop the assumption of a random sampling of entries in favor of a deterministic sampling of principal submatrices of the matrix. We develop a set of sufficient conditions for the recovery of a SPSD matrix from a set of its principal submatrices, present necessity results based on this set of conditions and develop an algorithm that can exactly recover a matrix when these conditions are met. The proposed algorithm is naturally generalized to the problem of noisy matrix recovery, and we provide a worst-case bound on reconstruction error for this scenario. Finally, we demonstrate the algorithm's utility on noiseless and noisy simulated datasets.

Fluorescent calcium imaging provides a potentially powerful tool for inferring connectivity in neural circuits with up to thousands of neurons. However, a key challenge in using calcium imaging for connectivity detection is that current systems often have a temporal response and frame rate that can be orders of magnitude slower than the underlying neural spiking process. Bayesian inference based on expectation-maximization (EM) have been proposed to overcome these limitations, but they are often computationally demanding since the E-step in the EM procedure typically involves state estimation in a high-dimensional nonlinear dynamical system. In this work, we propose a computationally fast method for the state estimation based on a hybrid of loopy belief propagation and approximate message passing (AMP). The key insight is that a neural system as viewed through calcium imaging can be factorized into simple scalar dynamical systems for each neuron with linear interconnections between the neurons. Using the structure, the updates in the proposed hybrid AMP methodology can be computed by a set of one-dimensional state estimation procedures and linear transforms with the connectivity matrix. This yields a computationally scalable method for inferring connectivity of large neural circuits. Simulations of the method on realistic neural networks demonstrate good accuracy with computation times that are potentially significantly faster than current approaches based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods.

We study an online learning setting where the player is temporarily deprived of feedback each time it switches to a different action. Such model of \emph{adaptive feedback} naturally occurs in scenarios where the environment reacts to the player's actions and requires some time to recover and stabilize after the algorithm switches actions. This motivates a variant of the multi-armed bandit problem, which we call the \emph{blinded multi-armed bandit}, in which no feedback is given to the algorithm whenever it switches arms. We develop efficient online learning algorithms for this problem and prove that they guarantee the same asymptotic regret as the optimal algorithms for the standard multi-armed bandit problem. This result stands in stark contrast to another recent result, which states that adding a switching cost to the standard multi-armed bandit makes it substantially harder to learn, and provides a direct comparison of how feedback and loss contribute to the difficulty of an online learning problem. We also extend our results to the general prediction framework of bandit linear optimization, again attaining near-optimal regret bounds.

Markov Logic Networks (MLNs) are weighted first-order logic templates for generating large (ground) Markov networks. Lifted inference algorithms for them bring the power of logical inference to probabilistic inference. These algorithms operate as much as possible at the compact first-order level, grounding or propositionalizing the MLN only as necessary. As a result, lifted inference algorithms can be much more scalable than propositional algorithms that operate directly on the much larger ground network. Unfortunately, existing lifted inference algorithms suffer from two interrelated problems, which severely affects their scalability in practice. First, for most real-world MLNs having complex structure, they are unable to exploit symmetries and end up grounding most atoms (the grounding problem). Second, they suffer from the evidence problem, which arises because evidence breaks symmetries, severely diminishing the power of lifted inference. In this paper, we address both problems by presenting a scalable, lifted importance sampling-based approach that never grounds the full MLN. Specifically, we show how to scale up the two main steps in importance sampling: sampling from the proposal distribution and weight computation. Scalable sampling is achieved by using an informed, easy-to-sample proposal distribution derived from a compressed MLN-representation. Fast weight computation is achieved by only visiting a small subset of the sampled groundings of each formula instead of all of its possible groundings. We show that our new algorithm yields an asymptotically unbiased estimate. Our experiments on several MLNs clearly demonstrate the promise of our approach.

Currently, deep neural networks are the state of the art on problems such as speech recognition and computer vision. In this paper we empirically demonstrate that shallow feed-forward nets can learn the complex functions previously learned by deep nets and achieve accuracies previously only achievable with deep models. Moreover, in some cases the shallow nets can learn these deep functions using the same number of parameters as the original deep models. On the TIMIT phoneme recognition and CIFAR-10 image recognition tasks, shallow nets can be trained that perform similarly to complex, well-engineered, deeper convolutional models.

We consider the problem of online planning in a Markov decision process with discounted rewards for any given initial state. We consider the PAC sample complexity problem of computing, with probability $1-\delta$, an $\epsilon$-optimal action using the smallest possible number of calls to the generative model (which provides reward and next-state samples). We design an algorithm, called StOP (for Stochastic-Optimistic Planning), based on the optimism in the face of uncertainty" principle. StOP can be used in the general setting, requires only a generative model, and enjoys a complexity bound that only depends on the local structure of the MDP."

It was recently proved using graph covers (Ruozzi, 2012) that the Bethe partition function is upper bounded by the true partition function for a binary pairwise model that is attractive. Here we provide a new, arguably simpler proof from first principles. We make use of the idea of clamping a variable to a particular value. For an attractive model, we show that summing over the Bethe partition functions for each sub-model obtained after clamping any variable can only raise (and hence improve) the approximation. In fact, we derive a stronger result that may have other useful implications. Repeatedly clamping until we obtain a model with no cycles, where the Bethe approximation is exact, yields the result. We also provide a related lower bound on a broad class of approximate partition functions of general pairwise multi-label models that depends only on the topology. We demonstrate that clamping a few wisely chosen variables can be of practical value by dramatically reducing approximation error.

We study the problem of low-rank tensor factorization in the presence of missing data. We ask the following question: how many sampled entries do we need, to efficiently and exactly reconstruct a tensor with a low-rank orthogonal decomposition? We propose a novel alternating minimization based method which iteratively refines estimates of the singular vectors. We show that under certain standard assumptions, our method can recover a three-mode $n\times n\times n$ dimensional rank-$r$ tensor exactly from $O(n^{3/2} r^5 \log^4 n)$ randomly sampled entries. In the process of proving this result, we solve two challenging sub-problems for tensors with missing data. First, in analyzing the initialization step, we prove a generalization of a celebrated result by Szemer\'edie et al. on the spectrum of random graphs. Next, we prove global convergence of alternating minimization with a good initialization. Simulations suggest that the dependence of the sample size on dimensionality $n$ is indeed tight.

In this paper, we take a statistical decision-theoretic viewpoint on social choice, putting a focus on the decision to be made on behalf of a system of agents. In our framework, we are given a statistical ranking model, a decision space, and a loss function defined on (parameter, decision) pairs, and formulate social choice mechanisms as decision rules that minimize expected loss. This suggests a general framework for the design and analysis of new social choice mechanisms. We compare Bayesian estimators, which minimize Bayesian expected loss, for the Mallows model and the Condorcet model respectively, and the Kemeny rule. We consider various normative properties, in addition to computational complexity and asymptotic behavior. In particular, we show that the Bayesian estimator for the Condorcet model satisfies some desired properties such as anonymity, neutrality, and monotonicity, can be computed in polynomial time, and is asymptotically different from the other two rules when the data are generated from the Condorcet model for some ground truth parameter.