We address the problem of optimizing over functions defined on node subsets in a graph. The optimization of such functions is often a non-trivial task given their combinatorial, black-box and expensive-to-evaluate nature. Although various algorithms have been introduced in the literature, most are either task-specific or computationally inefficient and only utilize information about the graph structure without considering the characteristics of the function. To address these limitations, we utilize Bayesian Optimization (BO), a sample-efficient black-box solver, and propose a novel framework for combinatorial optimization on graphs. More specifically, we map each $k$-node subset in the original graph to a node in a new combinatorial graph and adopt a local modeling approach to efficiently traverse the latter graph by progressively sampling its subgraphs using a recursive algorithm. Extensive experiments under both synthetic and real-world setups demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed BO framework on various types of graphs and optimization tasks, where its behavior is analyzed in detail with ablation studies.

Data point selection (DPS) is becoming a critical topic in deep learning due to the ease of acquiring uncurated training data compared to the difficulty of obtaining curated or processed data. Existing approaches to DPS are predominantly based on a bi-level optimisation (BLO) formulation, which is demanding in terms of memory and computation, and exhibits some theoretical defects regarding minibatches.Thus, we propose a novel Bayesian approach to DPS. We view the DPS problem as posterior inference in a novel Bayesian model where the posterior distributions of the instance-wise weights and the main neural network parameters are inferred under a reasonable prior and likelihood model.We employ stochastic gradient Langevin MCMC sampling to learn the main network and instance-wise weights jointly, ensuring convergence even with minibatches. Our update equation is comparable to the widely used SGD and much more efficient than existing BLO-based methods. Through controlled experiments in both the vision and language domains, we present the proof-of-concept. Additionally, we demonstrate that our method scales effectively to large language models and facilitates automated per-task optimization for instruction fine-tuning datasets.

I witnessed this scene in the Masa Mara park where two young lions were playing with their mother, they were rolling around with her until one of them found himself in a rather uncomfortable and incongruous situation. Breakthroughs, discoveries, and DIY tips sent six days a week. Accidentally running face-first into your mom's butt is funny, no matter your species. The Nikon Comedy Wildlife Awards opened for entries this week and to hype up the 2026 competition, the top wildlife photography competition for not-so-serious animals has released outtakes from last year's contest. We get a caiman with butterfly accessories, a friendly damselfly, and two baboons caught in a compromising position.

Maximum entropy reinforcement learning motivates agents to explore states and actions to maximize the entropy of some distribution, typically by providing additional intrinsic rewards proportional to that entropy function. In this paper, we study intrinsic rewards proportional to the entropy of the discounted distribution of state-action features visited during future time steps. This approach is motivated by two results. First, we show that the expected sum of these intrinsic rewards is a lower bound on the entropy of the discounted distribution of state-action features visited in trajectories starting from the initial states, which we relate to an alternative maximum entropy objective. Second, we show that the distribution used in the intrinsic reward definition is the fixed point of a contraction operator and can therefore be estimated off-policy. Experiments highlight that the new objective leads to improved visitation of features within individual trajectories, in exchange for slightly reduced visitation of features in expectation over different trajectories, as suggested by the lower bound. It also leads to improved convergence speed for learning exploration-only agents. Control performance remains similar across most methods on the considered benchmarks.

Deep learning models have become the dominant approach for multivariate time series anomaly detection (MTSAD), often reporting substantial performance improvements over classical statistical methods. However, these gains are frequently evaluated under heterogeneous thresholding strategies and evaluation protocols, making fair comparisons difficult. This work revisits OmniAnomaly, a widely used stochastic recurrent model for MTSAD, and systematically compares it with a simple linear baseline based on Principal Component Analysis (PCA) on the Server Machine Dataset (SMD). Both methods are evaluated under identical thresholding and evaluation procedures, with experiments repeated across 100 runs for each of the 28 machines in the dataset. Performance is evaluated using Precision, Recall and F1-score at point-level, with and without point-adjustment, and under different aggregation strategies across machines and runs, with the corresponding standard deviations also reported. The results show large variability across machines and show that PCA can achieve performance comparable to OmniAnomaly, and even outperform it when point-adjustment is not applied. These findings question the added value of more complex architectures under current benchmarking practices and highlight the critical role of evaluation methodology in MTSAD research.

Standard decoding strategies for text generation, including top-k, nucleus sampling, and contrastive search, select tokens based on likelihood, restricting selection to high-probability regions. Human language production operates differently: tokens are chosen for communicative appropriateness rather than statistical frequency. This mismatch creates a truncation blind spot: contextually appropriate but statistically rare tokens remain accessible to humans yet unreachable by likelihood-based decoding. We hypothesize this contributes to the detectability of machine-generated text. Analyzing over 1.8 million texts across eight language models, five decoding strategies, and 53 hyperparameter configurations, we find that 8-18% of human-selected tokens fall outside typical truncation boundaries. Simple classifiers trained on predictability and lexical diversity achieve remarkable detection rates. Crucially, neither model scale nor architecture correlates strongly with detectability; truncation parameters account for most variance. Configurations achieving low detectability often produce incoherent text, indicating that evading detection and producing natural text are distinct objectives. These findings suggest detectability is enhanced by likelihood-based token selection, not merely a matter of model capability.

When working with real-world insurance data, practitioners often encounter challenges during the data preparation stage that can undermine the statistical validity and reliability of downstream modeling. This study illustrates that conventional data preparation procedures such as random train-test partitioning, often yield unreliable and unstable results when confronted with highly imbalanced insurance loss data. To mitigate these limitations, we propose a novel data preparation framework leveraging two recent statistical advancements: support points for representative data splitting to ensure distributional consistency across partitions, and the Chatterjee correlation coefficient for initial, non-parametric feature screening to capture feature relevance and dependence structure. We further integrate these theoretical advances into a unified, efficient framework that also incorporates missing-data handling, and embed this framework within our custom InsurAutoML pipeline. The performance of the proposed approach is evaluated using both simulated datasets and datasets often cited in the academic literature. Our findings definitively demonstrate that incorporating statistically rigorous data preparation methods not only significantly enhances model robustness and interpretability but also substantially reduces computational resource requirements across diverse insurance loss modeling tasks. This work provides a crucial methodological upgrade for achieving reliable results in high stakes insurance applications.

Bayesian methods lie at the heart of modern data science and provide a powerful scaffolding for estimation in data-constrained settings and principled quantification and propagation of uncertainty. Yet in many real-world use cases where these methods are deployed, there is a natural need to preserve the privacy of the individuals whose data is being scrutinized. While a number of works have attempted to approach the problem of differentially private Bayesian estimation through either reasoning about the inherent privacy of the posterior distribution or privatizing off-the-shelf Bayesian methods, these works generally do not come with rigorous utility guarantees beyond low-dimensional settings. In fact, even for the prototypical tasks of Gaussian mean estimation and linear regression, it was unknown how close one could get to the Bayes-optimal error with a private algorithm, even in the simplest case where the unknown parameter comes from a Gaussian prior. In this work, we give the first efficient algorithms for both of these problems that achieve mean-squared error $(1+o(1))\mathrm{OPT}$ and additionally show that both tasks exhibit an intriguing computational-statistical gap. For Bayesian mean estimation, we prove that the excess risk achieved by our method is optimal among all efficient algorithms within the low-degree framework, yet is provably worse than what is achievable by an exponential-time algorithm. For linear regression, we prove a qualitatively similar lower bound. Our algorithms draw upon the privacy-to-robustness framework of arXiv:2212.05015, but with the curious twist that to achieve private Bayes-optimal estimation, we need to design sum-of-squares-based robust estimators for inherently non-robust objects like the empirical mean and OLS estimator. Along the way we also add to the sum-of-squares toolkit a new kind of constraint based on short-flat decompositions.

The distance from calibration, introduced by Błasiok, Gopalan, Hu, and Nakkiran (STOC 2023), has recently emerged as a central measure of miscalibration for probabilistic predictors. We study the fundamental problems of computing and estimating this quantity, given either an exact description of the data distribution or only sample access to it. We give an efficient algorithm that exactly computes the calibration distance when the distribution has a uniform marginal and noiseless labels, which improves the $O(1/\sqrt{|\mathcal{X}|})$ additive approximation of Qiao and Zheng (COLT 2024) for this special case. Perhaps surprisingly, the problem becomes $\mathsf{NP}$-hard when either of the two assumptions is removed. We extend our algorithm to a polynomial-time approximation scheme for the general case. For the estimation problem, we show that $Θ(1/ε^3)$ samples are sufficient and necessary for the empirical calibration distance to be upper bounded by the true distance plus $ε$. In contrast, a polynomial dependence on the domain size -- incurred by the learning-based baseline -- is unavoidable for two-sided estimation. Our positive results are based on simple sparsifications of both the distribution and the target predictor, which significantly reduce the search space for computation and lead to stronger concentration for the estimation problem. To prove the hardness results, we introduce new techniques for certifying lower bounds on the calibration distance -- a problem that is hard in general due to its $\textsf{co-NP}$-completeness.

We study contextual bandits with finitely many actions in which the reward of each arm follows a single-index model with an arm-specific index parameter and an unknown nonparametric link function. We consider a regime in which arms correspond to stable decision options and covariates evolve adaptively under the bandit policy. This setting creates significant statistical challenges: the sampling distribution depends on the allocation rule, observations are dependent over time, and inverse-propensity weighting induces variance inflation. We propose a kernelized $\varepsilon$-greedy algorithm that combines Stein-based estimation of the index parameters with inverse-propensity-weighted kernel ridge regression for the reward functions. This approach enables flexible semiparametric learning while retaining interpretability. Our analysis develops new tools for inference with adaptively collected data. We establish asymptotic normality for the single-index estimator under adaptive sampling, yielding valid confidence regions, and derive a directional functional central limit theorem for the RKHS estimator, which provides asymptotically valid pointwise confidence intervals. The analysis relies on concentration bounds for inverse-weighted Gram matrices together with martingale central limit theorems. We further obtain finite-time regret guarantees, including $\tilde{O}(\sqrt{T})$ rates under common-link Lipschitz conditions, showing that semiparametric structure can be exploited without sacrificing statistical efficiency. These results provide a unified framework for simultaneous learning and inference in single-index contextual bandits.