We consider a Bayesian forecast aggregation model where n experts, after observing private signals about an unknown binary event, report th eir posterior beliefs about the event to a principal, who then aggregates the repor ts into a single prediction for the event. The signals of the experts and the outcome of the event follow a joint distribution that is unknown to the principal, but th e principal has access to i.i.d. "samples" from the distribution, where each sampl e is a tuple of the experts' reports (not signals) and the realization of the even t. Using these samples, the principal aims to find an ε -approximately optimal aggregator, where optimal-ity is measured in terms of the expected squared distance bet ween the aggregated prediction and the realization of the event.

Humans diminishes weightF ( ), theeventE = I {, i.e.

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To achieve a stable alignment of feature distributions, we also introduce a SDA strategy to mitigate domain discrepancy on the sphere.

Conversely, adaptive first order methods are very popular in Machine Learning, with AdaGrad, [12],beingthemostprominent methodamongthisclass. AdaGrad isanonlinelearning algorithm which adapts its learning rate using the feedback (gradients) received through the optimization process, and is known to successfully handle noisy feedback.

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