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Pessimistic Risk-Aware Policy Learning in Contextual Bandits

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We study risk-aware offline policy learning, aiming to learn a decision rule from logged data that is optimal under general risk criteria. This problem is crucial in high-stakes domains where online interaction is infeasible and adverse outcomes must be carefully controlled. However, existing literature on offline contextual bandits either centers on expected-reward criteria or restricts risk considerations to policy evaluation instead of optimization. In this work, we propose a unified distributional framework for optimizing Lipschitz-continuous risk functionals, a broad class of risk measures encompassing mean-variance, entropic risk, and conditional value-at-risk, among others. By developing novel empirical concentration inequalities for importance sampling-based distributional estimators, our analysis derives data-dependent suboptimality bounds with an $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(1/\sqrt{n})$ rate, without relying on restrictive uniform overlap assumptions. This rate is minimax optimal and matches that of risk-neutral offline policy optimization, indicating that optimizing general Lipschitz risk criteria incurs no additional statistical cost relative to the expected-reward.


Leveraging heterogeneity for identifiability: Bayesian order-based learning of multiple DAGs

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We propose a joint order-based scoring framework for causal structure learning of directed acyclic graph (DAG) models under heterogeneous data settings. We show that leveraging heterogeneity improves the accuracy of causal ordering estimation. In the most favorable case, the causal ordering is identifiable up to two permutations. Building on this framework, we propose an order-based Bayesian method for Gaussian DAG models and establish its theoretical properties in the high-dimensional regime. For posterior inference over the space of orderings, we introduce a random-to-random (R2R) proposal neighborhood for the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, which is theoretically motivated and exhibits efficient mixing behavior. Simulation studies confirm the strong empirical performance of the proposed method, and an application to single-nucleus RNA sequencing data from major depressive disorder demonstrates practical utility.


$α$-TCAV: A Unified Framework for Testing with Concept Activation Vectors

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Concept Activation Vectors (CAVs) are a fundamental tool for concept-based explainability in deep learning, yet their practical utility is limited by statistical instability. We analyze the stochastic nature of CAVs and the Testing with CAVs (TCAV) method, deriving the distributions of major CAV classes including PatternCAV, FastCAV, and ridge regression-based CAVs. We then identify a fundamental flaw in the standard TCAV score: its reliance on a discontinuous indicator function induces non-decaying variance in critical regimes. To address this, we introduce $α$-TCAV, a generalized framework that replaces the indicator with a parameterized smooth function, yielding a unified probabilistic formulation that subsumes both TCAV and Multi-TCAV. We characterize the induced distributions of sensitivity scores and different TCAV variants, showing that established state-of-the-art choices lack theoretical justification. We provide principled guidance on tuning the parameter in $α$-TCAV -- either to imitate Multi-TCAV at substantially lower computational cost, or to obtain a calibrated Bayes-optimal probabilistic measure of a concept's influence. Finally, our analysis yields practical recommendations that challenge established routines: most notably, allocating the full sampling budget to a single CAV rather than splitting it across several.


Tighter Regret Bounds for Contextual Action-Set Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We study episodic reinforcement learning with fixed reward and transition functions, but with episode-dependent admissible action sets that are observed at the start of each episode. Performance is measured by cumulative regret against the episode-wise optimal value, $\sum_{k=1}^K [V^{*,M^k} - V^{π^k,M^k}]$, where $M^k$ represents the action context in the $k$-th episode. We show that the MVP algorithm naturally extends to this framework and enjoys strong theoretical guarantees. In particular, we establish a minimax regret bound of $\widetilde{O}(\sqrt{SAH^3K\log L})$ for adversarial contexts, where $L$ denotes the number of possible contexts. This result implies a regret bound of $\widetilde{O}(\sqrt{SAH^3K})$ for stochastic contexts. We further translate the stochastic regret guarantee into a sample complexity bound of $\widetilde{O}(SAH^3/ε^2)$ for a fixed context distribution. In addition, we derive a gap-dependent regret bound of \[ \widetilde O\left( \inf_{p\in [0,1)} \left( \frac{1}{Δ_{\min}^{p}} + pKΔ_{\min}^{p} \right)\log K \cdot \mathrm{poly}(S,A,H) \right), \] where $Δ_{\min}^{p}$ is the global $p$-trimmed positive-gap floor over suboptimal $(h,s,a)$ triples. This bound can substantially improve upon the minimax rate when the relevant suboptimality gaps are large.


Learning Context-conditioned Gaussian Overbounds for Convolution-Based Uncertainty Propagation

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Uncertainty quantification is essential in safety-critical settings--from autonomous driving to aviation, finance, and health--where decisions must rely on conservative bounds rather than point estimates. Predictor-level intervals (e.g., from quantile regression, conformal prediction, variance networks, or Bayesian models) generally do not compose: adding two per-variable intervals need not yield a valid interval for their sum or preserve coverage. In aviation, Gaussian overbounding replaces complex error distributions with a conservative Gaussian whose tails dominate the truth, so conservatism propagates through linear operations. Yet classical overbounds are global, often overly conservative, and hard to adapt to feature-conditioned errors. We propose a unified learning framework that trains neural networks to produce context-aware Gaussian overbounds--mean and scale--with provable conservatism on a finite quantile grid and, under three explicit regularity assumptions, continuous-tail conservatism on a certified interval. Our overbounding loss enforces conservativeness at selected quantiles while penalizing distributional distance with a Wasserstein-style term. The learned bounds support conservative linear-combination and convolution analysis on the enforced grid, and on the certified interval when assumptions hold, while being less redundant than traditional methods. We provide a scoped analysis of discrete-to-continuous conservatism and compact-domain objective regularity, and validate on synthetic data and real-world datasets, including multipath, ionospheric, and tropospheric residual errors. Across these settings, the method yields tighter bounds while maintaining conservatism on the enforced grid and in experiments. The framework is modality-agnostic and applicable to learning systems that require conservative, feature-conditioned uncertainty estimates in dynamic environments.


Intrinsic Wasserstein Rates for Score-Based Generative Models on Smooth Manifolds

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Score-based generative models are trained in high-dimensional ambient spaces, yet many data distributions are supported on low-dimensional nonlinear structures. We prove that, for compact $d$-dimensional smooth manifolds $\mathcal{M} \subset [0,1]^D$ with $d > 2$ and $β$-Hölder densities strictly positive on $\mathcal{M}$, a variance-preserving SGM estimator attains the intrinsic Wasserstein--1 sample exponent $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(D^{\mathcal{O}_β(d)}n^{-(β+1)/(d+2β)})$, up to logarithmic factors and explicit geometry and density factors. The full nonasymptotic bound explicitly isolates the finite-order geometry envelope, Hölder radius, density lower bound, ambient dependence, and finite-order correction terms. The analysis separates score approximation into a large-noise tangent-cell regime and a small-noise projection-centered, de-Gaussianized Laplace regime. The key technical ingredient is a ReLU implementation of nearest-projection coordinates via finite intrinsic anchors and Gauss--Newton iterations, rather than approximating the manifold projection as a black-box high-dimensional smooth map. Consequently, for families with polynomially controlled geometry and density lower bounds, the constructed score-network parameters have polynomial ambient dependence.


Complexity of Non-Log-Concave Sampling in Fisher Information

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We study the query complexity of obtaining a relative Fisher information guarantee for sampling from a log-smooth non-log-concave distribution; this is a sampling analog of finding an approximate stationary point in optimization. Our algorithm is based on the proximal sampler, which is an implicit discretization of the Langevin diffusion, and requires an implementation of the backward step known as the restricted Gaussian oracle (RGO). We show that by leveraging the recent results for log-concave sampling with high-accuracy guarantees in Rényi divergence, we can obtain an approximate RGO implementation that -- when used with the proximal sampler -- yields a complexity guarantee in relative Fisher information that inherits the same dimension dependence as log-concave sampling, and improves upon prior work for non-log-concave sampling. We also show a converse reduction that any improvement in the dimension dependence in relative Fisher information for non-log-concave sampling will yield an improved dimension dependence for high-accuracy log-concave sampling.


Unsupervised Domain Shift Detection with Interpretable Subspace Attribution

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We developed a tool for detecting domain shifts, namely subtle differences in the probability distributions of datasets. We identify these shifts using an algorithm designed to detect localised density anomalies in high-dimensional feature spaces. If an anomaly is present, we then identify the feature subspace in which the anomaly is most pronounced. This allows us to trace the domain shift to a small set of features, making the shift interpretable. Moreover, we provide a protocol for compensating domain shifts by extracting, from two unlabelled datasets, subsets of samples with no detectable residual distributional difference. We validate the framework on controlled 20-dimensional benchmarks with known ground truth, recovering both broad and localized shifts together with their supporting feature subspaces. We then apply it to healthy electrocardiogram (ECG) recordings represented by 782 features. In age- and sex-matched cohort comparisons differing in measurement-device composition, the method detects device-induced shifts, extracts representative subsets enriched in the imbalanced device components, and identifies ECG features associated with the acquisition contrast. These results suggest that density-shift detection and subspace attribution provide a practical framework for uncovering hidden cohort biases before downstream modelling.


Node-private community estimation in stochastic block models: Tractable algorithms and lower bounds

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We study the classical problem of community recovery in stochastic block models with a fixed number of communities, with a twist: We seek algorithms that are stable with respect to node-wise changes in the graph structure, formally defined as a differential privacy constraint. The algorithms we develop are based on spectral clustering, where we introduce privacy to the community recovery pipeline in the form of directly privatizing the adjacency matrix; private PCA; private convex optimization; private low-rank matrix estimation; and private approximate subspace estimation. Straightforward applications of existing private algorithms lead to a rapid increase in the privacy parameter $ε$ in order to ensure consistent estimation under node differential privacy, in contrast with the simpler setting of edge privacy. To alleviate these issues, we develop novel algorithms based on (1) sampling from an exponential mechanism with a Lipschitz extension and (2) a general framework for constructing smooth projections from the space of undirected graphs to the space of bounded-degree graphs, which can then be combined with various edge-private algorithms. Importantly, the methods we develop are all computable in polynomial-time as a function of the number of nodes in the graph. We also develop novel lower bounds on the growth rate of $ε$ required in order to achieve consistent community estimation under node privacy. On a technical note, our paper highlights the complications that arise when analyzing private algorithms under the non-standard scaling $ε\rightarrow \infty$ and proposes some solutions. We also provide a novel application of the HGR maximal correlation from information theory in the context of accuracy amplification in PAC learning, which may be of independent interest.


Testing properties of trees in graphical models with covariance queries

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We consider the problem of testing properties of graphs underlying high-dimensional graphical models. We adopt the model of covariance queries introduced by Lugosi, Truszkowski, Velona, and Zwiernik (2021). We study the case when the underlying graph is a tree. The main results of the paper show that, while reconstructing the entire tree may be costly, certain global structural properties can be tested efficiently. In particular, we design randomized tests for global structural properties that use a sub-quadratic number of queries. We develop testing procedures for several fundamental properties, including the number of leaves, the maximum degree, the typical distance, and the diameter of the tree. For each property, we obtain explicit query complexity bounds that depend on the target threshold and tolerance parameters.