Off-policy evaluation (OPE) estimates the value of a target treatment policy (e.g., a recommender system) using data collected by a different logging policy. It enables high-stakes experimentation without live deployment, yet in practice accuracy depends heavily on the logging policy used to collect data for computing the estimate. We study how to design logging policies that minimize OPE error for given target policies. We characterize a fundamental reward-coverage tradeoff: concentrating probability mass on high-reward actions reduces variance but risks missing signal on actions the target policy may take. We propose a unifying framework for logging policy design and derive optimal policies in canonical informational regimes where the target policy and reward distribution are (i) known, (ii) unknown, and (iii) partially known through priors or noisy estimates at logging time. Our results provide actionable guidance for firms choosing among multiple candidate recommendation systems. We demonstrate the importance of treatment selection when gathering data for OPE, and describe theoretically optimal approaches when this is a firm's primary objective. We also distill practical design principles for selecting logging policies when operational constraints prevent implementing the theoretical optimum.

This paper investigates the critical role of eigenalignments between the kernel matrix and learning targets in achieving robust generalization in learning problems. We establish a direct connection between generalization performance in kernel methods and the estimation of eigenvectors and eigenvalues of matrices, offering a more intuitive understanding compared to prior work with minimal assumptions. We also show that, since the prediction task in KRR is essentially the weighted sum of eigenvectors/singular vectors, by analyzing how much error can be caused by perturbations to the kernel matrix, we can then derive a bound on this generalization error using the estimation stability of matrix eigenvalues and eigenvectors. Compared with previous work, our analysis concentrates on finite-sample settings and on the generalization error arising from having a suboptimal finite training set. Our findings reveal that in kernel methods, as long as the kernel is of high rank, the near-zero reconstruction error can be trivially obtained, implying that the reconstruction error will have limited predictive power for generalization. Finally, we establish a generalization bound from an eigenvalues/eigenvectors estimation perspective, showing that strong generalization requires increasing eigenvector alignment, eigenvalue magnitude, or gaps between consecutive eigenvalues.

Data augmentation is widely recognized for improving generalization in deep networks, yet its impact on the geometry of learned representations remains poorly understood. In this work, we characterize how different data augmentation strategies reshape internal representations in neural networks. Using tools from shape analysis, we embed network hidden representations into a metric space where distance is invariant to scaling, translation, rotation and reflection. We show that increasing augmentation strength leads to well-behaved trajectories in this space, and that different augmentation types steer representations in distinct directions. Moreover, we investigate how neural representation shapes are distorted along data augmentation trajectories, and show that insights from neural geometry can predict which representations provide the most improvement when ensembling models. Our results reveal shared geometric patterns across architectures and seeds, and suggest that analyzing shape-space trajectories offers a principled tool for understanding and comparing data augmentation methods.

Accurate surrogate construction for PDE-driven high-dimensional rare-event simulation is challenging when performance evaluations are expensive. Since a globally accurate surrogate may require many high-fidelity evaluations, adaptive importance sampling provides a natural localization tool: its evolving proposal distribution progressively identifies the failure-relevant region. Motivated by this observation, we propose a surrogate-assisted adaptive importance sampling framework that refines the surrogate locally along the evolving proposal, rather than over the entire input space. The surrogate combines an encoder with a neural network, providing a low-dimensional latent representation for both prediction and sample selection. At each adaptive iteration, candidates drawn from the current proposal are selected by a greedy latent-space rule balancing proximity to the estimated failure boundary and sample diversity. The selected samples are evaluated by the high-fidelity model and used to refine the surrogate, which then guides the subsequent cross-entropy-type adaptive proposal update. We establish one-step proposal stability bounds under local surrogate errors, together with surrogate-induced misclassification and finite-sample estimation error bounds. Numerical experiments on multimodal benchmarks and PDE-driven rare-event problems up to 100 dimensions show that the proposed method achieves accuracy comparable to true-model adaptive importance sampling while requiring substantially fewer high-fidelity evaluations.

Joint-embedding predictive architectures (JEPAs) propose that a model should learn more useful abstractions when trained to predict latent representations rather than observed outputs. For autoregressive language-model fine-tuning the principle entails a stricter requirement: the induced hidden-state geometry must reach the language-model head \emph{and} improve the decoded task metric. We test that requirement under a fixed Llama-3.2-1B-Instruct LoRA harness on natural-language-to-regex generation, comparing twenty-two training-time auxiliaries across trajectory-shape regularisation, distributional constraints, predictor/target asymmetry, Fisher-metric Jacobi residuals, and a decoder-visible JEPA objective constructed to lie in cross-entropy's positive cone. The empirical answer is a structured null: several auxiliaries clear single-cell paired $α= 0.10$ without correction (T3-Local at $Δ= +2.53$~pp, $p = 0.003$ being the strongest), but none survives Bonferroni or Holm--Bonferroni at the relevant family-wise threshold, even though many change curvature, anisotropy, variance, and gradient direction. Decoder-visible JEPA yields the first positive auxiliary--cross-entropy gradient cosine in the study, yet exact match remains inside seed noise; a full-fine-tuning replication of the same auxiliary at $n = 5$ seeds reproduces the null on both benchmarks (TURK: $Δ= +0.04$~pp, $p_{\text{paired}} = 0.96$; SYNTH: $Δ= +0.52$~pp, $p_{\text{paired}} = 0.28$), so the null is robust across LoRA and full fine-tuning for the decoder-visible construction. Hidden-state representation work and decoded-task accuracy are therefore weakly coupled in this regime; we accordingly reframe LLM-domain JEPA evaluation as a coupling problem, in which the operative question is under which metrics useful hidden geometry becomes decoder-visible task signal.

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models rely on balanced expert utilization to fully realize their scalability. However, existing load-balancing methods are largely heuristic and operate on noisy mini-batch assignment statistics, introducing bias relative to population-level objectives. We propose $ϕ$-balancing, a principled framework that directly targets population-level expert balance by minimizing a strictly convex, symmetric, and differentiable potential of the expected routing distribution. Using convex duality, we derive an equivalent min-max formulation and obtain a simple online algorithm via mirror descent, yielding an efficient EMA-based routing adjustment with negligible overhead. Across large-scale pretraining and downstream fine-tuning, $ϕ$-balancing consistently outperforms prior Switch-style and loss-free baselines, demonstrating more stable and effective expert utilization.

We study contextual dynamic pricing in a semiparametric scalar-index valuation model where the latent value is $v_t=μ_\ast(\mathsf c_t)+ξ_t$, with an unknown utility map $μ_\ast$ and an unknown additive noise distribution. The key decision object is the one-dimensional oracle price map $u\mapsto p^\ast(u)$ induced by the scalar index $u=μ_\ast(\mathsf c)$ and the noise tail. Under the $β$-Hölder smoothness of the tail function for $β\geq 2$ and a revenue-geometry condition that gives a unique, stable, interior maximizer, this oracle map is itself $(β-1)$-smooth. We exploit such structure through $\mathsf{ORBIT}$, a modular coarse-to-fine policy that takes a scalar pilot index as input, localizes a benchmark price in each active bin, and learns a local polynomial approximation of the oracle map inside a trust region via bandit convex optimization. For the baseline linear utility model $μ_\ast(\mathsf c)=\mathsf c^\topθ_\ast$, an adaptive elliptical exploration scheme constructs the required scalar pilot online without distributional assumptions on the contexts. The resulting policy achieves regret $\widetilde{O}\big(T^{\frac{2β-1}{4β-3}}+\sqrt{dT}\big)$. For fixed $d$, we establish a matching lower bound in the horizon dependence, unveiling that the nonparametric oracle-map learning term is minimax sharp. The same scalar-pilot interface also yields extensions to sparse high-dimensional linear utility and nonparametric Hölder utility.

Reasoning-trained language models often spend more tokens on harder problems, but longer chains of thought do not show whether a model is merely computing for more steps or following a different internal trajectory. We study this distinction through hidden-state trajectories during chain-of-thought generation across competitive programming, mathematics, and Boolean satisfiability. Raw trajectory geometry is strongly shaped by generation length: longer generations mechanically alter path statistics, so difficulty-dependent comparisons are misleading without adjustment. After residualizing trajectory statistics on length, difficulty remains systematically coupled to corrected trajectory geometry across all domains studied. The clearest reasoning-specific separation appears in the code domain, where harder problems show more direct corrected trajectories and less heterogeneous local curvature in reasoning-trained models than in matched instruction-tuned baselines. Corrected difficulty-geometry coupling is weaker, but still present, in mathematics and Boolean satisfiability. Prompt-stage linear probes do not mirror the code-domain separation, and behavioral annotations show that stronger corrected coupling co-occurs with strategy shifts and uncertainty monitoring. Together, these findings establish length correction as a prerequisite for generation-time trajectory analysis and show that reasoning training can be associated with distinct corrected trajectory geometry, with the strength of the effect depending on the domain.

The minima of modern neural network loss functions are typically not isolated, rather they form connected components of reparameterization invariant solutions on the training data. Analytically characterizing these solutions is a hard problem, but sampling approaches are feasible. By construction, existing methods either spread over low-loss regions, and thus do not sample reparameterization invariant solutions exactly, or are inherently local, which limits exploration of other minima valleys. We propose sampling such reparameterization invariant models using a dynamical system based on kinetic energy, subject to a gravitational pull and a friction term that dissipates energy from the system. Our proposed sampler, DIMS, is guaranteed to sample exactly from the minimum level sets and depends on physically motivated hyperparameters which allows control over the exploration capabilities of the sampler. We consider uncertainty quantification in Bayesian inference as the motivating problem and observe improved performance compared to previously proposed approaches.

Subgroup analyses within randomized controlled trials are often underpowered due to limited sample sizes. We address this challenge by leveraging trial participants outside the subgroup of interest to augment estimation within the subgroup. Specifically, we study two Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimators (TMLEs) that borrow information from non-subgroup participants within the same trial: a TMLE with pooled regression (TMLE-PR) and an Adaptive Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimator (A-TMLE). Both estimators enable information sharing without relying on any external real-world data, thereby capitalizing on key strengths of the trial: most importantly, the protection against bias afforded by the randomized treatment, but also harmonized data collection, and consistent treatment and outcome definitions. The general strategy proposed here directly advances the priorities of key regulatory agencies, including the FDA, by improving the precision of subgroup-specific treatment effect estimates without introducing external sources of bias, thereby facilitating rigorous inference to support equitable labeling, access, and post-market evaluation. In a case study based on analysis of data from a cardiovascular outcome trial (LEADER, NCT01179048), we estimate the risk reduction of major adverse cardiac events (MACE) under liraglutide treatment among Black and Asian subgroups -- each comprising less than 10\% of the trial population -- using the proposed estimators that borrow information from the remainder of the trial. Using A-TMLE, in particular, we find estimated absolute MACE risk reductions of 1.6, 1.5, and 1.5 percentage points among Asian participants and 2.1, 2.0, and 2.1 percentage points among Black participants at 365, 540, and 730 days, respectively, with 95\% confidence intervals excluding the null at each time point.