Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

We consider sequential decision making problem in the adversarial setting, where regret is measured with respect to the optimal sequence of actions and the feedback adheres the bandit setting. It is well-known that obtaining sublinear regret in this setting is impossible in general, which arises the question of when can we do better than linear regret? Previous works show that when the environment is guaranteed to vary slowly and furthermore we are given prior knowledge regarding its variation (i.e., a limit on the amount of changes suffered by the environment), then this task is feasible. The caveat however is that such prior knowledge is not likely to be available in practice, which causes the obtained regret bounds to be somewhat irrelevant. Our main result is a regret guarantee that scales with the variation parameter of the environment, without requiring any prior knowledge about it whatsoever. By that, we also resolve an open problem posted by Gur, Zeevi and Besbes [8]. An important key component in our result is a statistical test for identifying non-stationarity in a sequence of independent random variables. This test either identifies nonstationarity or upper-bounds the absolute deviation of the corresponding sequence of mean values in terms of its total variation. This test is interesting on its own right and has the potential to be found useful in additional settings.

Fast algorithms for nearest neighbor (NN) search have in large part focused on 2 distance. Here we develop an approach for 1 distance that begins with an explicit and exactly distance-preserving embedding of the points into 22. We show how this can efficiently be combined with random-projection based methods for 2 NN search, such as locality-sensitive hashing (LSH) or random projection trees. We rigorously establish the correctness of the methodology and show by experimentation using LSH that it is competitive in practice with available alternatives.

We consider the assortment optimization problem when customer preferences follow a mixture of Mallows distributions. The assortment optimization problem focuses on determining the revenue/profit maximizing subset of products from a large universe of products; it is an important decision that is commonly faced by retailers in determining what to offer their customers. There are two key challenges: (a) the Mallows distribution lacks a closed-form expression (and requires summing an exponential number of terms) to compute the choice probability and, hence, the expected revenue/profit per customer; and (b) finding the best subset may require an exhaustive search. Our key contributions are an efficiently computable closed-form expression for the choice probability under the Mallows model and a compact mixed integer linear program (MIP) formulation for the assortment problem.

Probabilistic techniques are central to data analysis, but different approaches can be challenging to apply, combine, and compare. This paper introduces composable generative population models (CGPMs), a computational abstraction that extends directed graphical models and can be used to describe and compose a broad class of probabilistic data analysis techniques. Examples include discriminative machine learning, hierarchical Bayesian models, multivariate kernel methods, clustering algorithms, and arbitrary probabilistic programs. We demonstrate the integration of CGPMs into BayesDB, a probabilistic programming platform that can express data analysis tasks using a modeling definition language and structured query language. The practical value is illustrated in two ways. First, the paper describes an analysis on a database of Earth satellites, which identifies records that probably violate Kepler's Third Law by composing causal probabilistic programs with nonparametric Bayes in 50 lines of probabilistic code. Second, it reports the lines of code and accuracy of CGPMs compared with baseline solutions from standard machine learning libraries.

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

We develop efficient solution methods for a robust empirical risk minimization problem designed to give calibrated confidence intervals on performance and provide optimal tradeoffs between bias and variance. Our methods apply to distributionally robust optimization problems proposed by Ben-Tal et al., which put more weight on observations inducing high loss via a worst-case approach over a non-parametric uncertainty set on the underlying data distribution. Our algorithm solves the resulting minimax problems with nearly the same computational cost of stochastic gradient descent through the use of several carefully designed data structures. For a sample of size n, the per-iteration cost of our method scales as O(logn), which allows us to give optimality certificates that distributionally robust optimization provides at little extra cost compared to empirical risk minimization and stochastic gradient methods.

Starting with the Thomspon sampling algorithm, recent years have seen a resurgence of interest in Bayesian algorithms for the Multi-armed Bandit (MAB) problem. These algorithms seek to exploit prior information on arm biases and while several have been shown to be regret optimal, their design has not emerged from a principled approach. In contrast, if one cared about Bayesian regret discounted over an infinite horizon at a fixed, pre-specified rate, the celebrated Gittins index theorem offers an optimal algorithm. Unfortunately, the Gittins analysis does not appear to carry over to minimizing Bayesian regret over all sufficiently large horizons and computing a Gittins index is onerous relative to essentially any incumbent index scheme for the Bayesian MAB problem. The present paper proposes a sequence of'optimistic' approximations to the Gittins index. We show that the use of these approximations in concert with the use of an increasing discount factor appears to offer a compelling alternative to state-of-the-art index schemes proposed for the Bayesian MAB problem in recent years by offering substantially improved performance with little to no additional computational overhead. In addition, we prove that the simplest of these approximations yields frequentist regret that matches the Lai-Robbins lower bound, including achieving matching constants.

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/