Accurate prediction of climate in the subseasonal-to-seasonal scale is crucial for disaster preparedness and robust decision making amidst climate change. Yet, forecasting beyond the weather timescale is challenging because it deals with problems other than initial condition, including boundary interaction, butterfly effect, and our inherent lack of physical understanding. At present, existing benchmarks tend to have shorter forecasting range of up-to 15 days, do not include a wide range of operational baselines, and lack physics-based constraints for explainability. Thus, we propose ChaosBench, a challenging benchmark to extend the predictability range of data-driven weather emulators to S2S timescale. First, ChaosBench is comprised of variables beyond the typical surface-atmospheric ERA5 to also include ocean, ice, and land reanalysis products that span over 45 years to allow for full Earth system emulation that respects boundary conditions. We also propose physics-based, in addition to deterministic and probabilistic metrics, to ensure a physically-consistent ensemble that accounts for butterfly effect. Furthermore, we evaluate on a diverse set of physics-based forecasts from four national weather agencies as baselines to our data-driven counterpart such as ViT/ClimaX, PanguWeather, GraphCast, and FourCastNetV2. Overall, we find methods originally developed for weather-scale applications fail on S2S task: their performance simply collapse to an unskilled climatology. Nonetheless, we outline and demonstrate several strategies that can extend the predictability range of existing weather emulators, including the use of ensembles, robust control of error propagation, and the use of physics-informed models.

Federated Learning (FL) is a distributed machine learning framework that trains accurate global models while preserving clients' privacy-sensitive data. However, most FL approaches assume that clients possess labeled data, which is often not the case in practice. Federated Semi-Supervised Learning (FSSL) addresses this label deficiency problem, targeting situations where only the server has a small amount of labeled data while clients do not. However, a significant performance gap exists between Centralized Semi-Supervised Learning (SSL) and FSSL. This gap arises from confirmation bias, which is more pronounced in FSSL due to multiple local training epochs and the separation of labeled and unlabeled data. We propose $(FL)^2$, a robust training method for unlabeled clients using sharpness-aware consistency regularization. We show that regularizing the original pseudo-labeling loss is suboptimal, and hence we carefully select unlabeled samples for regularization. We further introduce client-specific adaptive thresholding and learning status-aware aggregation to adjust the training process based on the learning progress of each client. Our experiments on three benchmark datasets demonstrate that our approach significantly improves performance and bridges the gap with SSL, particularly in scenarios with scarce labeled data.

Predicting potential outcomes of interventions from observational data is crucial for decision-making in medicine, but the task is challenging due to the fundamental problem of causal inference. Existing methods are largely limited to point estimates of potential outcomes with no uncertain quantification; thus, the full information about the distributions of potential outcomes is typically ignored. In this paper, we propose a novel causal diffusion model called DiffPO, which is carefully designed for reliable inferences in medicine by learning the distribution of potential outcomes. In our DiffPO, we leverage a tailored conditional denoising diffusion model to learn complex distributions, where we address the selection bias through a novel orthogonal diffusion loss. Another strength of our DiffPO method is that it is highly flexible (e.g., it can also be used to estimate different causal quantities such as CATE). Across a wide range of experiments, we show that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance.

Learning generalized models from biased data is an important undertaking toward fairness in deep learning. To address this issue, recent studies attempt to identify and leverage bias-conflicting samples free from spurious correlations without prior knowledge of bias or an unbiased set. However, spurious correlation remains an ongoing challenge, primarily due to the difficulty in correctly detecting these samples. In this paper, inspired by the similarities between mislabeled samples and bias-conflicting samples, we approach this challenge from a novel perspective of mislabeled sample detection. Specifically, we delve into Influence Function, one of the standard methods for mislabeled sample detection, for identifying bias-conflicting samples and propose a simple yet effective remedy for biased models by leveraging them. Through comprehensive analysis and experiments on diverse datasets, we demonstrate that our new perspective can boost the precision of detection and rectify biased models effectively. Furthermore, our approach is complementary to existing methods, showing performance improvement even when applied to models that have already undergone recent debiasing techniques.

Human motion capture from monocular videos has made significant progress in recent years. However, modern approaches often produce temporal artifacts, e.g. in form of jittery motion and struggle to achieve smooth and physically plausible motions. Explicitly integrating physics, in form of internal forces and exterior torques, helps alleviating these artifacts. Current state-of-the-art approaches make use of an automatic PD controller to predict torques and reaction forces in order to re-simulate the input kinematics, i.e. the joint angles of a predefined skeleton. However, due to imperfect physical models, these methods often require simplifying assumptions and extensive preprocessing of the input kinematics to achieve good performance.

The omnipresence of NP-hard combinatorial optimization problems (COPs) compels domain experts to engage in trial-and-error heuristic design. The long-standing endeavor of design automation has gained new momentum with the rise of large language models (LLMs). This paper introduces Language Hyper-Heuristics (LHHs), an emerging variant of Hyper-Heuristics that leverages LLMs for heuristic generation, featuring minimal manual intervention and open-ended heuristic spaces. To empower LHHs, we present Reflective Evolution (ReEvo), a novel integration of evolutionary search for efficiently exploring the heuristic space, and LLM reflections to provide verbal gradients within the space.

Due to the increasing popularity of Artificial Intelligence (AI), more and more backdoor attacks are designed to mislead Deep Neural Network (DNN) predictions by manipulating training samples or processes. Although backdoor attacks have been investigated in various scenarios, they still suffer from the problems of both low fidelity of poisoned samples and non-negligible transfer in latent space, which make them easily identified by existing backdoor detection algorithms. To overcome this weakness, this paper proposes a novel frequency-based backdoor attack method named WaveAttack, which obtains high-frequency image features through Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) to generate highly stealthy backdoor triggers. By introducing an asymmetric frequency obfuscation method, our approach adds an adaptive residual to the training and inference stages to improve the impact of triggers, thus further enhancing the effectiveness of WaveAttack. Comprehensive experimental results show that, WaveAttack can not only achieve higher effectiveness than state-of-the-art backdoor attack methods, but also outperform them in the fidelity of images (i.e., by up to 28.27\% improvement in PSNR, 1.61\% improvement in SSIM, and 70.59\% reduction in IS).

We introduce a benchmark to directly evaluate the alignment between human observers and vision models on a 3D shape inference task. We leverage an experimental design from the cognitive sciences: given a set of images, participants identify which contain the same/different objects, despite considerable viewpoint variation. We draw from a diverse range of images that include common objects (e.g., chairs) as well as abstract shapes (i.e., procedurally generated'nonsense' objects). After constructing over 2000 unique image sets, we administer these tasks to human participants, collecting 35K trials of behavioral data from over 500 participants. This includes explicit choice behaviors as well as intermediate measures, such as reaction time and gaze data. We then evaluate the performance of common vision models (e.g., DINOv2, MAE, CLIP). We find that humans outperform all models by a wide margin. Using a multi-scale evaluation approach, we identify underlying similarities and differences between models and humans: while human-model performance is correlated, humans allocate more time/processing on challenging trials. All images, data, and code can be accessed via our project page.

Researchers spent five years developing an AI-based model to protect freshwater fish worldwide from extinction, with a particular focus on identifying threats to fish before they become endangered. "People sometimes go in to protect species when it's already too late," said Ivan Arismendi, an associate professor in Oregon State University's Department of Fisheries, Wildlife, and Conservation Sciences. "With our model, decision makers can deploy resources in advance before a species becomes imperiled." The findings were recently published in the journal Nature Communications. Nearly one-third of freshwater fish species face possible extinction, threatening food supplies, ecosystems and outdoor recreation.

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