Estimating how uncertain an AI system is in its predictions is important to improve the safety of such systems. Uncertainty in predictive can result from uncertainty in model parameters, irreducible \emph{data uncertainty} and uncertainty due to distributional mismatch between the test and training data distributions. Different actions might be taken depending on the source of the uncertainty so it is important to be able to distinguish between them. Recently, baseline tasks and metrics have been defined and several practical methods to estimate uncertainty developed. These methods, however, attempt to model uncertainty due to distributional mismatch either implicitly through \emph{model uncertainty} or as \emph{data uncertainty}. This work proposes a new framework for modeling predictive uncertainty called Prior Networks (PNs) which explicitly models \emph{distributional uncertainty}. PNs do this by parameterizing a prior distribution over predictive distributions. This work focuses on uncertainty for classification and evaluates PNs on the tasks of identifying out-of-distribution (OOD) samples and detecting misclassification on the MNIST and CIFAR-10 datasets, where they are found to outperform previous methods. Experiments on synthetic and MNIST and CIFAR-10 data show that unlike previous non-Bayesian methods PNs are able to distinguish between data and distributional uncertainty.

Most recent work on interpretability of complex machine learning models has focused on estimating a-posteriori explanations for previously trained models around specific predictions. Self-explaining models where interpretability plays a key role already during learning have received much less attention. We propose three desiderata for explanations in general -- explicitness, faithfulness, and stability -- and show that existing methods do not satisfy them.

We consider an inexact variant of the popular Riemannian trust-region algorithm for structured big-data minimization problems. The proposed algorithm approximates the gradient and the Hessian in addition to the solution of a trust-region sub-problem. Addressing large-scale finite-sum problems, we specifically propose sub-sampled algorithms with a fixed bound on sub-sampled Hessian and gradient sizes, where the gradient and Hessian are computed by a random sampling technique. Numerical evaluations demonstrate that the proposed algorithms outperform state-of-the-art Riemannian deterministic and stochastic gradient algorithms across different applications.

Realistic music generation is a challenging task. When building generative models of music that are learnt from data, typically high-level representations such as scores or MIDI are used that abstract away the idiosyncrasies of a particular performance. But these nuances are very important for our perception of musicality and realism, so in this work we embark on modelling music in the raw audio domain. It has been shown that autoregressive models excel at generating raw audio waveforms of speech, but when applied to music, we find them biased towards capturing local signal structure at the expense of modelling long-range correlations. This is problematic because music exhibits structure at many different timescales. In this work, we explore autoregressive discrete autoencoders (ADAs) as a means to enable autoregressive models to capture long-range correlations in waveforms. We find that they allow us to unconditionally generate piano music directly in the raw audio domain, which shows stylistic consistency across tens of seconds.

Model-based reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms can attain excellent sample efficiency, but often lag behind the best model-free algorithms in terms of asymptotic performance. This is especially true with high-capacity parametric function approximators, such as deep networks. In this paper, we study how to bridge this gap, by employing uncertainty-aware dynamics models. We propose a new algorithm called probabilistic ensembles with trajectory sampling (PETS) that combines uncertainty-aware deep network dynamics models with sampling-based uncertainty propagation. Our comparison to state-of-the-art model-based and model-free deep RL algorithms shows that our approach matches the asymptotic performance of model-free algorithms on several challenging benchmark tasks, while requiring significantly fewer samples (e.g. 8 and 125 times fewer samples than Soft Actor Critic and Proximal Policy Optimization respectively on the half-cheetah task).

The study of cross-domain mapping without supervision has recently attracted much attention. Much of the recent progress was enabled by the use of adversarial training as well as cycle constraints.

Early stopping of iterative algorithms is an algorithmic regularization method to avoid over-fitting in estimation and classification. In this paper, we show that early stopping can also be applied to obtain the minimax optimal testing in a general non-parametric setup. Specifically, a Wald-type test statistic is obtained based on an iterated estimate produced by functional gradient descent algorithms in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. A notable contribution is to establish a ``sharp'' stopping rule: when the number of iterations achieves an optimal order, testing optimality is achievable; otherwise, testing optimality becomes impossible. As a by-product, a similar sharpness result is also derived for minimax optimal estimation under early stopping. All obtained results hold for various kernel classes, including Sobolev smoothness classes and Gaussian kernel classes.

We advocate Laplacian K-modes for joint clustering and density mode finding, and propose a concave-convex relaxation of the problem, which yields a parallel algorithm that scales up to large datasets and high dimensions. We optimize a tight bound (auxiliary function) of our relaxation, which, at each iteration, amounts to computing an independent update for each cluster-assignment variable, with guaranteed convergence. Therefore, our bound optimizer can be trivially distributed for large-scale data sets. Furthermore, we show that the density modes can be obtained as byproducts of the assignment variables via simple maximum-value operations whose additional computational cost is linear in the number of data points. Our formulation does not need storing a full affinity matrix and computing its eigenvalue decomposition, neither does it perform expensive projection steps and Lagrangian-dual inner iterates for the simplex constraints of each point. Furthermore, unlike mean-shift, our density-mode estimation does not require inner-loop gradient-ascent iterates. It has a complexity independent of feature-space dimension, yields modes that are valid data points in the input set and is applicable to discrete domains as well as arbitrary kernels. We report comprehensive experiments over various data sets, which show that our algorithm yields very competitive performances in term of optimization quality (i.e., the value of the discrete-variable objective at convergence) and clustering accuracy.

We consider the semi-supervised clustering problem where crowdsourcing provides noisy information about the pairwise comparisons on a small subset of data, i.e., whether a sample pair is in the same cluster. We propose a new approach that includes a deep generative model (DGM) to characterize low-level features of the data, and a statistical relational model for noisy pairwise annotations on its subset. The two parts share the latent variables. To make the model automatically trade-off between its complexity and fitting data, we also develop its fully Bayesian variant. The challenge of inference is addressed by fast (natural-gradient) stochastic variational inference algorithms, where we effectively combine variational message passing for the relational part and amortized learning of the DGM under a unified framework. Empirical results on synthetic and real-world datasets show that our model outperforms previous crowdsourced clustering methods.

Deep learning models often have more parameters than observations, and still perform well. This is sometimes described as a paradox. In this work, we show experimentally that despite their huge number of parameters, deep neural networks can compress the data losslessly even when taking the cost of encoding the parameters into account. Such a compression viewpoint originally motivated the use of variational methods in neural networks. However, we show that these variational methods provide surprisingly poor compression bounds, despite being explicitly built to minimize such bounds. This might explain the relatively poor practical performance of variational methods in deep learning. Better encoding methods, imported from the Minimum Description Length (MDL) toolbox, yield much better compression values on deep networks.