Deep neural networks are ubiquitously adopted in many applications, such as computer vision, natural language processing, and graph analytics. However, well-trained neural networks can make prediction errors after deployment as the world changes.

Web-crawled pretraining datasets underlie the impressive zero-shot evaluation performance of multimodal models, such as CLIP for classification and Stable-Diffusion for image generation. However, it is unclear how meaningful the notion of zero-shot generalization is for such multimodal models, as it is not known to what extent their pretraining datasets encompass the downstream concepts targeted for during zero-shot evaluation. In this work, we ask: How is the performance of multimodal models on downstream concepts influenced by the frequency of these concepts in their pretraining datasets?We comprehensively investigate this question across 34 models and 5 standard pretraining datasets (CC-3M, CC-12M, YFCC-15M, LAION-400M, LAION-Aesthetics), generating over 300GB of data artifacts. We consistently find that, far from exhibiting zero-shot generalization, multimodal models require exponentially more data to achieve linear improvements in downstream zero-shot performance, following a sample inefficient log-linear scaling trend. This trend persists even when controlling for sample-level similarity between pretraining and downstream datasets, and testing on purely synthetic data distributions. Furthermore, upon benchmarking models on long-tailed data sampled based on our analysis, we demonstrate that multimodal models across the board perform poorly. We contribute this long-tail test set as the Let it Wag! benchmark to further research in this direction. Taken together, our study reveals an exponential need for training data which implies that the key to zero-shot generalization capabilities under large-scale training data and compute paradigms remains to be found.

Gaussian processes (GPs) are non-parametric probabilistic regression models that are popular due to their flexibility, data efficiency, and well-calibrated uncertainty estimates. However, standard GP models assume homoskedastic Gaussian noise, while many real-world applications are subject to non-Gaussian corruptions. Variants of GPs that are more robust to alternative noise models have been proposed, and entail significant trade-offs between accuracy and robustness, and between computational requirements and theoretical guarantees. In this work, we propose and study a GP model that achieves robustness against sparse outliers by inferring data-point-specific noise levels with a sequential selection procedure maximizing the log marginal likelihood that we refer to as relevance pursuit. We show, surprisingly, that the model can be parameterized such that the associated log marginal likelihood is strongly concave in the data-point-specific noise variances, a property rarely found in either robust regression objectives or GP marginal likelihoods. This in turn implies the weak submodularity of the corresponding subset selection problem, and thereby proves approximation guarantees for the proposed algorithm. We compare the model's performance relative to other approaches on diverse regression and Bayesian optimization tasks, including the challenging but common setting of sparse corruptions of the labels within or close to the function range.

As an emerging task that integrates perception and reasoning, topology reasoning in autonomous driving scenes has recently garnered widespread attention. However, existing work often emphasizes perception over reasoning: they typically boost reasoning performance by enhancing the perception of lanes and directly adopt vanilla MLPs to learn lane topology from lane query. This paradigm overlooks the geometric features intrinsic to the lanes themselves and are prone to being influenced by inherent endpoint shifts in lane detection. To tackle this issue, we propose an interpretable method for lane topology reasoning based on lane geometric distance and lane query similarity, named TopoLogic. This method mitigates the impact of endpoint shifts in geometric space, and introduces explicit similarity calculation in semantic space as a complement. By integrating results from both spaces, our methods provides more comprehensive information for lane topology. Ultimately, our approach significantly outperforms the existing state-of-the-art methods on the mainstream benchmark OpenLane-V2 (23.9 v.s.

Global polynomial optimization is an important tool across applied mathematics, with many applications in operations research, engineering, and the physical sciences. In various settings, the polynomials depend on external parameters that may be random. We discuss a stochastic sum-of-squares (S-SOS) algorithm based on the sum-of-squares hierarchy that constructs a series of semidefinite programs to jointly find strict lower bounds on the global minimum and extracts candidates for parameterized global minimizers. We prove quantitative convergence of the hierarchy as the degree increases and use it to solve unconstrained and constrained polynomial optimization problems parameterized by random variables. By employing n-body priors from condensed matter physics to induce sparsity, we can use S-SOS to produce solutions and uncertainty intervals for sensor network localization problems containing up to 40 variables and semidefinite matrix sizes surpassing 800 x 800.

The problem of heterogeneous clients in federated learning has recently drawn a lot of attention. Spectral model sharding, i.e., partitioning the model parameters into low-rank matrices based on the singular value decomposition, has been one of the proposed solutions for more efficient on-device training in such settings. In this work we present two sampling strategies for such sharding, obtained as solutions to specific optimization problems. The first produces unbiased estimators of the original weights, while the second aims to minimize the squared approximation error. We discuss how both of these estimators can be incorporated in the federated learning loop and practical considerations that arise during local training. Empirically, we demonstrate that both of these methods can lead to improved performance in various commonly used datasets.

Opponent modeling is a longstanding research topic aimed at enhancing decision-making by modeling information about opponents in multi-agent environments. However, existing approaches often face challenges such as having difficulty generalizing to unknown opponent policies and conducting unstable performance. To tackle these challenges, we propose a novel approach based on in-context learning and decision-time search named Opponent Modeling with In-context Search (OMIS). OMIS leverages in-context learning-based pretraining to train a Transformer model for decision-making. It consists of three in-context components: an actor learning best responses to opponent policies, an opponent imitator mimicking opponent actions, and a critic estimating state values. When testing in an environment that features unknown non-stationary opponent agents, OMIS uses pretrained in-context components for decision-time search to refine the actor's policy. Theoretically, we prove that under reasonable assumptions, OMIS without search converges in opponent policy recognition and has good generalization properties; with search, OMIS provides improvement guarantees, exhibiting performance stability. Empirically, in competitive, cooperative, and mixed environments, OMIS demonstrates more effective and stable adaptation to opponents than other approaches. See our project website at https://sites.google.com/view/nips2024-omis.

The pursuit of fairness in machine learning (ML), ensuring that the models do not exhibit biases toward protected demographic groups, typically results in a compromise scenario. This compromise can be explained by a Pareto frontier where given certain resources (e.g., data), reducing the fairness violations often comes at the cost of lowering the model accuracy. In this work, we aim to train models that mitigate group fairness disparity without causing harm to model accuracy.Intuitively, acquiring more data is a natural and promising approach to achieve this goal by reaching a better Pareto frontier of the fairness-accuracy tradeoff. The current data acquisition methods, such as fair active learning approaches, typically require annotating sensitive attributes. However, these sensitive attribute annotations should be protected due to privacy and safety concerns. In this paper, we propose a tractable active data sampling algorithm that does not rely on training group annotations, instead only requiring group annotations on a small validation set. Specifically, the algorithm first scores each new example by its influence on fairness and accuracy evaluated on the validation dataset, and then selects a certain number of examples for training. We theoretically analyze how acquiring more data can improve fairness without causing harm, and validate the possibility of our sampling approach in the context of risk disparity. We also provide the upper bound of generalization error and risk disparity as well as the corresponding connections.Extensive experiments on real-world data demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed algorithm.

We propose a method of offline reinforcement learning (RL) featuring the performance guarantee without any assumptions on the data support. Under such conditions, estimating or optimizing the conventional performance metric is generally infeasible due to the distributional discrepancy between data and target policy distributions. To address this issue, we employ a worst-case policy value as a new metric and constructively show that the sample complexity bound of $O(\epsilon^{ 2})$ is attainable without any data-support conditions, where $\epsilon> 0$ is the policy suboptimality in the new metric. Moreover, as the new metric generalizes the conventional one, the algorithm can address standard offline RL tasks without modification. In this context, our sample complexity bound can be seen as a strict improvement on the previous bounds under the single-policy concentrability and the single-policy realizability.

The branch-and-cut algorithm is the method of choice to solve large scale integer programming problems in practice. A key ingredient of branch-and-cut is the use of which are derived constraints that reduce the search space for an optimal solution. Selecting effective cutting planes to produce small branch-and-cut trees is a critical challenge in the branch-and-cut algorithm. Recent advances have employed a data-driven approach to select good cutting planes from a parameterized family, aimed at reducing the branch-and-bound tree size (in expectation) for a given distribution of integer programming instances. We extend this idea to the selection of the best cut generating function (CGF), which is a tool in the integer programming literature for generating a wide variety of cutting planes that generalize the well-known Gomory Mixed-Integer (GMI) cutting planes. We provide rigorous sample complexity bounds for the selection of an effective CGF from certain parameterized families that provably performs well for any specified distribution on the problem instances. Our empirical results show that the selected CGF can outperform the GMI cuts for certain distributions. Additionally, we explore the sample complexity of using neural networks for instance-dependent CGF selection.