Knowing when a classifier's prediction can be trusted is useful in many applications and critical for safely using AI. While the bulk of the effort in machine learning research has been towards improving classifier performance, understanding when a classifier's predictions should and should not be trusted has received far less attention. The standard approach is to use the classifier's discriminant or confidence score; however, we show there exists an alternative that is more effective in many situations. We propose a new score, called the {\it trust score}, which measures the agreement between the classifier and a modified nearest-neighbor classifier on the testing example. We show empirically that high (low) trust scores produce surprisingly high precision at identifying correctly (incorrectly) classified examples, consistently outperforming the classifier's confidence score as well as many other baselines. Further, under some mild distributional assumptions, we show that if the trust score for an example is high (low), the classifier will likely agree (disagree) with the Bayes-optimal classifier. Our guarantees consist of non-asymptotic rates of statistical consistency under various nonparametric settings and build on recent developments in topological data analysis.

While domain adaptation has been actively researched, most algorithms focus on the single-source-single-target adaptation setting. In this paper we propose new generalization bounds and algorithms under both classification and regression settings for unsupervised multiple source domain adaptation. Our theoretical analysis naturally leads to an efficient learning strategy using adversarial neural networks: we show how to interpret it as learning feature representations that are invariant to the multiple domain shifts while still being discriminative for the learning task. To this end, we propose multisource domain adversarial networks (MDAN) that approach domain adaptation by optimizing task-adaptive generalization bounds. To demonstrate the effectiveness of MDAN, we conduct extensive experiments showing superior adaptation performance on both classification and regression problems: sentiment analysis, digit classification, and vehicle counting.

Error bound conditions (EBC) are properties that characterize the growth of an objective function when a point is moved away from the optimal set. They have recently received increasing attention in the field of optimization for developing optimization algorithms with fast convergence. However, the studies of EBC in statistical learning are hitherto still limited. The main contributions of this paper are two-fold. First, we develop fast and intermediate rates of empirical risk minimization (ERM) under EBC for risk minimization with Lipschitz continuous, and smooth convex random functions. Second, we establish fast and intermediate rates of an efficient stochastic approximation (SA) algorithm for risk minimization with Lipschitz continuous random functions, which requires only one pass of $n$ samples and adapts to EBC. For both approaches, the convergence rates span a full spectrum between $\widetilde O(1/\sqrt{n})$ and $\widetilde O(1/n)$ depending on the power constant in EBC, and could be even faster than $O(1/n)$ in special cases for ERM. Moreover, these convergence rates are automatically adaptive without using any knowledge of EBC. Overall, this work not only strengthens the understanding of ERM for statistical learning but also brings new fast stochastic algorithms for solving a broad range of statistical learning problems.

Generalization has been one of the major challenges for learning dynamics models in model-based reinforcement learning. However, previous work on action-conditioned dynamics prediction focuses on learning the pixel-level motion and thus does not generalize well to novel environments with different object layouts. In this paper, we present a novel object-oriented framework, called object-oriented dynamics predictor (OODP), which decomposes the environment into objects and predicts the dynamics of objects conditioned on both actions and object-to-object relations. It is an end-to-end neural network and can be trained in an unsupervised manner. To enable the generalization ability of dynamics learning, we design a novel CNN-based relation mechanism that is class-specific (rather than object-specific) and exploits the locality principle. Empirical results show that OODP significantly outperforms previous methods in terms of generalization over novel environments with various object layouts. OODP is able to learn from very few environments and accurately predict dynamics in a large number of unseen environments. In addition, OODP learns semantically and visually interpretable dynamics models.

In a number of disciplines, the data (e.g., graphs, manifolds) to be analyzed are non-Euclidean in nature. Geometric deep learning corresponds to techniques that generalize deep neural network models to such non-Euclidean spaces. Several recent papers have shown how convolutional neural networks (CNNs) can be extended to learn with graph-based data. In this work, we study the setting where the data (or measurements) are ordered, longitudinal or temporal in nature and live on a Riemannian manifold -- this setting is common in a variety of problems in statistical machine learning, vision and medical imaging. We show how recurrent statistical recurrent network models can be defined in such spaces. We give an efficient algorithm and conduct a rigorous analysis of its statistical properties. We perform extensive numerical experiments demonstrating competitive performance with state of the art methods but with significantly less number of parameters. We also show applications to a statistical analysis task in brain imaging, a regime where deep neural network models have only been utilized in limited ways.

Kleinberg (2002) stated three axioms that any clustering procedure should satisfy and showed there is no clustering procedure that simultaneously satisfies all three. One of these, called the consistency axiom, requires that when the data is modified in a helpful way, i.e. if points in the same cluster are made more similar and those in different ones made less similar, the algorithm should output the same clustering. To circumvent this impossibility result, research has focused on considering clustering procedures that have a clustering quality measure (or a cost) and showing that a modification of Kleinberg's axioms that takes cost into account lead to feasible clustering procedures. In this work, we take a different approach, based on the observation that the consistency axiom fails to be satisfied when the "correct" number of clusters changes. We modify this axiom by making use of cost functions to determine the correct number of clusters, and require that consistency holds only if the number of clusters remains unchanged. We show that single linkage satisfies the modified axioms, and if the input is well-clusterable, some popular procedures such as k-means also satisfy the axioms, taking a step towards explaining the success of these objective functions for guiding the design of algorithms.

In this paper, we propose a generative multi-column network for image inpainting.

Inferring intent from observed behavior has been studied extensively within the frameworks of Bayesian inverse planning and inverse reinforcement learning. These methods infer a goal or reward function that best explains the actions of the observed agent, typically a human demonstrator. Another agent can use this inferred intent to predict, imitate, or assist the human user. However, a central assumption in inverse reinforcement learning is that the demonstrator is close to optimal. While models of suboptimal behavior exist, they typically assume that suboptimal actions are the result of some type of random noise or a known cognitive bias, like temporal inconsistency. In this paper, we take an alternative approach, and model suboptimal behavior as the result of internal model misspecification: the reason that user actions might deviate from near-optimal actions is that the user has an incorrect set of beliefs about the rules -- the dynamics -- governing how actions affect the environment. Our insight is that while demonstrated actions may be suboptimal in the real world, they may actually be near-optimal with respect to the user's internal model of the dynamics. By estimating these internal beliefs from observed behavior, we arrive at a new method for inferring intent. We demonstrate in simulation and in a user study with 12 participants that this approach enables us to more accurately model human intent, and can be used in a variety of applications, including offering assistance in a shared autonomy framework and inferring human preferences.

We replace the output layer of deep neural nets, typically the softmax function, by a novel interpolating function. And we propose end-to-end training and testing algorithms for this new architecture. Compared to classical neural nets with softmax function as output activation, the surrogate with interpolating function as output activation combines advantages of both deep and manifold learning. The new framework demonstrates the following major advantages: First, it is better applicable to the case with insufficient training data. Second, it significantly improves the generalization accuracy on a wide variety of networks. The algorithm is implemented in PyTorch, and the code is available at https://github.com/

We consider the minimization of submodular functions subject to ordering constraints. We show that this potentially non-convex optimization problem can be cast as a convex optimization problem on a space of uni-dimensional measures, with ordering constraints corresponding to first-order stochastic dominance. We propose new discretization schemes that lead to simple and efficient algorithms based on zero-th, first, or higher order oracles; these algorithms also lead to improvements without isotonic constraints. Finally, our experiments show that non-convex loss functions can be much more robust to outliers for isotonic regression, while still being solvable in polynomial time.