Earth's'Gateway to Hell' keeps getting bigger Breakthroughs, discoveries, and DIY tips sent six days a week. In a remote area of the Siberian tundra, there's a place that locals call "The Gateway to Hell." In the summer, its peaceful waterfall sounds are interrupted by the booms and crashes of falling earth. The indigenous Yakut people are rightfully wary of the massive, slowly collapsing crater. Crater is an unsettling mark of our changing world.

As performance gains through scaling data and/or model size experience diminishing returns, it is becoming increasingly popular to turn to ensembling, where the predictions of multiple models are combined to improve accuracy. In this paper, we provide a detailed analysis of how the disagreement and the polarization (a notion we introduce and define in this paper) among classifiers relate to the performance gain achieved by aggregating individual classifiers, for majority vote strategies in classification tasks.We address these questions in the following ways.

In machine learning research, it is common to evaluate algorithms via their performance on standard benchmark datasets. While a growing body of work establishes guidelines for---and levies criticisms at---data and benchmarking practices in machine learning, comparatively less attention has been paid to the data repositories where these datasets are stored, documented, and shared. In this paper, we analyze the landscape of these and the role they can play in improving benchmarking. This role includes addressing issues with both datasets themselves (e.g., representational harms, construct validity) and the manner in which evaluation is carried out using such datasets (e.g., overemphasis on a few datasets and metrics, lack of reproducibility). To this end, we identify and discuss a set of considerations surrounding the design and use of benchmark data repositories, with a focus on improving benchmarking practices in machine learning.

Modern vision models are trained on very large noisy datasets. While these models acquire strong capabilities, they may not follow the user's intent to output the desired results in certain aspects, e.g., visual aesthetic, preferred style, and responsibility. In this paper, we target the realm of visual aesthetics and aim to align vision models with human aesthetic standards in a retrieval system. Advanced retrieval systems usually adopt a cascade of aesthetic models as re-rankers or filters, which are limited to low-level features like saturation and perform poorly when stylistic, cultural or knowledge contexts are involved. We find that utilizing the reasoning ability of large language models (LLMs) to rephrase the search query and extend the aesthetic expectations can make up for this shortcoming.

We introduce a machine learning approach to model checking temporal logic, with application to formal hardware verification. Model checking answers the question of whether every execution of a given system satisfies a desired temporal logic specification. Unlike testing, model checking provides formal guarantees. Its application is expected standard in silicon design and the EDA industry has invested decades into the development of performant symbolic model checking algorithms. Our new approach combines machine learning and symbolic reasoning by using neural networks as formal proof certificates for linear temporal logic. We train our neural certificates from randomly generated executions of the system and we then symbolically check their validity using satisfiability solving which, upon the affirmative answer, establishes that the system provably satisfies the specification. We leverage the expressive power of neural networks to represent proof certificates as well as the fact that checking a certificate is much simpler than finding one. As a result, our machine learning procedure for model checking is entirely unsupervised, formally sound, and practically effective. We experimentally demonstrate that our method outperforms the state-of-the-art academic and commercial model checkers on a set of standard hardware designs written in SystemVerilog.

Bayesian Optimization (BO) is widely used for optimising black-box functions but requires us to specify the length scale hyperparameter, which defines the smoothness of the functions the optimizer will consider. Most current BO algorithms choose this hyperparameter by maximizing the marginal likelihood of the observed data, albeit risking misspecification if the objective function is less smooth in regions we have not yet explored. The only prior solution addressing this problem with theoretical guarantees was A-GP-UCB, proposed by Berkenkamp et al. (2019). This algorithm progressively decreases the length scale, expanding the class of functions considered by the optimizer. However, A-GP-UCB lacks a stopping mechanism, leading to over-exploration and slow convergence.

The efficacy of large language models (LLMs) in understanding and generating natural language has aroused a wide interest in developing prompt-based methods to harness the power of black-box LLMs. Existing methodologies usually prioritize a global optimization for finding the global optimum, which however will perform poorly in certain tasks. This thus motivates us to re-think the necessity of finding a global optimum in prompt optimization. To answer this, we conduct a thorough empirical study on prompt optimization and draw two major insights.

In recent years, transformer-based models have revolutionized deep learning, particularly in sequence modeling. To better understand this phenomenon, there is a growing interest in using Markov input processes to study transformers. However, our current understanding in this regard remains limited with many fundamental questions about how transformers learn Markov chains still unanswered. In this paper, we address this by focusing on first-order Markov chains and single-layer transformers, providing a comprehensive characterization of the learning dynamics in this context. Specifically, we prove that transformer parameters trained on next-token prediction loss can either converge to global or local minima, contingent on the initialization and the Markovian data properties, and we characterize the precise conditions under which this occurs. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first result of its kind highlighting the role of initialization. We further demonstrate that our theoretical findings are corroborated by empirical evidence. Based on these insights, we provide guidelines for the initialization of single-layer transformers and demonstrate their effectiveness. Finally, we outline several open problems in this arena.

Introduced to enhance the efficiency of large language model (LLM) inference, speculative decoding operates by having a smaller model generate a draft. A larger target model then reviews this draft to align with its output, and any acceptance by the target model results in a reduction of the number of the target model runs, ultimately improving efficiency. However, the drafting process in speculative decoding includes slow autoregressive generation and allocates equal time to generating tokens, irrespective of their importance. These inefficiencies collectively contribute to the suboptimal performance of speculative decoding. To further improve LLM inference, we introduce Cascade Speculative Drafting (CS Drafting), a speculative execution algorithm that incorporates two types of cascades. The eliminates autoregressive generation from neural models, while the optimizes time allocation in drafting for improved efficiency. Combining both cascades, CS Drafting achieves greater speedup compared to the baselines in our experiments, while preserving the same output distribution as the target model.

This paper studies the scaling behavior of state-space models (SSMs) and their structured variants, such as Mamba, that have recently arisen in popularity as alternatives to transformer-based neural network architectures. Specifically, we focus on the capability of SSMs to learn features as their network width approaches infinity. Our findings reveal that established scaling rules, such as the Maximal Update Parameterization, fail to support feature learning as these models cannot be represented in the form of Tensor Programs. Additionally, we demonstrate that spectral scaling conditions, shown to be effective for feature learning in a host of other architectures, do not hold the same implications for SSMs. Through a detailed signal propagation analysis in SSMs, both forward and backward, we identify the appropriate scaling necessary for non-trivial feature evolution in the infinite-width limit. Our proposed scaling shows behavior akin to the Maximal Update Parameterization, such as improved stability, better generalization, and transferability of optimal hyper-parameters from small to large scale SSMs.