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Tiny Time Mixers (TTMs): Fast Pre-trained Models for Enhanced Zero/Few-Shot Forecasting of Multivariate Time Series

Neural Information Processing Systems

Large pre-trained models excel in zero/few-shot learning for language and vision tasks but face challenges in multivariate time series (TS) forecasting due to diverse data characteristics. Consequently, recent research efforts have focused on developing pre-trained TS forecasting models. These models, whether built from scratch or adapted from large language models (LLMs), excel in zero/few-shot forecasting tasks. However, they are limited by slow performance, high computational demands, and neglect of cross-channel and exogenous correlations. To address this, we introduce Tiny Time Mixers (TTM), a compact model (starting from 1M parameters) with effective transfer learning capabilities, trained exclusively on public TS datasets. TTM, based on the light-weight TSMixer architecture, incorporates innovations like adaptive patching, diverse resolution sampling, and resolution prefix tuning to handle pre-training on varied dataset resolutions with minimal model capacity. Additionally, it employs multi-level modeling to capture channel correlations and infuse exogenous signals during fine-tuning. TTM outperforms existing popular benchmarks in zero/few-shot forecasting by (4-40\%), while reducing computational requirements significantly. Moreover, TTMs are lightweight and can be executed even on CPU-only machines, enhancing usability and fostering wider adoption in resource-constrained environments.


Membership Inference on Text-to-Image Diffusion Models via Conditional Likelihood Discrepancy

Neural Information Processing Systems

Membership inference arises in these contexts as a potential auditing method for detecting unauthorized data usage. While some efforts have been made on diffusion models, they are not applicable to text-to-image diffusion models due to the high computation overhead and enhanced generalization capabilities. In this paper, we first identify a conditional overfitting phenomenon in text-to-image diffusion models, indicating that these models tend to overfit the conditional distribution of images given the corresponding text rather than the marginal distribution of images only. Based on this observation, we derive an analytical indicator, namely Conditional Likelihood Discrepancy (CLiD), to perform membership inference, which reduces the stochasticity in estimating memorization of individual samples. Experimental results demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms previous methods across various data distributions and dataset scales. Additionally, our method shows superior resistance to overfitting mitigation strategies, such as early stopping and data augmentation.


I Believe in one God, and It's Not a Computer

Mother Jones

How the data center boom plunged one small Pennsylvania town into chaos. Valley View Estates is set to be surrounded by data centers. Get your news from a source that's not owned and controlled by oligarchs. "I don't like to see anyone upset," said Nick Farris of Provident Real Estate Advisors. He was sitting in the front of a crowd of roughly 150 inside Valley View High School's auditorium in Archbald, a town of about 7,500, huddled between two mountain ranges in Pennsylvania's Lackawanna Valley. Farris was there to represent the developer for Project Scott, one of many data center campuses coming to town. "I think that this is the best data center site in this area of the country, by far." The audience had been fairly quiet, bundled in thick coats against the late January cold. But as Farris spoke about data centers as a boon for communities, they began to laugh, drawing a rebuke from town officials. "What about the children?" someone shouted from the crowd. The children were watching from the walls; long banners of Valley View Performing Arts students hanging around the auditorium like championship pennants. Project Scott and four other data facilities will sit just a few thousand feet from the middle and high schools. He was referring to Lockheed Martin's 350,000-square-foot Missiles and Fire Control facility directly next to the high school, parts of which are highly contaminated . "That sucks too!" another attendee yelled back.


A retro Starship Troopers shooter, a video store sim and other new indie games worth checking out

Engadget

Welcome to our latest roundup of what's going on in the indie game space. There are a whole bunch of neat new games out this week, as well as updates on some interesting upcoming projects. In case you missed it, the Steam Spring Sale is under way. There are lots of solid deals here, and my credit card is already screaming at me. I've picked up a bunch of games from my wishlist.


Aiper Scuba V3 Pool Robot Review: Eye on the Prize

WIRED

Now outfitted with AI computer vision, Aiper's new pool cleaner can actively search for debris. AI vision helps to power excellent cleaning. Charging stand makes topping up the battery easy. Only spends 10 minutes at the waterline after each run before sinking. Cleanup can be a bit of a bear.


Efficient Lifelong Model Evaluation in an Era of Rapid Progress

Neural Information Processing Systems

Standardized benchmarks drive progress in machine learning. However, with repeated testing, the risk of overfitting grows as algorithms over-exploit benchmark idiosyncrasies. In our work, we seek to mitigate this challenge by compiling \textit{ever-expanding} large-scale benchmarks called \textit{Lifelong Benchmarks}. As exemplars of our approach, we create \textit{Lifelong-CIFAR10} and \textit{Lifelong-ImageNet}, containing (for now) 1.69M and 1.98M test samples, respectively. While reducing overfitting, lifelong benchmarks introduce a key challenge: the high cost of evaluating a growing number of models across an ever-expanding sample set. To address this challenge, we also introduce an efficient evaluation framework: \textit{Sort \& Search (S\&S)}, which reuses previously evaluated models by leveraging dynamic programming algorithms to selectively rank and sub-select test samples, enabling cost-effective lifelong benchmarking. Extensive empirical evaluations across $\sim$31,000 models demonstrate that \textit{S\&S} achieves highly-efficient approximate accuracy measurement, reducing compute cost from 180 GPU days to 5 GPU hours ($\sim$1000x reduction) on a single A100 GPU, with low approximation error. As such, lifelong benchmarks offer a robust, practical solution to the ``benchmark exhaustion'' problem.


Vaccine: Perturbation-aware Alignment for Large Language Models against Harmful Fine-tuning Attack

Neural Information Processing Systems

The new paradigm of fine-tuning-as-a-service introduces a new attack surface for Large Language Models (LLMs): a few harmful data uploaded by users can easily trick the fine-tuning to produce an alignment-broken model. We conduct an empirical analysis and uncovera \textit{harmful embedding drift} phenomenon, showing a probable cause of the alignment-broken effect. Inspired by our findings, we propose Vaccine, a perturbation-aware alignment technique to mitigate the security risk of users fine-tuning. The core idea of Vaccine is to produce invariant hidden embeddings by progressively adding crafted perturbation to them in the alignment phase. This enables the embeddings to withstand harmful perturbation from un-sanitized user data in the fine-tuning phase. Our results on open source mainstream LLMs (e.g., Llama2, Opt, Vicuna) demonstrate that Vaccine can boost the robustness of alignment against harmful prompts induced embedding drift while reserving reasoning ability towards benign prompts.


Contrastive dimension reduction: when and how?

Neural Information Processing Systems

Dimension reduction (DR) is an important and widely studied technique in exploratory data analysis. However, traditional DR methods are not applicable to datasets with with a contrastive structure, where data are split into a foreground group of interest (case or treatment group), and a background group (control group). This type of data, common in biomedical studies, necessitates contrastive dimension reduction (CDR) methods to effectively capture information unique to or enriched in the foreground group relative to the background group. Despite the development of various CDR methods, two critical questions remain underexplored: when should these methods be applied, and how can the information unique to the foreground group be quantified? In this work, we address these gaps by proposing a hypothesis test to determine the existence of contrastive information, and introducing a contrastive dimension estimator (CDE) to quantify the unique components in the foreground group. We provide theoretical support for our methods and validate their effectiveness through extensive simulated, semi-simulated, and real experiments involving images, gene expressions, protein expressions, and medical sensors, demonstrating their ability to identify the unique information in the foreground group.


SequentialAttention++ for Block Sparsification: Differentiable Pruning Meets Combinatorial Optimization

Neural Information Processing Systems

Neural network pruning is a key technique towards engineering large yet scalable, interpretable, and generalizable models. Prior work on the subject has developed largely along two orthogonal directions: (1) differentiable pruning for efficiently and accurately scoring the importance of parameters, and (2) combinatorial optimization for efficiently searching over the space of sparse models. We unite the two approaches, both theoretically and empirically, to produce a coherent framework for structured neural network pruning in which differentiable pruning guides combinatorial optimization algorithms to select the most important sparse set of parameters. Theoretically, we show how many existing differentiable pruning techniques can be understood as nonconvex regularization for group sparse optimization, and prove that for a wide class of nonconvex regularizers, the global optimum is unique, group-sparse, and provably yields an approximate solution to a sparse convex optimization problem. The resulting algorithm that we propose, SequentialAttention++, advances the state of the art in large-scale neural network block-wise pruning tasks on the ImageNet and Criteo datasets.


Efficient Large Multi-modal Models via Visual Context Compression

Neural Information Processing Systems

While significant advancements have been made in compressed representations for text embeddings in large language models (LLMs), the compression of visual tokens in multi-modal LLMs (MLLMs) has remained a largely overlooked area. In this work, we present the study on the analysis of redundancy concerning visual tokens and efficient training within these models. Our initial experimentsshow that eliminating up to 70% of visual tokens at the testing stage by simply average pooling only leads to a minimal 3% reduction in visual question answering accuracy on the GQA benchmark, indicating significant redundancy in visual context. Addressing this, we introduce Visual Context Compressor, which reduces the number of visual tokens to enhance training and inference efficiency without sacrificing performance. To minimize information loss caused by the compression on visual tokens while maintaining training efficiency, we develop LLaVolta as a light and staged training scheme that incorporates stage-wise visual context compression to progressively compress the visual tokens from heavily to lightly compression during training, yielding no loss of information when testing. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our approach enhances the performance of MLLMs in both image-language and video-language understanding, while also significantly cutting training costs and improving inference efficiency.