Gaussian processes provide a flexible framework for forecasting, removing noise, and interpreting long temporal datasets. State space modelling (Kalman filtering) enables these non-parametric models to be deployed on long datasets by reducing the complexity to linear in the number of data points. The complexity is still cubic in the state dimension m which is an impediment to practical application. In certain special cases (Gaussian likelihood, regular spacing) the GP posterior will reach a steady posterior state when the data are very long. We leverage this and formulate an inference scheme for GPs with general likelihoods, where inference is based on single-sweep EP (assumed density filtering). The infinite-horizon model tackles the cubic cost in the state dimensionality and reduces the cost in the state dimension m to O(m^2) per data point. The model is extended to online-learning of hyperparameters. We show examples for large finite-length modelling problems, and present how the method runs in real-time on a smartphone on a continuous data stream updated at 100 Hz.

Neural networks have been used prominently in several machine learning and statistics applications. In general, the underlying optimization of neural networks is non-convex which makes analyzing their performance challenging. In this paper, we take another approach to this problem by constraining the network such that the corresponding optimization landscape has good theoretical properties without significantly compromising performance. In particular, for two-layer neural networks we introduce Porcupine Neural Networks (PNNs) whose weight vectors are constrained to lie over a finite set of lines. We show that most local optima of PNN optimizations are global while we have a characterization of regions where bad local optimizers may exist. Moreover, our theoretical and empirical results suggest that an unconstrained neural network can be approximated using a polynomially-large PNN.

Consider a classification problem where we have both labeled and unlabeled data available. We show that for linear classifiers defined by convex margin-based surrogate losses that are decreasing, it is impossible to construct \emph{any} semi-supervised approach that is able to guarantee an improvement over the supervised classifier measured by this surrogate loss on the labeled and unlabeled data. For convex margin-based loss functions that also increase, we demonstrate safe improvements \emph{are} possible.

This paper studies the problem of deriving fast and accurate classification algorithms with uncertainty quantification. Gaussian process classification provides a principled approach, but the corresponding computational burden is hardly sustainable in large-scale problems and devising efficient alternatives is a challenge. In this work, we investigate if and how Gaussian process regression directly applied to classification labels can be used to tackle this question. While in this case training is remarkably faster, predictions need to be calibrated for classification and uncertainty estimation. To this aim, we propose a novel regression approach where the labels are obtained through the interpretation of classification labels as the coefficients of a degenerate Dirichlet distribution. Extensive experimental results show that the proposed approach provides essentially the same accuracy and uncertainty quantification as Gaussian process classification while requiring only a fraction of computational resources.

Embedding complex objects as vectors in low dimensional spaces is a longstanding problem in machine learning. We propose in this work an extension of that approach, which consists in embedding objects as elliptical probability distributions, namely distributions whose densities have elliptical level sets. We endow these measures with the 2-Wasserstein metric, with two important benefits: (i) For such measures, the squared 2-Wasserstein metric has a closed form, equal to a weighted sum of the squared Euclidean distance between means and the squared Bures metric between covariance matrices. The latter is a Riemannian metric between positive semi-definite matrices, which turns out to be Euclidean on a suitable factor representation of such matrices, which is valid on the entire geodesic between these matrices.

Continuous-time Bayesian networks (CTBNs) constitute a general and powerful framework for modeling continuous-time stochastic processes on networks. This makes them particularly attractive for learning the directed structures among interacting entities. However, if the available data is incomplete, one needs to simulate the prohibitively complex CTBN dynamics. Existing approximation techniques, such as sampling and low-order variational methods, either scale unfavorably in system size, or are unsatisfactory in terms of accuracy. Inspired by recent advances in statistical physics, we present a new approximation scheme based on cluster-variational methods that significantly improves upon existing variational approximations. We can analytically marginalize the parameters of the approximate CTBN, as these are of secondary importance for structure learning. This recovers a scalable scheme for direct structure learning from incomplete and noisy time-series data. Our approach outperforms existing methods in terms of scalability.

This paper proposes REFUEL, a reinforcement learning method with two techniques: {\em reward shaping} and {\em feature rebuilding}, to improve the performance of online symptom checking for disease diagnosis. Reward shaping can guide the search of policy towards better directions. Feature rebuilding can guide the agent to learn correlations between features. Together, they can find symptom queries that can yield positive responses from a patient with high probability. Experimental results justify that the two techniques in REFUEL allows the symptom checker to identify the disease more rapidly and accurately.

In order to achieve state-of-the-art performance, modern machine learning techniques require careful data pre-processing and hyperparameter tuning. Moreover, given the ever increasing number of machine learning models being developed, model selection is becoming increasingly important. Automating the selection and tuning of machine learning pipelines, which can include different data pre-processing methods and machine learning models, has long been one of the goals of the machine learning community. In this paper, we propose to solve this meta-learning task by combining ideas from collaborative filtering and Bayesian optimization. Specifically, we use a probabilistic matrix factorization model to transfer knowledge across experiments performed in hundreds of different datasets and use an acquisition function to guide the exploration of the space of possible ML pipelines. In our experiments, we show that our approach quickly identifies high-performing pipelines across a wide range of datasets, significantly outperforming the current state-of-the-art.

In this paper, we provide a theoretical understanding of word embedding and its dimensionality. Motivated by the unitary-invariance of word embedding, we propose the Pairwise Inner Product (PIP) loss, a novel metric on the dissimilarity between word embeddings. Using techniques from matrix perturbation theory, we reveal a fundamental bias-variance trade-off in dimensionality selection for word embeddings. This bias-variance trade-off sheds light on many empirical observations which were previously unexplained, for example the existence of an optimal dimensionality. Moreover, new insights and discoveries, like when and how word embeddings are robust to over-fitting, are revealed. By optimizing over the bias-variance trade-off of the PIP loss, we can explicitly answer the open question of dimensionality selection for word embedding.

Bayesian learning is built on an assumption that the model space contains a true reflection of the data generating mechanism. This assumption is problematic, particularly in complex data environments. Here we present a Bayesian nonparametric approach to learning that makes use of statistical models, but does not assume that the model is true. Our approach has provably better properties than using a parametric model and admits a Monte Carlo sampling scheme that can afford massive scalability on modern computer architectures. The model-based aspect of learning is particularly attractive for regularizing nonparametric inference when the sample size is small, and also for correcting approximate approaches such as variational Bayes (VB). We demonstrate the approach on a number of examples including VB classifiers and Bayesian random forests.