Technology
Modeling Ecological Integrity with Bayesian Belief Networks
Barrios, Juan M. (National Commission for Knowledge and Use of Biodiversity) | Sierra-Alcocer, Raúl (National Commission for Knowledge and Use of Biodiversity) | González-Salazar, Constantino (National Commission for Knowledge and Use of Biodiversity) | Mora, Franz E. (National Commission for Knowledge and Use of Biodiversity) | Munguía, Mariana (National Commission for Knowledge and Use of Biodiversity) | Pérez-Maqueo, Octavio M. (National Commission for Knowledge and Use of Biodiversity) | Trejo, Isabel (National Commission for Knowledge and Use of Biodiversity)
Although the concept of ecological integrity is referred in many country legislations there is no consensus on how to formalize and implement it. One possible definition is as the capacity of an ecosystem to support and maintain a balanced, integrated, and adaptive community of organisms having a species composition, diversity, and functional organization comparable to that of a natural habitat of the region. Our objective is to model this interpretation of ecological integrity from a set of ecological measures that can be estimated from ecological inventory data.
Mixed-Integer Linear Programming for Planning with Temporal Logic Tasks [Position Paper]
Raman, Vasumathi (California Institute of Technology) | Wolff, Eric M. (nuTonomy LLC)
We are concerned with controlling dynamical systems, such as self-driving cars and smart buildings, in a manner that guarantees that they satisfy complex task specifications. Mixed integer linear programming has recently proven to be a powerful tool for such problems, enabling the computation of optimal plans that satisfy complex temporal constraints for high-dimensional, dynamical systems. These optimization-based approaches find solutions quickly for challenging (and previously unsolvable) planning problems. Framing temporal logic planning as constrained optimization also presents exciting new areas of research.
Game Theoretic Considerations for Optimizing Efficiency of Taxi Systems
Gan, Jiarui (Institute of Computing Technology Chinese Academy of Science) | An, Bo (Nanyang Technological University)
Taxi service is an indispensable part of public transport in modern cities. The taxi system is operated by a large number of self-controlled drivers lacking of centralized scheduling and control, which makes it inefficient, difficult to analyze and optimize. It is thus important to take into account taxi drivers' strategic behavior in order to optimize taxi systems' efficiency. This paper reviews existing taxi system researches for modeling taxi system dynamics, introduces the taxi system efficiency optimization problem, and presents a game theoretic approach for optimizing the efficiency of taxi systems. Challenges and open issues in the taxi system efficiency optimization problem are also discussed.
Hierarchical Abstraction, Distributed Equilibrium Computation, and Post-Processing, with Application to a Champion No-Limit Texas Hold'em Agent
Brown, Noam (Carnegie Mellon University) | Ganzfried, Sam (Carnegie Mellon University) | Sandholm, Tuomas (Carnegie Mellon University)
The leading approach for solving large imperfect-information games is automated abstraction followed by running an equilibrium-finding algorithm. We introduce a distributed version of the most commonly used equilibrium-finding algorithm, counterfactual regret minimization (CFR), which enables CFR to scale to dramatically larger abstractions and numbers of cores. The new algorithm begets constraints on the abstraction so as to make the pieces running on different computers disjoint. We introduce an algorithm for generating such abstractions while capitalizing on state-of-the-art abstraction ideas such as imperfect recall and earth-mover's distance. Our techniques enabled an equilibrium computation of unprecedented size on a supercomputer with a high inter-blade memory latency. Prior approaches run slowly on this architecture. Our approach also leads to a significant improvement over using the prior best approach on a large shared-memory server with low memory latency. Finally, we introduce a family of post-processing techniques that outperform prior ones. We applied these techniques to generate an agent for two-player no-limit Texas Hold'em that won the 2014 Annual Computer Poker Competition, beating each opponent with statistical significance.
RAPID: A Belief Convergence Strategy for Collaborating with Inconsistent Agents
Sarratt, Trevor (University of California Santa Cruz) | Jhala, Arnav (University of California Santa Cruz)
Maintaining an accurate set of beliefs in a partially observable scenario, particularly with respect to other agents operating in the same space, is a vital aspect of multiagent planning. We analyze how the beliefs of an agent can be updated for fast adaptivity to changes in the behavior of an unknown teammate. The main contribution of this paper is the empirical evaluation of an agent cooperating with a teammate whose goals change periodically. We test our approach in a collaborative multiagent domain where identification of goals is necessary for successful completion. The belief revision technique we propose outperforms the traditional approach in a majority of test cases. Additionally, our results suggest the ability to approximate a higher level model by utilizing a belief distribution over a set of lower level behaviors, particularly when the belief update strategy identifies changes in the behavior in a responsive manner.
Privacy-Utility Trade-Off for Time-Series with Application to Smart-Meter Data
Erdogdu, Murat A. (Stanford University) | Fawaz, Nadia (Technicolor) | Montanari, Andrea (Stanford University)
We consider the online setting where a user would like to continuously release a time-series of data that is correlated with his private data, to a service provider in the hope of deriving some utility. Due to correlations, the continual observation of the released time-series puts the user at risk of inference of his private data by an adversary. To protect the user from inference attacks on his private data, the time-series is randomized prior to its release according to a probabilistic privacy mapping. The privacy mapping should be designed in a way that balances privacy and utility requirements over time.Our contributions are threefold. First, we formalize the framework for the design of utility-aware privacy mappings for time-series data, under both online and batch models. We provide a sequential scheme that allows to design online privacy mappings at scale, that account for privacy risk from the history of released data and future releases to come. Second, we prove the equivalence of the optimal mappings under the batch and the online models, in the case where the time-series samples are independent across time. We further show that there exists a gap between optimal batch and online privacy mappings when certain conditions are not satisfied.Finally, we evaluate the performance of the framework over synthetic and real-world time-series data. In particular, we show that smart-meter data can be randomized for privacy purposes to prevent disaggregation of per-device energy consumption, while preserving the utility.
DoSTra: Discovering Common Behaviors of Objects Using the Duration of Staying on Each Location of Trajectories
Guo, Limin (Institute of Software, Chinese Academy of Sciences) | Huang, Guangyan (Deakin University) | Gao, Xu (Institute of Software, Chinese Academy of Sciences) | He, Jing (Victoria University and Nanjing University of Finance and Economics) | Wu, Bin (Institute of Software, Chinese Academy of Sciences) | Guo, Haoming (Institute of Software, Chinese Academy of Sciences)
Since semantic trajectories can discover more semantic meanings of a user’s interests without geographic restrictions, research on semantic trajectories has attracted a lot of attentions in recent years. Most existing work discover the similar behavior of moving objects through analysis of their semantic trajectory pattern, that is, sequences of locations. However, this kind of trajectories without considering the duration of staying on a location limits wild applications. For example, Tom and Anne have a common pattern of Home Restaurant Company Restaurant , but they are not similar, since Tom works at Restaurant , sends snack to someone at Company and return to Restaurant while Anne has breakfast at Restaurant , works at Company and has lunch at Restaurant . If we consider duration of staying on each location we can easily to differentiate their behaviors. In this paper, we propose a novel approach for discovering common behaviors by considering the duration of staying on each location of trajectories (DoSTra). Our approach can be used to detect the group that has similar lifestyle, habit or behavior patterns and predict the future locations of moving objects. We evaluate the experiment based on synthetic dataset, which demonstrates the high effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed method.
Formulating LUTI Calibration as an Optimisation Problem: Estimation of Tranus Shadow Price and Substitution Parameters
Capelle, Thomas (Inria and Université Grenoble Alpes) | Sturm, Peter (Inria and Université Grenoble Alpes) | Vidard, Arthur (Inria and Université Grenoble Alpes) | Morton, Brian (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill)
Cities and their employment catchment areas are focus points of economic activity, transportation, and social interactions. The need for land use and transport inte- grated modelling (LUTI modelling) as a decision aid tool in urban planning, has become apparent. Instanti- ating such models on cities, requires a substantial data collection, model structuring and parameter estimation effort; for conciseness, the latter is referred to here as calibration. This work is a partial effort towards the integrated calibration of LUTI models. It considers one of the most widely used LUTI models and softwares, Tranus. The usual calibration approach for Tranus is briefly reviewed. It is then reformulated as an optimisa- tion problem, in order to make it amenable to the sys- tematic incorporation of constraints on parameters and additional data and to form a clear basis for future fully integrated calibration. The problem at hand concerns a dynamic system; an approach is shown how to “elimi- nate” parts of the dynamics in order to ease the param- eter optimisation. We also discuss how to validate cali- bration results and propose to use synthetic data gener- ated from real world problems in order to assess conver- gence properties and accuracy of calibration methods.
Effectiveness of Probability Perception Modeling and Defender Strategy Generation Algorithms in Repeated Stackelberg Games: An Initial Report
Kar, Debarun (University of Southern California) | Fang, Fei (University of Southern California) | Fave, Francesco Maria Delle (University of Southern California) | Sintov, Nicole (University of Southern California) | Tambe, Milind (University of Southern California) | Wissen, Arlette van (VU University Amsterdam)
While human behavior models based on repeated Stackelberg games have been proposed for domains such as "wildlife crime" where there is repeated interaction between the defender and the adversary, there has been no empirical study with human subjects to show the effectiveness of such models. This paper presents an initial study based on extensive human subject experiments with participants on Amazon Mechanical Turk (AMT). Our findings include: (i) attackers may view the defender’s coverage probability in a non-linear fashion; specifically it follows an S-shaped curve, and (ii) there are significant losses in defender utility when strategies generated by existing models are deployed in repeated Stackelberg game settings against human subjects.
Solving Hanabi: Estimating Hands by Opponent's Actions in Cooperative Game with Incomplete Information
Osawa, Hirotaka (University of Tsukuba)
A unique behavior of humans is modifying one’s unobservable behavior based on the reaction of others for cooperation. We used a card game called Hanabi as an evaluation task of imitating human reflective intelligence with artificial intelligence. Hanabi is a cooperative card game with incomplete information. A player cooperates with an opponent in building several card sets constructed with the same color and ordered numbers. However, like a blind man's bluff, each player sees the cards of all other players except his/her own. Also, communication between players is restricted to information about the same numbers and colors, and the player is required to read his/his opponent's intention with the opponent's hand, estimate his/her cards with incomplete information, and play one of them for building a set. We compared human play with several simulated strategies. The results indicate that the strategy with feedbacks from simulated opponent's viewpoints achieves more score than other strategies.