Prediction-powered inference (PPI) is a rapidly growing framework for combining machine learning predictions with a small set of gold-standard labels to conduct valid statistical inference. In this article, I argue that the core estimators underlying PPI are equivalent to well-established estimators from the survey sampling literature dating back to the 1970s. Specifically, the PPI estimator for a population mean is algebraically equivalent to the difference estimator of Cassel et al. (1976), and PPI plus corresponds to the generalized regression (GREG) estimator of Sarndal et al. (2003). Recognizing this equivalence, I consider what part of PPI is inherited from a long-standing literature in statistics, what part is genuinely new, and where inferential claims require care. After introducing the two frameworks and establishing their equivalence, I break down where PPI diverges from model-assisted estimation, including differences in the mode of inference, the role of the unlabeled data pool, and the consequences of differential prediction error for subgroup estimands such as the average treatment effect. I then identify what each framework offers the other: PPI researchers can draw on the survey sampling literature's well-developed theory of calibration, optimal allocation, and design-based diagnostics, while survey sampling researchers can benefit from PPI's extensions to non-standard estimands and its accessible software ecosystem. The article closes with a call for integration between these two communities, motivated by the growing use of large language models as measurement instruments in applied research.

This paper tackles the challenge of active perception for robotic grasp detection in cluttered environments. Incomplete 3D geometry information can negatively affect the performance of learning-based grasp detection methods, and scanning the scene from multiple views introduces significant time costs. To achieve reliable grasping performance with efficient camera movement, we propose an active grasp detection framework based on the Neural Graspness Field (NGF), which models the scene incrementally and facilitates next-best-view planning.

Global flash floods, exacerbated by climate change, pose severe threats to humanlife, infrastructure, and the environment. Recent catastrophic events in Pakistan andNew Zealand underscore the urgent need for precise flood mapping to guide restoration efforts, understand vulnerabilities, and prepare for future occurrences. While Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) remote sensing offers day-and-night, all-weatherimaging capabilities, its application in deep learning for flood segmentation is limited by the lack of large annotated datasets. To address this, we introduce KuroSiwo, a manually annotated multi-temporal dataset, spanning 43 flood events globally. Our dataset maps more than 338 billion $m^2$ of land, with 33 billion designatedas either flooded areas or permanent water bodies. Kuro Siwo includes a highlyprocessed product optimized for flash flood mapping based on SAR Ground RangeDetected, and a primal SAR Single Look Complex product with minimal preprocessing, designed to promote research on the exploitation of both the phase and amplitude information and to offer maximum flexibility for downstream task preprocessing. To leverage advances in large scale self-supervised pretraining methodsfor remote sensing data, we augment Kuro Siwo with a large unlabeled set of SARsamples. Finally, we provide an extensive benchmark, namely BlackBench, offering strong baselines for a diverse set of flood events globally.

An image editing model should be able to perform diverse edits, ranging from object replacement, changing attributes or style, to performing actions or movement, which require many forms of reasoning. Current instruction-guided editing models have significant shortcomings with action and reasoning-centric edits.Object, attribute or stylistic changes can be learned from visually static datasets. On the other hand, high-quality data for action and reasoning-centric edits is scarce and has to come from entirely different sources that cover e.g.

Copulas are a powerful tool for modeling multivariate distributions as they allow to separately estimate the univariate marginal distributions and the joint dependency structure. However, known parametric copulas offer limited flexibility especially in high dimensions, while commonly used non-parametric methods suffer from the curse of dimensionality. A popular remedy is to construct a tree-based hierarchy of conditional bivariate copulas.In this paper, we propose a flexible, yet conceptually simple alternative based on implicit generative neural networks.The key challenge is to ensure marginal uniformity of the estimated copula distribution.We achieve this by learning a multivariate latent distribution with unspecified marginals but the desired dependency structure.By applying the probability integral transform, we can then obtain samples from the high-dimensional copula distribution without relying on parametric assumptions or the need to find a suitable tree structure.Experiments on synthetic and real data from finance, physics, and image generation demonstrate the performance of this approach.

We study a setting where agents use no-regret learning algorithms to participate in repeated auctions. Recently, Kolumbus and Nisan [2022a] showed, rather surprisingly, that when bidders participate in second-price auctions using no-regret bidding algorithms, no matter how large the number of interactions $T$ is, the runner-up bidder may not converge to bidding truthfully. Our first result shows that this holds forall deterministictruthful auctions. We also show that the ratio of the learning rates of different bidders can qualitatively affect the convergence of the bidders. Next, we consider the problem of revenue maximization in this environment. In the setting with fully rational bidders, the seminal result of Myerson [1981] showed that revenue can be maximized by using a second-price auction with reserves.

Continual learning has primarily focused on the issue of catastrophic forgetting and the associated stability-plasticity tradeoffs. However, little attention has been paid to the efficacy of continually learned representations, as representations are learned alongside classifiers throughout the learning process. Our primary contribution is empirically demonstrating that existing online continually trained deep networks produce inferior representations compared to a simple pre-defined random transforms. Our approach embeds raw pixels using a fixed random transform, approximating an RBF-Kernel initialized before any data is seen. We then train a simple linear classifier on top without storing any exemplars, processing one sample at a time in an online continual learning setting. This method, called RanDumb, significantly outperforms state-of-the-art continually learned representations across all standard online continual learning benchmarks. Our study reveals the significant limitations of representation learning, particularly in low-exemplar and online continual learning scenarios. Extending our investigation to popular exemplar-free scenarios with pretrained models, we find that training only a linear classifier on top of pretrained representations surpasses most continual fine-tuning and prompt-tuning strategies. Overall, our investigation challenges the prevailing assumptions about effective representation learning in the online continual learning.

As a heuristic for improving test accuracy in classification, the flooding method proposed by Ishida et al. (2020) sets a threshold for the average surrogate loss at training time; above the threshold, gradient descent is run as usual, but below the threshold, a switch to gradient is made. While setting the threshold is non-trivial and is usually done with validation data, this simple technique has proved remarkably effective in terms of accuracy. On the other hand, what if we are also interested in other metrics such as model complexity or average surrogate loss at test time? As an attempt to achieve better overall performance with less fine-tuning, we propose a softened, pointwise mechanism called SoftAD (soft ascent-descent) that downweights points on the borderline, limits the effects of outliers, and retains the ascent-descent effect of flooding, with no additional computational overhead. We contrast formal stationarity guarantees with those for flooding, and empirically demonstrate how SoftAD can realize classification accuracy competitive with flooding (and the more expensive alternative SAM) while enjoying a much smaller loss generalization gap and model norm.

This work focuses on the active learning in video captioning. In particular, we propose to address the learnability problem in active learning, which has been brought up by collective outliers in video captioning and neglected in the literature. To start with, we conduct a comprehensive study of collective outliers, exploring their hard-to-learn property and concluding that ground truth inconsistency is one of the main causes. Motivated by this, we design a novel active learning algorithm that takes three complementary aspects, namely learnability, diversity, and uncertainty, into account. Ideally, learnability is reflected by ground truth consistency. Under the active learning scenario where ground truths are not available until human involvement, we measure the consistency on estimated ground truths, where predictions from off-the-shelf models are utilized as approximations to ground truths. These predictions are further used to estimate sample frequency and reliability, evincing the diversity and uncertainty respectively. With the help of our novel caption-wise active learning protocol, our algorithm is capable of leveraging knowledge from humans in a more effective yet intellectual manner. Results on publicly available video captioning datasets with diverse video captioning models demonstrate that our algorithm outperforms SOTA active learning methods by a large margin, e.g.

Gradient-variation online learning aims to achieve regret guarantees that scale with variations in the gradients of online functions, which is crucial for attaining fast convergence in games and robustness in stochastic optimization, hence receiving increased attention. Existing results often require the smoothness condition by imposing a fixed bound on gradient Lipschitzness, which may be unrealistic in practice. Recent efforts in neural network optimization suggest a generalized smoothness condition, allowing smoothness to correlate with gradient norms. In this paper, we systematically study gradient-variation online learning under generalized smoothness. We extend the classic optimistic mirror descent algorithm to derive gradient-variation regret by analyzing stability over the optimization trajectory and exploiting smoothness locally. Then, we explore universal online learning, designing a single algorithm with the optimal gradient-variation regrets for convex and strongly convex functions simultaneously, without requiring prior knowledge of curvature. This algorithm adopts a two-layer structure with a meta-algorithm running over a group of base-learners. To ensure favorable guarantees, we design a new Lipschitz-adaptive meta-algorithm, capable of handling potentially unbounded gradients while ensuring a second-order bound to effectively ensemble the base-learners. Finally, we provide the applications for fast-rate convergence in games and stochastic extended adversarial optimization.