We develop a general variational inference method that preserves dependency among the latent variables. Our method uses copulas to augment the families of distributions used in mean-field and structured approximations. Copulas model the dependency that is not captured by the original variational distribution, and thus the augmented variational family guarantees better approximations to the posterior. With stochastic optimization, inference on the augmented distribution is scalable. Furthermore, our strategy is generic: it can be applied to any inference procedure that currently uses the mean-field or structured approach. Copula variational inference has many advantages: it reduces bias; it is less sensitive to local optima; it is less sensitive to hyperparameters; and it helps characterize and interpret the dependency among the latent variables.

We combine supervised learning with unsupervised learning in deep neural networks. The proposed model is trained to simultaneously minimize the sum of supervised and unsupervised cost functions by backpropagation, avoiding the need for layer-wise pre-training. Our work builds on top of the Ladder network proposed by Valpola (2015) which we extend by combining the model with supervision. We show that the resulting model reaches state-of-the-art performance in semi-supervised MNIST and CIFAR-10 classification in addition to permutation-invariant MNIST classification with all labels.

Stochastic search algorithms are general black-box optimizers. Due to their ease of use and their generality, they have recently also gained a lot of attention in operations research, machine learning and policy search. Yet, these algorithms require a lot of evaluations of the objective, scale poorly with the problem dimension, are affected by highly noisy objective functions and may converge prematurely. To alleviate these problems, we introduce a new surrogate-based stochastic search approach. We learn simple, quadratic surrogate models of the objective function. As the quality of such a quadratic approximation is limited, we do not greedily exploit the learned models. The algorithm can be misled by an inaccurate optimum introduced by the surrogate. Instead, we use information theoretic constraints to bound the `distance' between the new and old data distribution while maximizing the objective function. Additionally the new method is able to sustain the exploration of the search distribution to avoid premature convergence. We compare our method with state of art black-box optimization methods on standard uni-modal and multi-modal optimization functions, on simulated planar robot tasks and a complex robot ball throwing task.The proposed method considerably outperforms the existing approaches.

In a variety of problems originating in supervised, unsupervised, and reinforcement learning, the loss function is defined by an expectation over a collection of random variables, which might be part of a probabilistic model or the external world. Estimating the gradient of this loss function, using samples, lies at the core of gradient-based learning algorithms for these problems. We introduce the formalism of stochastic computation graphs--directed acyclic graphs that include both deterministic functions and conditional probability distributions and describe how to easily and automatically derive an unbiased estimator of the loss function's gradient. The resulting algorithm for computing the gradient estimator is a simple modification of the standard backpropagation algorithm. The generic scheme we propose unifies estimators derived in variety of prior work, along with variance-reduction techniques therein. It could assist researchers in developing intricate models involving a combination of stochastic and deterministic operations, enabling, for example, attention, memory, and control actions.

By making personalized suggestions, a recommender system is playing a crucial role in improving the engagement of users in modern web-services. However, most recommendation algorithms do not explicitly take into account the temporal behavior and the recurrent activities of users. Two central but less explored questions are how to recommend the most desirable item \emph{at the right moment}, and how to predict \emph{the next returning time} of a user to a service. To address these questions, we propose a novel framework which connects self-exciting point processes and low-rank models to capture the recurrent temporal patterns in a large collection of user-item consumption pairs. We show that the parameters of the model can be estimated via a convex optimization, and furthermore, we develop an efficient algorithm that maintains $O(1 / \epsilon)$ convergence rate, scales up to problems with millions of user-item pairs and thousands of millions of temporal events. Compared to other state-of-the-arts in both synthetic and real datasets, our model achieves superb predictive performance in the two time-sensitive recommendation questions. Finally, we point out that our formulation can incorporate other extra context information of users, such as profile, textual and spatial features.

In user-facing applications, displaying calibrated confidence measures---probabilities that correspond to true frequency---can be as important as obtaining high accuracy. We are interested in calibration for structured prediction problems such as speech recognition, optical character recognition, and medical diagnosis. Structured prediction presents new challenges for calibration: the output space is large, and users may issue many types of probability queries (e.g., marginals) on the structured output. We extend the notion of calibration so as to handle various subtleties pertaining to the structured setting, and then provide a simple recalibration method that trains a binary classifier to predict probabilities of interest. We explore a range of features appropriate for structured recalibration, and demonstrate their efficacy on three real-world datasets.

Our goal is to deploy a high-accuracy system starting with zero training examples. We consider an “on-the-job” setting, where as inputs arrive, we use real-time crowdsourcing to resolve uncertainty where needed and output our prediction when confident. As the model improves over time, the reliance on crowdsourcing queries decreases. We cast our setting as a stochastic game based on Bayesian decision theory, which allows us to balance latency, cost, and accuracy objectives in a principled way. Computing the optimal policy is intractable, so we develop an approximation based on Monte Carlo Tree Search. We tested our approach on three datasets-- named-entity recognition, sentiment classification, and image classification. On the NER task we obtained more than an order of magnitude reduction in cost compared to full human annotation, while boosting performance relative to the expert provided labels. We also achieve a 8% F1 improvement over having a single human label the whole set, and a 28% F1 improvement over online learning.

Many practical modeling problems involve discrete data that are best represented as draws from multinomial or categorical distributions. For example, nucleotides in a DNA sequence, children's names in a given state and year, and text documents are all commonly modeled with multinomial distributions. In all of these cases, we expect some form of dependency between the draws: the nucleotide at one position in the DNA strand may depend on the preceding nucleotides, children's names are highly correlated from year to year, and topics in text may be correlated and dynamic. These dependencies are not naturally captured by the typical Dirichlet-multinomial formulation. Here, we leverage a logistic stick-breaking representation and recent innovations in P\'{o}lya-gamma augmentation to reformulate the multinomial distribution in terms of latent variables with jointly Gaussian likelihoods, enabling us to take advantage of a host of Bayesian inference techniques for Gaussian models with minimal overhead.

We study matrix completion problem with side information. Side information has been considered in several matrix completion applications, and is generally shown to be useful empirically. Recently, Xu et al. studied the effect of side information for matrix completion under a theoretical viewpoint, showing that sample complexity can be significantly reduced given completely clean features. However, since in reality most given features are noisy or even weakly informative, how to develop a general model to handle general feature set, and how much the noisy features can help matrix recovery in theory, is still an important issue to investigate. In this paper, we propose a novel model that balances between features and observations simultaneously, enabling us to leverage feature information yet to be robust to feature noise. Moreover, we study the effectof general features in theory, and show that by using our model, the sample complexity can still be lower than matrix completion as long as features are sufficiently informative. This result provides a theoretical insight of usefulness for general side information. Finally, we consider synthetic data and two real applications - relationship prediction and semi-supervised clustering, showing that our model outperforms other methods for matrix completion with features both in theory and practice.

We propose a new first-order optimization algorithm to solve high-dimensional non-smooth composite minimization problems. Typical examples of such problems have an objective that decomposes into a non-smooth empirical risk part and a non-smooth regularization penalty. The proposed algorithm, called Semi-Proximal Mirror-Prox, leverages the saddle point representation of one part of the objective while handling the other part of the objective via linear minimization over the domain. The algorithm stands in contrast with more classical proximal gradient algorithms with smoothing, which require the computation of proximal operators at each iteration and can therefore be impractical for high-dimensional problems. We establish the theoretical convergence rate of Semi-Proximal Mirror-Prox, which exhibits the optimal complexity bounds for the number of calls to linear minimization oracle. We present promising experimental results showing the interest of the approach in comparison to competing methods.