Adaptive schemes, where tasks are assigned based on the data collected thus far, are widely used in practical crowdsourcing systems to efficiently allocate the budget. However, existing theoretical analyses of crowdsourcing systems suggest that the gain of adaptive task assignments is minimal. To bridge this gap, we investigate this question under a strictly more general probabilistic model, which has been recently introduced to model practical crowdsourcing data sets. Under this generalized Dawid-Skene model, we characterize the fundamental trade-off between budget and accuracy, and introduce a novel adaptive scheme that matches this fundamental limit. We further quantify the gain of adaptivity, by comparing the trade-off with the one for non-adaptive schemes, and confirm that the gain is significant and can be made arbitrarily large depending on the distribution of the difficulty level of the tasks at hand.

We study the problem of synthesizing a number of likely future frames from a single input image. In contrast to traditional methods, which have tackled this problem in a deterministic or non-parametric way, we propose a novel approach which models future frames in a probabilistic manner. Our proposed method is therefore able to synthesize multiple possible next frames using the same model. Solving this challenging problem involves low-and high-level image and motion understanding for successful image synthesis. Here, we propose a novel network structure, namely a Cross Convolutional Network, that encodes images as feature maps and motion information as convolutional kernels to aid in synthesizing future frames. In experiments, our model performs well on both synthetic data, such as 2D shapes and animated game sprites, as well as on real-wold video data. We show that our model can also be applied to tasks such as visual analogy-making, and present analysis of the learned network representations.

We present a scalable and robust Bayesian method for demand forecasting in the context of a large e-commerce platform, paying special attention to intermittent and bursty target statistics. Inference is approximated by the Newton-Raphson algorithm, reduced to linear-time Kalman smoothing, which allows us to operate on several orders of magnitude larger problems than previous related work. In a study on large real-world sales datasets, our method outperforms competing approaches on fast and medium moving items.

Hybrid methods that utilize both content and rating information are commonly used in many recommender systems. However, most of them use either handcrafted features or the bag-of-words representation as a surrogate for the content information but they are neither effective nor natural enough. To address this problem, we develop a collaborative recurrent autoencoder (CRAE) which is a denoising recurrent autoencoder (DRAE) that models the generation of content sequences in the collaborative filtering (CF) setting.

Maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) has been successfully applied to learn deep generative models for characterizing a joint distribution of variables via kernel mean embedding. In this paper, we present conditional generative moment-matching networks (CGMMN), which learn a conditional distribution given some input variables based on a conditional maximum mean discrepancy (CMMD) criterion. The learning is performed by stochastic gradient descent with the gradient calculated by back-propagation. We evaluate CGMMN on a wide range of tasks, including predictive modeling, contextual generation, and Bayesian dark knowledge, which distills knowledge from a Bayesian model by learning a relatively small CGMMN student network. Our results demonstrate competitive performance in all the tasks.

Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) is a very popular model for topic modeling as well as many other problems with latent groups. It is both simple and effective. When the number of topics (or latent groups) is unknown, the Hierarchical Dirichlet Process (HDP) provides an elegant non-parametric extension; however, it is a complex model and it is difficult to incorporate prior knowledge since the distribution over topics is implicit. We propose two new models that extend LDA in a simple and intuitive fashion by directly expressing a distribution over the number of topics. We also propose a new online Bayesian moment matching technique to learn the parameters and the number of topics of those models based on streaming data. The approach achieves higher log-likelihood than batch and online HDP with fixed hyperparameters on several corpora.

We present a framework for efficient perceptual inference that explicitly reasons about the segmentation of its inputs and features. Rather than being trained for any specific segmentation, our framework learns the grouping process in an unsupervised manner or alongside any supervised task. We enable a neural network to group the representations of different objects in an iterative manner through a differentiable mechanism. We achieve very fast convergence by allowing the system to amortize the joint iterative inference of the groupings and their representations. In contrast to many other recently proposed methods for addressing multi-object scenes, our system does not assume the inputs to be images and can therefore directly handle other modalities. We evaluate our method on multi-digit classification of very cluttered images that require texture segmentation. Remarkably our method achieves improved classification performance over convolutional networks despite being fully connected, by making use of the grouping mechanism. Furthermore, we observe that our system greatly improves upon the semi-supervised result of a baseline Ladder network on our dataset. These results are evidence that grouping is a powerful tool that can help to improve sample efficiency.

The multivariate normal density is a monotonic function of the distance to the mean, and its ellipsoidal shape is due to the underlying Euclidean metric. We suggest to replace this metric with a locally adaptive, smoothly changing (Riemannian) metric that favors regions of high local density. The resulting locally adaptive normal distribution (LAND) is a generalization of the normal distribution to the manifold setting, where data is assumed to lie near a potentially low-dimensional manifold embedded in R^D. The LAND is parametric, depending only on a mean and a covariance, and is the maximum entropy distribution under the given metric. The underlying metric is, however, non-parametric. We develop a maximum likelihood algorithm to infer the distribution parameters that relies on a combination of gradient descent and Monte Carlo integration. We further extend the LAND to mixture models, and provide the corresponding EM algorithm. We demonstrate the efficiency of the LAND to fit non-trivial probability distributions over both synthetic data, and EEG measurements of human sleep.

Models for collecting and aggregating categorical data on crowdsourcing platforms typically fall into two broad categories: those assuming agents honest and consistent but with heterogeneous error rates, and those assuming agents strategic and seek to maximize their expected reward. The former often leads to tractable aggregation of elicited data, while the latter usually focuses on optimal elicitation and does not consider aggregation. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian model, wherein agents have differing quality of information, but also respond to incentives. Our model generalizes both categories and enables the joint exploration of optimal elicitation and aggregation. This model enables our exploration, both analytically and experimentally, of optimal aggregation of categorical data and optimal multiple-choice interface design.

In quantum computers, the information is contained in qubits that can work through vast numbers of different outcomes, which is not possible with classical computers. In quantum computers, the information is contained in qubits that can work through vast numbers of different outcomes, which is not possible with classical computers. The UK will not let quantum computing talent slip through its fingers and must learn lessons from US dominance of the AI race, the technology secretary has said, as the government announced a £1bn quantum funding pledge. Liz Kendall said the government hoped to retain homegrown quantum startups, engineers and researchers rather than lose them to competing countries, with the US stealing a march on its western rivals in AI. "I do look at what's happened on AI," said Kendall. "I do think we need to learn the lessons and make sure we give our brilliant scientists, spinouts and startups the ability to stay here and make it happen. And that requires a government that is bold and ambitious and confident in these technologies of the future."