We study parameter estimation and asymptotic inference for sparse nonlinear regression. More specifically, we assume the data are given by $y = f( x^\top \beta^* ) + \epsilon$, where $f$ is nonlinear. To recover $\beta^*$, we propose an $\ell_1$-regularized least-squares estimator. Unlike classical linear regression, the corresponding optimization problem is nonconvex because of the nonlinearity of $f$. In spite of the nonconvexity, we prove that under mild conditions, every stationary point of the objective enjoys an optimal statistical rate of convergence. In addition, we provide an efficient algorithm that provably converges to a stationary point. We also access the uncertainty of the obtained estimator. Specifically, based on any stationary point of the objective, we construct valid hypothesis tests and confidence intervals for the low dimensional components of the high-dimensional parameter $\beta^*$. Detailed numerical results are provided to back up our theory.

We present a scalable Gaussian process model for identifying and characterizing smooth multidimensional changepoints, and automatically learning changes in expressive covariance structure. We use Random Kitchen Sink features to flexibly define a change surface in combination with expressive spectral mixture kernels to capture the complex statistical structure. Finally, through the use of novel methods for additive non-separable kernels, we can scale the model to large datasets. We demonstrate the model on numerical and real world data, including a large spatio-temporal disease dataset where we identify previously unknown heterogeneous changes in space and time.

For regular particle filter algorithm or Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods, the initial weights are traditionally dependent on the proposed distribution, the posterior distribution at the current timestamp in the sampled sequence, and the target is the posterior distribution of the previous timestamp. This is technically correct, but leads to algorithms which usually have practical issues with degeneracy, where all particles eventually collapse onto a single particle. In this paper, we propose and evaluate using $k$ means clustering to attack and even take advantage of this degeneracy. Specifically, we propose a Stochastic SMC algorithm which initializes the set of $k$ means, providing the initial centers chosen from the collapsed particles. To fight against degeneracy, we adjust the regular SMC weights, mediated by cluster proportions, and then correct them to retain the same expectation as before. We experimentally demonstrate that our approach has better performance than vanilla algorithms.

We provide the first differentially private algorithms for controlling the false discovery rate (FDR) in multiple hypothesis testing, with essentially no loss in power under certain conditions. Our general approach is to adapt a well-known variant of the Benjamini-Hochberg procedure (BHq), making each step differentially private. This destroys the classical proof of FDR control. To prove FDR control of our method, (a) we develop a new proof of the original (non-private) BHq algorithm and its robust variants -- a proof requiring only the assumption that the true null test statistics are independent, allowing for arbitrary correlations between the true nulls and false nulls. This assumption is fairly weak compared to those previously shown in the vast literature on this topic, and explains in part the empirical robustness of BHq. Then (b) we relate the FDR control properties of the differentially private version to the control properties of the non-private version. \end{enumerate} We also present a low-distortion "one-shot" differentially private primitive for "top $k$" problems, e.g., "Which are the $k$ most popular hobbies?" (which we apply to: "Which hypotheses have the $k$ most significant $p$-values?"), and use it to get a faster privacy-preserving instantiation of our general approach at little cost in accuracy. The proof of privacy for the one-shot top~$k$ algorithm introduces a new technique of independent interest.

Supervised learning is an active research area, with numerous applications in diverse fields such as data analytics, computer vision, speech and audio processing, and image understanding. In most cases, the loss functions used in machine learning assume symmetric noise models, and seek to estimate the unknown function parameters. However, loss functions such as quantile and quantile Huber generalize the symmetric $\ell_1$ and Huber losses to the asymmetric setting, for a fixed quantile parameter. In this paper, we propose to jointly infer the quantile parameter and the unknown function parameters, for the asymmetric quantile Huber and quantile losses. We explore various properties of the quantile Huber loss and implement a convexity certificate that can be used to check convexity in the quantile parameter. When the loss if convex with respect to the parameter of the function, we prove that it is biconvex in both the function and the quantile parameters, and propose an algorithm to jointly estimate these. Results with synthetic and real data demonstrate that the proposed approach can automatically recover the quantile parameter corresponding to the noise and also provide an improved recovery of function parameters. To illustrate the potential of the framework, we extend the gradient boosting machines with quantile losses to automatically estimate the quantile parameter at each iteration.

The question of aggregating pair-wise comparisons to obtain a global ranking over a collection of objects has been of interest for a very long time: be it ranking of online gamers (e.g. MSR's TrueSkill system) and chess players, aggregating social opinions, or deciding which product to sell based on transactions. In most settings, in addition to obtaining a ranking, finding `scores' for each object (e.g. player's rating) is of interest for understanding the intensity of the preferences. In this paper, we propose Rank Centrality, an iterative rank aggregation algorithm for discovering scores for objects (or items) from pair-wise comparisons. The algorithm has a natural random walk interpretation over the graph of objects with an edge present between a pair of objects if they are compared; the score, which we call Rank Centrality, of an object turns out to be its stationary probability under this random walk. To study the efficacy of the algorithm, we consider the popular Bradley-Terry-Luce (BTL) model (equivalent to the Multinomial Logit (MNL) for pair-wise comparisons) in which each object has an associated score which determines the probabilistic outcomes of pair-wise comparisons between objects. In terms of the pair-wise marginal probabilities, which is the main subject of this paper, the MNL model and the BTL model are identical. We bound the finite sample error rates between the scores assumed by the BTL model and those estimated by our algorithm. In particular, the number of samples required to learn the score well with high probability depends on the structure of the comparison graph. When the Laplacian of the comparison graph has a strictly positive spectral gap, e.g. each item is compared to a subset of randomly chosen items, this leads to dependence on the number of samples that is nearly order-optimal.

The use of distributions and high-level features from deep architecture has become commonplace in modern computer vision. Both of these methodologies have separately achieved a great deal of success in many computer vision tasks. However, there has been little work attempting to leverage the power of these to methodologies jointly. To this end, this paper presents the Deep Mean Maps (DMMs) framework, a novel family of methods to non-parametrically represent distributions of features in convolutional neural network models. DMMs are able to both classify images using the distribution of top-level features, and to tune the top-level features for performing this task. We show how to implement DMMs using a special mean map layer composed of typical CNN operations, making both forward and backward propagation simple. We illustrate the efficacy of DMMs at analyzing distributional patterns in image data in a synthetic data experiment. We also show that we extending existing deep architectures with DMMs improves the performance of existing CNNs on several challenging real-world datasets.

In dynamic topic modeling, the proportional contribution of a topic to a document depends on the temporal dynamics of that topic's overall prevalence in the corpus. We extend the Dynamic Topic Model of Blei and Lafferty (2006) by explicitly modeling document level topic proportions with covariates and dynamic structure that includes polynomial trends and periodicity. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm that utilizes Polya-Gamma data augmentation is developed for posterior inference. Conditional independencies in the model and sampling are made explicit, and our MCMC algorithm is parallelized where possible to allow for inference in large corpora. To address computational bottlenecks associated with Polya-Gamma sampling, we appeal to the Central Limit Theorem to develop a Gaussian approximation to the Polya-Gamma random variable. This approximation is fast and reliable for parameter values relevant in the text mining domain. Our model and inference algorithm are validated with multiple simulation examples, and we consider the application of modeling trends in PubMed abstracts. We demonstrate that sharing information across documents is critical for accurately estimating document-specific topic proportions. We also show that explicitly modeling polynomial and periodic behavior improves our ability to predict topic prevalence at future time points.

Answering conjunctive queries over ontology-enriched datasets is a core reasoning task for many applications. Query answering is, however, computationally very expensive, which has led to the development of query answering procedures that sacrifice either expressive power of the ontology language, or the completeness of query answers in order to improve scalability. In this paper, we describe a hybrid approach to query answering over OWL 2 ontologies that combines a datalog reasoner with a fully-fledged OWL 2 reasoner in order to provide scalable `pay-as-you-go' performance. The key feature of our approach is that it delegates the bulk of the computation to the datalog reasoner and resorts to expensive OWL 2 reasoning only as necessary to fully answer the query. Furthermore, although our main goal is to efficiently answer queries over OWL 2 ontologies and data, our technical results are very general and our approach is applicable to first-order knowledge representation languages that can be captured by rules allowing for existential quantification and disjunction in the head; our only assumption is the availability of a datalog reasoner and a fully-fledged reasoner for the language of interest, both of which are used as `black boxes'. We have implemented our techniques in the PAGOdA system, which combines the datalog reasoner RDFox and the OWL 2 reasoner HermiT. Our extensive evaluation shows that PAGOdA succeeds in providing scalable pay-as-you-go query answering for a wide range of OWL 2 ontologies, datasets and queries.

Latent factor models are the canonical statistical tool for exploratory analyses of low-dimensional linear structure for an observation matrix with p features across n samples. We develop a structured Bayesian group factor analysis model that extends the factor model to multiple coupled observation matrices; in the case of two observations, this reduces to a Bayesian model of canonical correlation analysis. The main contribution of this work is to carefully define a structured Bayesian prior that encourages both element-wise and column-wise shrinkage and leads to desirable behavior on high-dimensional data. In particular, our model puts a structured prior on the joint factor loading matrix, regularizing at three levels, which enables element-wise sparsity and unsupervised recovery of latent factors corresponding to structured variance across arbitrary subsets of the observations. In addition, our structured prior allows for both dense and sparse latent factors so that covariation among either all features or only a subset of features can both be recovered. We use fast parameter-expanded expectation-maximization for parameter estimation in this model. We validate our method on both simulated data with substantial structure and real data, comparing against a number of state-of-the-art approaches. These results illustrate useful properties of our model, including i) recovering sparse signal in the presence of dense effects; ii) the ability to scale naturally to large numbers of observations; iii) flexible observation- and factor-specific regularization to recover factors with a wide variety of sparsity levels and percentage of variance explained; and iv) tractable inference that scales to modern genomic and document data sizes.