In this paper we provide theoretical support for the so-called "Sigmoidal Gaussian Cox Process" approach to learning the intensity of an inhomogeneous Poisson process on a $d$-dimensional domain. This method was proposed by Adams, Murray and MacKay (ICML, 2009), who developed a tractable computational approach and showed in simulation and real data experiments that it can work quite satisfactorily. The results presented in the present paper provide theoretical underpinning of the method. In particular, we show how to tune the priors on the hyper parameters of the model in order for the procedure to automatically adapt to the degree of smoothness of the unknown intensity and to achieve optimal convergence rates.

Despite our extensive knowledge of biophysical properties of neurons, there is no commonly accepted algorithmic theory of neuronal function. Here we explore the hypothesis that single-layer neuronal networks perform online symmetric nonnegative matrix factorization (SNMF) of the similarity matrix of the streamed data. By starting with the SNMF cost function we derive an online algorithm, which can be implemented by a biologically plausible network with local learning rules. We demonstrate that such network performs soft clustering of the data as well as sparse feature discovery. The derived algorithm replicates many known aspects of sensory anatomy and biophysical properties of neurons including unipolar nature of neuronal activity and synaptic weights, local synaptic plasticity rules and the dependence of learning rate on cumulative neuronal activity. Thus, we make a step towards an algorithmic theory of neuronal function, which should facilitate large-scale neural circuit simulations and biologically inspired artificial intelligence.

The calibration of a measurement device is crucial for every scientific experiment, where a signal has to be inferred from data. We present CURE, the calibration uncertainty renormalized estimator, to reconstruct a signal and simultaneously the instrument's calibration from the same data without knowing the exact calibration, but its covariance structure. The idea of CURE, developed in the framework of information field theory, is starting with an assumed calibration to successively include more and more portions of calibration uncertainty into the signal inference equations and to absorb the resulting corrections into renormalized signal (and calibration) solutions. Thereby, the signal inference and calibration problem turns into solving a single system of ordinary differential equations and can be identified with common resummation techniques used in field theories. We verify CURE by applying it to a simplistic toy example and compare it against existent self-calibration schemes, Wiener filter solutions, and Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling. We conclude that the method is able to keep up in accuracy with the best self-calibration methods and serves as a non-iterative alternative to it.

Saving energy is a major concern. Hence, it is fundamental to design and construct buildings that are energy-efficient. It is known that the early stage of architectural design has a significant impact on this matter. However, it is complex to create designs that are optimally energy efficient, and at the same time balance other essential criterias such as economics, space, and safety. One state-of-the art approach is to create parametric designs, and use a genetic algorithm to optimize across different objectives. We further improve this method, by aggregating the solutions of multiple agents. We evaluate diverse teams, composed by different agents; and uniform teams, composed by multiple copies of a single agent. We test our approach across three design cases of increasing complexity, and show that the diverse team provides a significantly larger percentage of optimal solutions than single agents.

One approach to conserving endangered species is to purchase and protect a set of land parcels in a way that maximizes the expected future population spread. Unfortunately, an ideal set of parcels may have a cost that is beyond the immediate budget constraints and must thus be purchased incrementally. This raises the challenge of deciding how to schedule the parcel purchases in a way that maximizes the flexibility of budget usage while keeping population spread loss in control. In this paper, we introduce a formulation of this scheduling problem that does not rely on knowing the future budgets of an organization. In particular, we consider scheduling purchases in a way that achieves a population spread no less than desired but delays purchases as long as possible. Such schedules offer conservation planners maximum flexibility and use available budgets in the most efficient way. We develop the problem formally as a stochastic optimization problem over a network cascade model describing a commonly used model of population spread. Our solution approach is based on reducing the stochastic problem to a novel variant of the directed Steiner tree problem, which we call the set-weighted directed Steiner graph problem. We show that this problem is computationally hard, motivating the development of a primal-dual algorithm for the problem that computes both a feasible solution and a bound on the quality of an optimal solution. We evaluate the approach on both real and synthetic conservation data with a standard population spread model. The algorithm is shown to produce near optimal results and is much more scalable than more generic off-the-shelf optimizers. Finally, we evaluate a variant of the algorithm to explore the trade-offs between budget savings and population growth.

To achieve high performance, autonomous systems, such as science explorers, should adapt to the environment to improve utility gained, as well as robustness. Flexibility during temporal plan execution has been explored extensively to improve robustness, where flexibility exists both in activity choices and schedules. These problems are framed as conditional constraint networks over temporal constraints. However, flexibility has been exploited in a limited form to improve utility. Prior work considers utility in choice or schedule, but not their coupling. To exploit fully flexibility, we introduce conditional simple temporal networks with preference (CSTNP), where preference is a function over both choice and schedule. Enumerating best solutions to a CSTNP is challenging due to the cost of scheduling a candidate STPP and the exponential number of candidates. Our contribution is an algorithm for enumerating solutions to CSTNPs efficiently, called A star with bounding conflicts (A*BC), and a novel variant of conflicts, called bounding conflicts, for learning heuristic functions. A*BC interleaves Generate, Test, and Bound. When A*BC bounds a candidate, by solving a STPP, it generates a bounding conflict, denoting neighboring candidates with similar bounds. A*BC's generator then uses these conflicts to steer away from sub-optimal candidates.

Although techniques for finding Nash equilibria in extensive form games have become more powerful in recent years, many games that model real world interactions remain too large to be solved directly. The current approach is to create a smaller abstracted game, allowing the computation of an optimal solution. The strategy can then be used in the original game. Considering public information to create the abstraction can be strategically important, yet very few of the previous abstraction algorithms specifically consider public information or use an expert approach. In this paper, we show that the public information can be crucial, and we present a new, automatic technique for abstracting the public state space. We also present an experimental evaluation in the domain of Texas Hold’em poker and show that it outperforms state-of-the-art abstraction algorithms.

The problem with this type of method is that it does not really take advantage of Land use and land cover classification (LUCC) maps from high resolution images. We believe that pixel based spectral remote sensor data are of great interest since they allow to information is not enough to characterize land use and track issues like deforestation/reforestation, water sources land cover classes. For this reason, our goal is to design a reduction, urban growth, or to calculate indicators like a methodology that models classes as areas of correlated pixels.

Causal structure discovery methods are investigated recently but none of them has taken possible time-varying structure into consideration. This paper uses a notion of causal time-varying dynamic Bayesian network (CTV-DBN) and define a causal boundary to govern cross-time information sharing. CTV-DBN is constructed by using asymmetric kernels to address sample scarcity and to adhere to causal principles; while maintaining good variance and bias trade-off. Upon satisfying causal Markov assumption, causal inference can be made based on manipulation rule. We explore trajectory data collected from taxis in Beijing which exhibit heterogeneous patterns, data sparseness and distribution skewness. Experiments show that by using casual structures and trajectory clustering, we can analyse the spatio-temporal behavior of the trajectory data.

In this paper we present a novel online transfer learning approach to determine the set of tests to perform, and the sequence in which they need to be performed, in order to develop an accurate diagnosis while minimizing the cost of performing the tests. Our learning approach can be incorporated as part of a clinical decision support system (CDSS) with which clinicians can interact. The approach builds on a contextual bandit framework and uses online transfer learning to overcome limitations with the availability of rich training data sets that capture different conditions, context, test results as well as outcomes. We provide confidence bounds for our recommended policies, which is essential in order to build the trust of clinicians. We evaluate the algorithm against different transfer learning approaches on real-world patient alarm datasets collected from Neurological Intensive Care Units (with reduced costs by 20%).