In the era of large language models (LLMs), fine-tuning pretrained models has become ubiquitous. Yet the theoretical underpinning remains an open question. A central question is why only a few epochs of fine-tuning are typically sufficient to achieve strong performance on many different tasks. In this work, we approach this question by developing a statistical framework, combining rigorous early stopping theory with the attention-based Neural Tangent Kernel (NTK) for LLMs, offering new theoretical insights on fine-tuning practices. Specifically, we formally extend classical NTK theory [Jacot et al., 2018] to non-random (i.e., pretrained) initializations and provide a convergence guarantee for attention-based fine-tuning. One key insight provided by the theory is that the convergence rate with respect to sample size is closely linked to the eigenvalue decay rate of the empirical kernel matrix induced by the NTK. We also demonstrate how the framework can be used to explain task vectors for multiple tasks in LLMs. Finally, experiments with modern language models on real-world datasets provide empirical evidence supporting our theoretical insights.

A key challenge in probabilistic regression is ensuring that predictive distributions accurately reflect true empirical uncertainty. Minimizing overall prediction error often encourages models to prioritize informativeness over calibration, producing narrow but overconfident predictions. However, in safety-critical settings, trustworthy uncertainty estimates are often more valuable than narrow intervals. Realizing the problem, several recent works have focused on post-hoc corrections; however, existing methods either rely on weak notions of calibration (such as PIT uniformity) or impose restrictive parametric assumptions on the nature of the error. To address these limitations, we propose a novel nonparametric re-calibration algorithm based on conditional kernel mean embeddings, capable of correcting calibration error without restrictive modeling assumptions. For efficient inference with real-valued targets, we introduce a novel characteristic kernel over distributions that can be evaluated in $\mathcal{O}(n \log n)$ time for empirical distributions of size $n$. We demonstrate that our method consistently outperforms prior re-calibration approaches across a diverse set of regression benchmarks and model classes.

The hazard ratio from the Cox proportional hazards model is a ubiquitous summary of treatment effect. However, when hazards are non-proportional, the hazard ratio can lose a stable causal interpretation and become study-dependent because it effectively averages time-varying effects with weights determined by follow-up and censoring. We consider the average hazard (AH) as an alternative causal estimand: a population-level person-time event rate that remains well-defined and interpretable without assuming proportional hazards. Although AH can be estimated nonparametrically and regression-style adjustments have been proposed, existing approaches do not provide a general framework for flexible, high-dimensional nuisance estimation with valid sqrt{n} inference. We address this gap by developing a semiparametric, doubly robust framework for covariate-adjusted AH. We establish pathwise differentiability of AH in the nonparametric model, derive its efficient influence function, and construct cross-fitted, debiased estimators that leverage machine learning for nuisance estimation while retaining asymptotically normal, sqrt{n}-consistent inference under mild product-rate conditions. Simulations demonstrate that the proposed estimator achieves small bias and near-nominal confidence-interval coverage across proportional and non-proportional hazards settings, including crossing-hazards regimes where Cox-based summaries can be unstable. We illustrate practical utility in comparative effectiveness research by comparing immunotherapy regimens for advanced melanoma using SEER-Medicare linked data.

Computation methods for solving entropy-regularized reward optimization -- a class of problems widely used for fine-tuning generative models -- have advanced rapidly. Among those, Adjoint Matching (AM, Domingo-Enrich et al., 2025) has proven highly effective in continuous state spaces with differentiable rewards. Transferring these practical successes to discrete generative modeling, however, remains particularly challenging and largely unexplored, mainly due to the drastic shift in generative model classes to discrete state spaces, which are nowhere differentiable. In this work, we propose Discrete Adjoint Matching (DAM) -- a discrete variant of AM for fine-tuning discrete generative models characterized by Continuous-Time Markov Chains, such as diffusion-based large language models. The core of DAM is the introduction of discrete adjoint-an estimator of the optimal solution to the original problem but formulated on discrete domains-from which standard matching frameworks can be applied. This is derived via a purely statistical standpoint, in contrast to the control-theoretic viewpoint in AM, thereby opening up new algorithmic opportunities for general adjoint-based estimators. We showcase DAM's effectiveness on synthetic and mathematical reasoning tasks.

Algorithmic \emph{replicability} has recently been introduced to address the need for reproducible experiments in machine learning. A \emph{replicable online learning} algorithm is one that takes the same sequence of decisions across different executions in the same environment, with high probability. We initiate the study of algorithmic replicability in \emph{constrained} MAB problems, where a learner interacts with an unknown stochastic environment for $T$ rounds, seeking not only to maximize reward but also to satisfy multiple constraints. Our main result is that replicability can be achieved in constrained MABs. Specifically, we design replicable algorithms whose regret and constraint violation match those of non-replicable ones in terms of $T$. As a key step toward these guarantees, we develop the first replicable UCB-like algorithm for \emph{unconstrained} MABs, showing that algorithms that employ the optimism in-the-face-of-uncertainty principle can be replicable, a result that we believe is of independent interest.

We propose a sequential test for detecting arbitrary distribution shifts that allows conformal test martingales (CTMs) to work under a fixed, reference-conditional setting. Existing CTM detectors construct test martingales by continually growing a reference set with each incoming sample, using it to assess how atypical the new sample is relative to past observations. While this design yields anytime-valid type-I error control, it suffers from test-time contamination: after a change, post-shift observations enter the reference set and dilute the evidence for distribution shift, increasing detection delay and reducing power. In contrast, our method avoids contamination by design by comparing each new sample to a fixed null reference dataset. Our main technical contribution is a robust martingale construction that remains valid conditional on the null reference data, achieved by explicitly accounting for the estimation error in the reference distribution induced by the finite reference set. This yields anytime-valid type-I error control together with guarantees of asymptotic power one and bounded expected detection delay. Empirically, our method detects shifts faster than standard CTMs, providing a powerful and reliable distribution-shift detector.

Recent advances in automated theorem proving leverages language models to explore expanded search spaces by step-by-step proof generation. However, such approaches are usually based on short-sighted heuristics (e.g., log probability or value function scores) that potentially lead to suboptimal or even distracting sub-goals, preventing us from finding longer proofs. To address this challenge, we propose POETRY (PrOvE Theorems RecursivelY), which proves theorems in a recursive, level-by-level manner in the Isabelle theorem prover. Unlike previous step-by-step methods, POETRY searches for a verifiable sketch of the proof at each level and focuses on solving the current level's theorem or conjecture. Detailed proofs of intermediate conjectures within the sketch are temporarily replaced by a placeholder tactic called sorry, deferring their proofs to subsequent levels. This approach allows the theorem to be tackled incrementally by outlining the overall theorem at the first level and then solving the intermediate conjectures at deeper levels. Experiments are conducted on the miniF2F and PISA datasets and significant performance gains are observed in our POETRY approach over state-of-the-art methods. POETRY on miniF2F achieves an average proving success rate improvement of 5. 1% . Moreover, we observe a substantial increase in the maximum proof length found by POETRY, from 10 to 26 .