The application of existing methods for constructing optimal dynamic treatment regimes is limited to cases where investigators are interested in optimizing a utility function over a fixed period of time (finite horizon). In this manuscript, we develop an inferential procedure based on temporal difference residuals for optimal dynamic treatment regimes in infinite-horizon settings, where there is no a priori fixed end of follow-up point. The proposed method can be used to determine the optimal regime in chronic diseases where patients are monitored and treated throughout their life. We derive large sample results necessary for conducting inference. We also simulate a cohort of patients with diabetes to mimic the third wave of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, and we examine the performance of the proposed method in controlling the level of hemoglobin A1c. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

We present GLASSES: Global optimisation with Look-Ahead through Stochastic Simulation and Expected-loss Search. The majority of global optimisation approaches in use are myopic, in only considering the impact of the next function value; the non-myopic approaches that do exist are able to consider only a handful of future evaluations. Our novel algorithm, GLASSES, permits the consideration of dozens of evaluations into the future. This is done by approximating the ideal look-ahead loss function, which is expensive to evaluate, by a cheaper alternative in which the future steps of the algorithm are simulated beforehand. An Expectation Propagation algorithm is used to compute the expected value of the loss.We show that the far-horizon planning thus enabled leads to substantive performance gains in empirical tests.

Acyclic digraphs are the underlying representation of Bayesian networks, a widely used class of probabilistic graphical models. Learning the underlying graph from data is a way of gaining insights about the structural properties of a domain. Structure learning forms one of the inference challenges of statistical graphical models. MCMC methods, notably structure MCMC, to sample graphs from the posterior distribution given the data are probably the only viable option for Bayesian model averaging. Score modularity and restrictions on the number of parents of each node allow the graphs to be grouped into larger collections, which can be scored as a whole to improve the chain's convergence. Current examples of algorithms taking advantage of grouping are the biased order MCMC, which acts on the alternative space of permuted triangular matrices, and non ergodic edge reversal moves. Here we propose a novel algorithm, which employs the underlying combinatorial structure of DAGs to define a new grouping. As a result convergence is improved compared to structure MCMC, while still retaining the property of producing an unbiased sample. Finally the method can be combined with edge reversal moves to improve the sampler further.

Principal component analysis (PCA) for binary data, known as logistic PCA, has become a popular alternative to dimensionality reduction of binary data. It is motivated as an extension of ordinary PCA by means of a matrix factorization, akin to the singular value decomposition, that maximizes the Bernoulli log-likelihood. We propose a new formulation of logistic PCA which extends Pearson's formulation of a low dimensional data representation with minimum error to binary data. Our formulation does not require a matrix factorization, as previous methods do, but instead looks for projections of the natural parameters from the saturated model. Due to this difference, the number of parameters does not grow with the number of observations and the principal component scores on new data can be computed with simple matrix multiplication. We derive explicit solutions for data matrices of special structure and provide computationally efficient algorithms for solving for the principal component loadings. Through simulation experiments and an analysis of medical diagnoses data, we compare our formulation of logistic PCA to the previous formulation as well as ordinary PCA to demonstrate its benefits.

Tensor CANDECOMP/PARAFAC (CP) decomposition has wide applications in statistical learning of latent variable models and in data mining. In this paper, we propose fast and randomized tensor CP decomposition algorithms based on sketching. We build on the idea of count sketches, but introduce many novel ideas which are unique to tensors. We develop novel methods for randomized computation of tensor contractions via FFTs, without explicitly forming the tensors. Such tensor contractions are encountered in decomposition methods such as tensor power iterations and alternating least squares. We also design novel colliding hashes for symmetric tensors to further save time in computing the sketches. We then combine these sketching ideas with existing whitening and tensor power iterative techniques to obtain the fastest algorithm on both sparse and dense tensors. The quality of approximation under our method does not depend on properties such as sparsity, uniformity of elements, etc. We apply the method for topic modeling and obtain competitive results.

Variable selection is a fundamental task in statistical data analysis. Sparsity-inducing regularization methods are a popular class of methods that simultaneously perform variable selection and model estimation. The central problem is a quadratic optimization problem with an l0-norm penalty. Exactly enforcing the l0-norm penalty is computationally intractable for larger scale problems, so dif- ferent sparsity-inducing penalty functions that approximate the l0-norm have been introduced. In this paper, we show that viewing the problem from a convex relaxation perspective offers new insights. In particular, we show that a popular sparsity-inducing concave penalty function known as the Minimax Concave Penalty (MCP), and the reverse Huber penalty derived in a recent work by Pilanci, Wainwright and Ghaoui, can both be derived as special cases of a lifted convex relaxation called the perspective relaxation. The optimal perspective relaxation is a related minimax problem that balances the overall convexity and tightness of approximation to the l0 norm. We show it can be solved by a semidefinite relaxation. Moreover, a probabilistic interpretation of the semidefinite relaxation reveals connections with the boolean quadric polytope in combinatorial optimization. Finally by reformulating the l0-norm pe- nalized problem as a two-level problem, with the inner level being a Max-Cut problem, our proposed semidefinite relaxation can be realized by replacing the inner level problem with its semidefinite relaxation studied by Goemans and Williamson. This interpretation suggests using the Goemans-Williamson rounding procedure to find approximate solutions to the l0-norm penalized problem. Numerical experiments demonstrate the tightness of our proposed semidefinite relaxation, and the effectiveness of finding approximate solutions by Goemans-Williamson rounding.

Exploiting the large amount of available data for addressing relevant social problems has been one of the key challenges in data mining. Such efforts have been recently named "data science for social good" and attracted the attention of several researchers and institutions. We give a contribution in this objective in this paper considering a difficult public health problem, the timely monitoring of dengue epidemics in small geographical areas. We develop a generative simple yet effective model to connect the fluctuations of disease cases and disease-related Twitter posts. We considered a hidden Markov process driving both, the fluctuations in dengue reported cases and the tweets issued in each region. We add a stable but random source of tweets to represent the posts when no disease cases are recorded. The model is learned through a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that produces the posterior distribution of the relevant parameters. Using data from a significant number of large Brazilian towns, we demonstrate empirically that our model is able to predict well the next weeks of the disease counts using the tweets and disease cases jointly.

The design of efficient solutions for abstract argumentation problems is a crucial step towards advanced argumentation systems. One of the most prominent approaches in the literature is to use Answer-Set Programming (ASP) for this endeavor. In this paper, we present new encodings for three prominent argumentation semantics using the concept of conditional literals in disjunctions as provided by the ASP-system clingo. Our new encodings are not only more succinct than previous versions, but also outperform them on standard benchmarks.

As part of daily monitoring of human activities, wearable sensors and devices are becoming increasingly popular sources of data. With the advent of smartphones equipped with acceloremeter, gyroscope and camera; it is now possible to develop activity classification platforms everyone can use conveniently. In this paper, we propose a fast inference method for an unsupervised non-parametric time series model namely variational inference for sticky HDP-SLDS(Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Switching Linear Dynamical System). We show that the proposed algorithm can differentiate various indoor activities such as sitting, walking, turning, going up/down the stairs and taking the elevator using only the acceloremeter of an Android smartphone Samsung Galaxy S4. We used the front camera of the smartphone to annotate activity types precisely. We compared the proposed method with Hidden Markov Models with Gaussian emission probabilities on a dataset of 10 subjects. We showed that the efficacy of the stickiness property. We further compared the variational inference to the Gibbs sampler on the same model and show that variational inference is faster in one order of magnitude.

The use of mutual information as a similarity measure in agglomerative hierarchical clustering (AHC) raises an important issue: some correction needs to be applied for the dimensionality of variables. In this work, we formulate the decision of merging dependent multivariate normal variables in an AHC procedure as a Bayesian model comparison. We found that the Bayesian formulation naturally shrinks the empirical covariance matrix towards a matrix set a priori (e.g., the identity), provides an automated stopping rule, and corrects for dimensionality using a term that scales up the measure as a function of the dimensionality of the variables. Also, the resulting log Bayes factor is asymptotically proportional to the plug-in estimate of mutual information, with an additive correction for dimensionality in agreement with the Bayesian information criterion. We investigated the behavior of these Bayesian alternatives (in exact and asymptotic forms) to mutual information on simulated and real data. An encouraging result was first derived on simulations: the hierarchical clustering based on the log Bayes factor outperformed off-the-shelf clustering techniques as well as raw and normalized mutual information in terms of classification accuracy. On a toy example, we found that the Bayesian approaches led to results that were similar to those of mutual information clustering techniques, with the advantage of an automated thresholding. On real functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) datasets measuring brain activity, it identified clusters consistent with the established outcome of standard procedures. On this application, normalized mutual information had a highly atypical behavior, in the sense that it systematically favored very large clusters. These initial experiments suggest that the proposed Bayesian alternatives to mutual information are a useful new tool for hierarchical clustering.