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OnlineForecastingofTotal-Variation-bounded Sequences

Neural Information Processing Systems

We consider the problem of online forecasting of sequences of lengthn with total-variation at mostCn using observations contaminated by independentฯƒsubgaussian noise. We design anO(nlogn)-time algorithm that achieves a cu-mulativesquare error of O(n1/3C2/3n ฯƒ4/3+C2n)with high probability.