In an earlier work we have used the Triangular Fuzzy Numbers (TFNs)as an assessment tool of student skills.This approach led to an approximate linguistic characterization of the students' overall performance, but it was not proved to be sufficient in all cases for comparing the performance of two different student groups, since tywo TFNs are not always comparable. In the present paper we complete the above fuzzy assessment approach by presenting a defuzzification method of TFNS based on the Center of Gravity (COG) technique, which enables the required comparison. In addition we extend our results by using the Trapezoidal Fuzzy Numbers (TpFNs) too, which are a generalization of the TFNs, for student assessment and we present suitable examples illustrating our new results in practice.

We study the problem of recovering the subspace spanned by the first $k$ principal components of $d$-dimensional data under the streaming setting, with a memory bound of $O(kd)$. Two families of algorithms are known for this problem. The first family is based on the framework of stochastic gradient descent. Nevertheless, the convergence rate of the family can be seriously affected by the learning rate of the descent steps and deserves more serious study. The second family is based on the power method over blocks of data, but setting the block size for its existing algorithms is not an easy task. In this paper, we analyze the convergence rate of a representative algorithm with decayed learning rate (Oja and Karhunen, 1985) in the first family for the general $k>1$ case. Moreover, we propose a novel algorithm for the second family that sets the block sizes automatically and dynamically with faster convergence rate. We then conduct empirical studies that fairly compare the two families on real-world data. The studies reveal the advantages and disadvantages of these two families.

Discovering causal relationships from data is the ultimate goal of many research areas. Constraint based causal exploration algorithms, such as PC, FCI, RFCI, PC-simple, IDA and Joint-IDA have achieved significant progress and have many applications. A common problem with these methods is the high computational complexity, which hinders their applications in real world high dimensional datasets, e.g gene expression datasets. In this paper, we present an R package, ParallelPC, that includes the parallelised versions of these causal exploration algorithms. The parallelised algorithms help speed up the procedure of experimenting big datasets and reduce the memory used when running the algorithms. The package is not only suitable for super-computers or clusters, but also convenient for researchers using personal computers with multi core CPUs. Our experiment results on real world datasets show that using the parallelised algorithms it is now practical to explore causal relationships in high dimensional datasets with thousands of variables in a single multicore computer. ParallelPC is available in CRAN repository at https://cran.rproject.org/web/packages/ParallelPC/index.html.

In most sampling algorithms, including Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, transition rates between states correspond to the probability of making a transition in a single time step, and are constrained to be less than or equal to 1. We derive a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo algorithm using a continuous time Markov jump process, and are thus able to escape this constraint. Transition rates in a Markov jump process need only be non-negative. We demonstrate that the new algorithm leads to improved mixing for several example problems, both by evaluating the spectral gap of the Markov operator, and by computing autocorrelation as a function of compute time. We release the algorithm as an open source Python package.

Kernel Bayes' rule has been proposed as a nonparametric kernel-based method to realize Bayesian inference in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. However, we demonstrate both theoretically and experimentally that the prediction result by kernel Bayes' rule is in some cases unnatural. We consider that this phenomenon is in part due to the fact that the assumptions in kernel Bayes' rule do not hold in general.

In this work, we consider the class of multi-state autoregressive processes that can be used to model non-stationary time-series of interest. In order to capture different autoregressive (AR) states underlying an observed time series, it is crucial to select the appropriate number of states. We propose a new model selection technique based on the Gap statistics, which uses a null reference distribution on the stable AR filters to check whether adding a new AR state significantly improves the performance of the model. To that end, we define a new distance measure between AR filters based on mean squared prediction error (MSPE), and propose an efficient method to generate random stable filters that are uniformly distributed in the coefficient space. Numerical results are provided to evaluate the performance of the proposed approach.

In this paper we introduce a novel online time series forecasting model we refer to as the pM-GP filter. We show that our model is equivalent to Gaussian process regression, with the advantage that both online forecasting and online learning of the hyper-parameters have a constant (rather than cubic) time complexity and a constant (rather than squared) memory requirement in the number of observations, without resorting to approximations. Moreover, the proposed model is expressive in that the family of covariance functions of the implied latent process, namely the spectral Matern kernels, have recently been proven to be capable of approximating arbitrarily well any translation-invariant covariance function. The benefit of our approach compared to competing models is demonstrated using experiments on several real-life datasets.

We compare and contrast two approaches to validating a trained classifier while using all in-sample data for training. One is simultaneous validation over an organized set of hypotheses (SVOOSH), the well-known method that began with VC theory. The other is withhold and gap (WAG). WAG withholds a validation set, trains a holdout classifier on the remaining data, uses the validation data to validate that classifier, then adds the rate of disagreement between the holdout classifier and one trained using all in-sample data, which is an upper bound on the difference in error rates. We show that complex hypothesis classes and limited training data can make WAG a favorable alternative.

Data-efficient reinforcement learning (RL) in continuous state-action spaces using very high-dimensional observations remains a key challenge in developing fully autonomous systems. We consider a particularly important instance of this challenge, the pixels-to-torques problem, where an RL agent learns a closed-loop control policy ("torques") from pixel information only. We introduce a data-efficient, model-based reinforcement learning algorithm that learns such a closed-loop policy directly from pixel information. The key ingredient is a deep dynamical model for learning a low-dimensional feature embedding of images jointly with a predictive model in this low-dimensional feature space. Joint learning is crucial for long-term predictions, which lie at the core of the adaptive nonlinear model predictive control strategy that we use for closed-loop control. Compared to state-of-the-art RL methods for continuous states and actions, our approach learns quickly, scales to high-dimensional state spaces, is lightweight and an important step toward fully autonomous end-to-end learning from pixels to torques.

We seek to improve deep neural networks by generalizing the pooling operations that play a central role in current architectures. We pursue a careful exploration of approaches to allow pooling to learn and to adapt to complex and variable patterns. The two primary directions lie in (1) learning a pooling function via (two strategies of) combining of max and average pooling, and (2) learning a pooling function in the form of a tree-structured fusion of pooling filters that are themselves learned. In our experiments every generalized pooling operation we explore improves performance when used in place of average or max pooling. We experimentally demonstrate that the proposed pooling operations provide a boost in invariance properties relative to conventional pooling and set the state of the art on several widely adopted benchmark datasets; they are also easy to implement, and can be applied within various deep neural network architectures. These benefits come with only a light increase in computational overhead during training and a very modest increase in the number of model parameters.