We consider an online learning problem in environments with multiple change points. In contrast to the single change point problem that is widely studied using classical "high confidence" detection schemes, the multiple change point environment presents new learning-theoretic and algorithmic challenges. Specifically, we show that classical methods may exhibit catastrophic failure (high regret) due to a phenomenon we refer to as endogenous confounding. To overcome this, we propose a new class of learning algorithms dubbed Anytime Tracking CUSUM (ATC). These are horizon-free online algorithms that implement a selective detection principle, balancing the need to ignore "small" (hard-to-detect) shifts, while reacting "quickly" to significant ones. We prove that the performance of a properly tuned ATC algorithm is nearly minimax-optimal; its regret is guaranteed to closely match a novel information-theoretic lower bound on the achievable performance of any learning algorithm in the multiple change point problem. Experiments on synthetic as well as real-world data validate the aforementioned theoretical findings.

We introduce a novel cyclic Markov decision process (MDP) framework for multi-step decision problems with heterogeneous stage-specific dynamics, transitions, and discount factors across the cycle. In this setting, offline learning is challenging: optimizing a policy at any stage shifts the state distributions of subsequent stages, propagating mismatch across the cycle. To address this, we propose a modular structural framework that decomposes the cyclic process into stage-wise sub-problems. While generally applicable, we instantiate this principle as CycleFQI, an extension of fitted Q-iteration enabling theoretical analysis and interpretation. It uses a vector of stage-specific Q-functions, tailored to each stage, to capture within-stage sequences and transitions between stages. This modular design enables partial control, allowing some stages to be optimized while others follow predefined policies. We establish finite-sample suboptimality error bounds and derive global convergence rates under Besov regularity, demonstrating that CycleFQI mitigates the curse of dimensionality compared to monolithic baselines. Additionally, we propose a sieve-based method for asymptotic inference of optimal policy values under a margin condition. Experiments on simulated and real-world Type 1 Diabetes data sets demonstrate CycleFQI's effectiveness.

Feature-importance methods show promise in transforming machine learning models from predictive engines into tools for scientific discovery. However, due to data sampling and algorithmic stochasticity, expressive models can be unstable, leading to inaccurate variable importance estimates and undermining their utility in critical biomedical applications. Although ensembling offers a solution, deciding whether to explain a single ensemble model or aggregate individual model explanations is difficult due to the nonlinearity of importance measures and remains largely understudied. Our theoretical analysis, developed under assumptions accommodating complex state-of-the-art ML models, reveals that this choice is primarily driven by the model's excess risk. In contrast to prior literature, we show that ensembling at the model level provides more accurate variable-importance estimates, particularly for expressive models, by reducing this leading error term. We validate these findings on classical benchmarks and a large-scale proteomic study from the UK Biobank.

We study offline reinforcement learning under $Q^\star$-approximation and partial coverage, a setting that motivates practical algorithms such as Conservative $Q$-Learning (CQL; Kumar et al., 2020) but has received limited theoretical attention. Our work is inspired by the following open question: "Are $Q^\star$-realizability and Bellman completeness sufficient for sample-efficient offline RL under partial coverage?" We answer in the negative by establishing an information-theoretic lower bound. Going substantially beyond this, we introduce a general framework that characterizes the intrinsic complexity of a given $Q^\star$ function class, inspired by model-free decision-estimation coefficients (DEC) for online RL (Foster et al., 2023b; Liu et al., 2025b). This complexity recovers and improves the quantities underlying the guarantees of Chen and Jiang (2022) and Uehara et al. (2023), and extends to broader settings. Our decision-estimation decomposition can be combined with a wide range of $Q^\star$ estimation procedures, modularizing and generalizing existing approaches. Beyond the general framework, we make further contributions: By developing a novel second-order performance difference lemma, we obtain the first $ε^{-2}$ sample complexity under partial coverage for soft $Q$-learning, improving the $ε^{-4}$ bound of Uehara et al. (2023). We remove Chen and Jiang's (2022) need for additional online interaction when the value gap of $Q^\star$ is unknown. We also give the first characterization of offline learnability for general low-Bellman-rank MDPs without Bellman completeness (Jiang et al., 2017; Du et al., 2021; Jin et al., 2021), a canonical setting in online RL that remains unexplored in offline RL except for special cases. Finally, we provide the first analysis for CQL under $Q^\star$-realizability and Bellman completeness beyond the tabular case.

Obtaining reliable inferences with traditional difference-in-differences (DiD) methods can be difficult. Problems can arise when both outcomes and errors are serially correlated, when there are few clusters or few treated clusters, when cluster sizes vary greatly, and in various other cases. In recent years, recognition of the ``staggered adoption'' problem has shifted the focus away from inference towards consistent estimation of treatment effects. One of the most popular new estimators is the CSDID procedure of Callaway and Sant'Anna (2021). We find that the issues of over-rejection with few clusters and/or few treated clusters are at least as severe for CSDID as for traditional DiD methods. We also propose using a cluster jackknife for inference with CSDID, which simulations suggest greatly improves inference. We provide software packages in Stata csdidjack and R didjack to calculate cluster-jackknife standard errors easily.

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Tothebestofourknowledge, ourenhanced latent space blind model, optimization scheme, NFAEandFM2A havenot been reported in the previous literature.

It extends POMDPs to multi-agent settings by including models of other agents in the state space and forming a hierarchical belief structure.