The {\L}ojasiewicz inequality shows that H\olderian error bounds on the minimum of convex optimization problems hold almost generically. Here, we clarify results of \citet{Nemi85} who show that H\olderian error bounds directly controls the performance of restart schemes. The constants quantifying error bounds are of course unobservable, but we show that optimal restart strategies are robust, and searching for the best scheme only increases the complexity by a logarithmic factor compared to the optimal bound. Overall then, restart schemes generically accelerate accelerated methods.

This work constructs a hypothesis test for detecting whether an data-generating function $h: \real^p \rightarrow \real$ belongs to a specific reproducing kernel Hilbert space $\mathcal{H}_0$, where the structure of $\mathcal{H}_0$ is only partially known. Utilizing the theory of reproducing kernels, we reduce this hypothesis to a simple one-sided score test for a scalar parameter, develop a testing procedure that is robust against the mis-specification of kernel functions, and also propose an ensemble-based estimator for the null model to guarantee test performance in small samples. To demonstrate the utility of the proposed method, we apply our test to the problem of detecting nonlinear interaction between groups of continuous features. We evaluate the finite-sample performance of our test under different data-generating functions and estimation strategies for the null model. Our results revealed interesting connection between notions in machine learning (model underfit/overfit) and those in statistical inference (i.e. Type I error/power of hypothesis test), and also highlighted unexpected consequences of common model estimating strategies (e.g.

We present a new model, Predictive State Recurrent Neural Networks (PSRNNs), for filtering and prediction in dynamical systems. PSRNNs draw on insights from both Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) and Predictive State Representations (PSRs), and inherit advantages from both types of models. Like many successful RNN architectures, PSRNNs use (potentially deeply composed) bilinear transfer functions to combine information from multiple sources. We show that such bilinear functions arise naturally from state updates in Bayes filters like PSRs, in which observations can be viewed as gating belief states. We also show that PSRNNs can be learned effectively by combining Backpropogation Through Time (BPTT) with an initialization derived from a statistically consistent learning algorithm for PSRs called two-stage regression (2SR). Finally, we show that PSRNNs can be factorized using tensor decomposition, reducing model size and suggesting interesting connections to existing multiplicative architectures such as LSTMs and GRUs. We apply PSRNNs to 4 datasets, and show that we outperform several popular alternative approaches to modeling dynamical systems in all cases.

A differentiable estimation of the distance between two distributions based on samples is important for many deep learning tasks. One such estimation is maximum mean discrepancy (MMD). However, MMD suffers from its sensitive kernel bandwidth hyper-parameter, weak gradients, and large mini-batch size when used as a training objective. In this paper, we propose population matching discrepancy (PMD) for estimating the distribution distance based on samples, as well as an algorithm to learn the parameters of the distributions using PMD as an objective. PMD is defined as the minimum weight matching of sample populations from each distribution, and we prove that PMD is a strongly consistent estimator of the first Wasserstein metric. We apply PMD to two deep learning tasks, domain adaptation and generative modeling. Empirical results demonstrate that PMD overcomes the aforementioned drawbacks of MMD, and outperforms MMD on both tasks in terms of the performance as well as the convergence speed.

Neural Machine Translation (NMT) has become a popular technology in recent years, and beam search is its de facto decoding method due to the shrunk search space and reduced computational complexity. However, since it only searches for local optima at each time step through one-step forward looking, it usually cannot output the best target sentence. Inspired by the success and methodology of AlphaGo, in this paper we propose using a prediction network to improve beam search, which takes the source sentence $x$, the currently available decoding output $y_1,\cdots, y_{t-1}$ and a candidate word $w$ at step $t$ as inputs and predicts the long-term value (e.g., BLEU score) of the partial target sentence if it is completed by the NMT model. Following the practice in reinforcement learning, we call this prediction network \emph{value network}. Specifically, we propose a recurrent structure for the value network, and train its parameters from bilingual data. During the test time, when choosing a word $w$ for decoding, we consider both its conditional probability given by the NMT model and its long-term value predicted by the value network. Experiments show that such an approach can significantly improve the translation accuracy on several translation tasks.

Humanity faces numerous problems of common-pool resource appropriation. This class of multi-agent social dilemma includes the problems of ensuring sustainable use of fresh water, common fisheries, grazing pastures, and irrigation systems. Abstract models of common-pool resource appropriation based on non-cooperative game theory predict that self-interested agents will generally fail to find socially positive equilibria---a phenomenon called the tragedy of the commons. However, in reality, human societies are sometimes able to discover and implement stable cooperative solutions. Decades of behavioral game theory research have sought to uncover aspects of human behavior that make this possible.

The additive model is one of the most popularly used models for high dimensional nonparametric regression analysis. However, its main drawback is that it neglects possible interactions between predictor variables. In this paper, we reexamine the group additive model proposed in the literature, and rigorously define the intrinsic group additive structure for the relationship between the response variable $Y$ and the predictor vector $\vect{X}$, and further develop an effective structure-penalized kernel method for simultaneous identification of the intrinsic group additive structure and nonparametric function estimation. The method utilizes a novel complexity measure we derive for group additive structures. We show that the proposed method is consistent in identifying the intrinsic group additive structure. Simulation study and real data applications demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method as a general tool for high dimensional nonparametric regression.

Decision-makers are faced with the challenge of estimating what is likely to happen when they take an action. For instance, if I choose not to treat this patient, are they likely to die? Practitioners commonly use supervised learning algorithms to fit predictive models that help decision-makers reason about likely future outcomes, but we show that this approach is unreliable, and sometimes even dangerous. The key issue is that supervised learning algorithms are highly sensitive to the policy used to choose actions in the training data, which causes the model to capture relationships that do not generalize. We propose using a different learning objective that predicts counterfactuals instead of predicting outcomes under an existing action policy as in supervised learning. To support decision-making in temporal settings, we introduce the Counterfactual Gaussian Process (CGP) to predict the counterfactual future progression of continuous-time trajectories under sequences of future actions. We demonstrate the benefits of the CGP on two important decision-support tasks: risk prediction and "what if?" reasoning for individualized treatment planning.

The input-output mappings learned by state-of-the-art neural networks are significantly discontinuous. It is possible to cause a neural network used for image recognition to misclassify its input by applying very specific, hardly perceptible perturbations to the input, called adversarial perturbations. Many hypotheses have been proposed to explain the existence of these peculiar samples as well as several methods to mitigate them. A proven explanation remains elusive, however. In this work, we take steps towards a formal characterization of adversarial perturbations by deriving lower bounds on the magnitudes of perturbations necessary to change the classification of neural networks. The bounds are experimentally verified on the MNIST and CIFAR-10 data sets.

We consider the problem of learning causal structures with latent variables using interventions. Our objective is not only to learn the causal graph between the observed variables, but to locate unobserved variables that could confound the relationship between observables. Our approach is stage-wise: We first learn the observable graph, i.e., the induced graph between observable variables. Next we learn the existence and location of the latent variables given the observable graph. We propose an efficient randomized algorithm that can learn the observable graph using O(d\log^2 n) interventions where d is the degree of the graph. We further propose an efficient deterministic variant which uses O(log n + l) interventions, where l is the longest directed path in the graph. Next, we propose an algorithm that uses only O(d^2 log n) interventions that can learn the latents between both non-adjacent and adjacent variables. While a naive baseline approach would require O(n^2) interventions, our combined algorithm can learn the causal graph with latents using O(d log^2 n + d^2 log (n)) interventions.