Generalized Additive Models (GAM) are a widely popular class of regression models to forecast electricity demand, due to their high accuracy, flexibility and interpretability. However, the residuals of the fitted GAM are typically heteroscedastic and leptokurtic caused by the nature of energy data. In this paper we propose a novel approach to estimate the time-varying conditional variance of the GAM residuals, which we call the GAM2 algorithm. It allows utility companies and network operators to assess the uncertainty of future electricity demand and incorporate it into their planning processes. The basic idea of our algorithm is to apply another GAM to the squared residuals to explain the dependence of uncertainty on exogenous variables. Empirical evidence shows that the residuals rescaled by the estimated conditional variance are approximately normal. We combine our modeling approach with online learning algorithms that adjust for dynamic changes in the distributions of demand. We illustrate our method by a case study on data from RTE, the operator of the French transmission grid.

The task of computing approximate Nash equilibria in large zero-sum extensive-form games has received a tremendous amount of attention due mainly to the Annual Computer Poker Competition. Immediately after its inception, two competing and seemingly different approaches emerged---one an application of no-regret online learning, the other a sophisticated gradient method applied to a convex-concave saddle-point formulation. Since then, both approaches have grown in relative isolation with advancements on one side not effecting the other. In this paper, we rectify this by dissecting and, in a sense, unify the two views.

In the context of soccer robotics, ball dribbling is a complex behavior where a robot player attempts to maneuver the ball in a very controlled way, while moving towards a desired target. To learn when and how to modify the robot’s velocity vector is a complex problem, hardly solvable in an effective way with methods based on identification of the system dynamics and/or kinematics and mathematical models. We propose a decentralized reinforcement learning strategy, where each component of the omnidirectional biped walk (𝑣𝑥,𝑣𝑦,𝑣𝜃) is learned in parallel with single-agents working in a multiagent task. Moreover, we propose an approach to accelerate the decentralized learning based on knowledge transfer from simple linear controllers. Obtained results are successful; with less human effort, and less required designer knowledge, the decentralized reinforcement learning scheme shows better performances than the current dribbling engine used by UChile Robotics Team in the SPL robot soccer competitions. The proposed decentralized rein- forcement learning scheme achieves asymptotic performance after 1500 episodes and can be accelerated up to 70% by using our approach to share actions.

We introduce a novel feature set for reinforcement learning in visual domains (e.g. video games) designed to capture pairwise, position-invariant, spatial relationships between objects on the screen. The feature set is simple to implement and computationally practical, but nevertheless allows for substantial improvement over existing baselines in a wide variety of Atari 2600 games. In the most dramatic results the features allow multiple orders of magnitude improvement in performance.

The Generalized Mutual Assignment Problem (GMAP) is a maximization problem in distributed environments, where multiple agents select goods under resource constraints. Distributed Lagrangian Relaxation Protocols (DisLRP) are peer-to-peer communication protocols for solving GMAP instances. In DisLRPs, agents seek a good quality upper bound on the optimal value by solving the Lagrangian dual problem, which is a convex minimization problem. Existing DisLRPs exploit a subgradient method to explore a better upper bound by updating the Lagrange multipliers (prices) of goods. While the computational complexity of the subgradient method is very low, it cannot detect tha fact that an upper bound converges to the minimum. Moreover, solution oscillation sometimes occurs, which is critical for its performance. In this paper, we present a new DisLRP with a Bundle Method and refer to it as Bundle DisLRP (BDisLRP). The bundle method, which is also called the stabilized cutting planes method, has recently attracted much attention as a way to solve Lagrangian dual problems in centralized environments. We show that this method can also work in distributed environments. We experimentally compared BDisLRP with Adaptive DisLRP (ADisLRP), which is a previous protocol that exploits the subgradient method, to demonstrate that BDisLRP converged faster with better quality upper bounds than ADisLRP.

Recently it has been shown that deep neural networks can learn to play Atari games by directly observing raw pixels of the playing area. We show how apprenticeship learning can be applied in this setting so that an agent can learn to perform a task (i.e. play a game) by observing the expert, without any explicitly provided knowledge of the game’s internal state or objectives.

The growing use of social media has made it a critical component of disaster response and recovery efforts. Both in terms of preparedness and response, public health officials and first responders have turned to automated tools to assist with organizing and visualizing large streams of social media. In turn, this has spurred new research into algorithms for information extraction, event detection and organization, and information visualization. One challenge of these efforts has been the lack of a common corpus for disaster response on which researchers can compare and contrast their work. This paper describes the Hurricane Sandy Twitter Corpus: 6.5 million geotagged Twitter posts from the geographic area and time period of the 2012 Hurricane Sandy.

Quantifying biodiversity is an important task related to ecological research. One way to measure biodiversity is through species richness, which measures the number of unique species found in an area. Recently, citizen science biodiversity datasets such as eBird allow the calculation of species richness over an unprecedented spatial and temporal extent. However, several confounding factors associated with the unstructured observation process, such as observer effort, affect the number of species reported by citizen scientists. In this work, we develop an algorithm for discovering hotspots and coldspots of species richness using eBird data while accounting for these confounding factors.

Residential and commercial buildings are responsible for about 40% of primary energy consumption in the United States, hence improving their energy efficiency could have important sustainability benefits. The design of a building has tremendous effect on its energy profile, and recently there has been an increased interest in developing optimization methods that support the design of high performance buildings. Previous approaches are either based on simulation optimization or on training an accurate predictive model that is queried during the optimization. We propose a method that more tightly integrates the machine learning and optimization components, by employing active learning during optimization. In particular, we use a Gaussian Process (GP) model for the prediction and active learning and multi-objective genetic algorithm NSGA-II for the optimization. We develop a comprehensive and publicly available benchmark for building design optimization. We evaluate 5 machine learning approaches on our dataset, and show that the GP model is competitive, in addition to being well-suited for the active learning setting. We compare our optimization approach against the 2-stage approach and simulation optimization. Our results show that our approach produces solutions at the Pareto frontier compared to the other two approaches, while using only a fraction of the simulations and time.

Teaching robots about objects in their environment requires a multimodal correlation of images and linguistic descriptions to build complete feature and object models.  These models can be created manually by collecting images and related keywords and presenting the pairings to robots, but doing so is tedious and unnatural.  This work abstracts the problem of training robots to learn about the world around them by introducing I Spy , an interactive dialogue- and vision-based game in which players place objects in front of a humanoid robot and challenge it to guess which object they have in mind.  The robot gradually learns about the objects and the features which describe them through repeated games, by updating its knowledge with newly captured training images.  This paper details I Spy's learning and gaming processes, describes the approaches taken to extract information from multiple modalities both before and during gameplay, and finally discusses the results of a study designed to evaluate the game's model accuracy over time, its overall performance, and its appeal to human players.