Bayesian approaches have become increasingly popular in causal inference problems due to their conceptual simplicity, excellent performance and in-built uncertainty quantification ('posterior credible sets'). We investigate Bayesian inference for average treatment effects from observational data, which is a challenging problem due to the missing counterfactuals and selection bias. Working in the standard potential outcomes framework, we propose a data-driven modification to an arbitrary (nonparametric) prior based on the propensity score that corrects for the first-order posterior bias, thereby improving performance. We illustrate our method for Gaussian process (GP) priors using (semi-)synthetic data. Our experiments demonstrate significant improvement in both estimation accuracy and uncertainty quantification compared to the unmodified GP, rendering our approach highly competitive with the state-of-the-art.

We study three fundamental statistical-learning problems: distribution estimation, property estimation, and property testing. We establish the profile maximum likelihood (PML) estimator as the first unified sample-optimal approach to a wide range of learning tasks. In particular, for every alphabet size $k$ and desired accuracy $\varepsilon$: \textbf{Distribution estimation} Under $\ell_1$ distance, PML yields optimal $\Theta(k/(\varepsilon 2\log k))$ sample complexity for sorted-distribution estimation, and a PML-based estimator empirically outperforms the Good-Turing estimator on the actual distribution; \textbf{Additive property estimation} For a broad class of additive properties, the PML plug-in estimator uses just four times the sample size required by the best estimator to achieve roughly twice its error, with exponentially higher confidence; \textbf{$\alpha$-R\'enyi entropy estimation} For an integer $\alpha 1$, the PML plug-in estimator has optimal $k {1-1/\alpha}$ sample complexity; for non-integer $\alpha 3/4$, the PML plug-in estimator has sample complexity lower than the state of the art; \textbf{Identity testing} In testing whether an unknown distribution is equal to or at least $\varepsilon$ far from a given distribution in $\ell_1$ distance, a PML-based tester achieves the optimal sample complexity up to logarithmic factors of $k$. With minor modifications, most of these results also hold for a near-linear-time computable variant of PML. Papers published at the Neural Information Processing Systems Conference.

We present an efficient algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of exponential family models, with a general parametrization of the energy function that includes neural networks. We exploit the primal-dual view of the MLE with a kinetics augmented model to obtain an estimate associated with an adversarial dual sampler. To represent this sampler, we introduce a novel neural architecture, dynamics embedding, that generalizes Hamiltonian Monte-Carlo (HMC). The proposed approach inherits the flexibility of HMC while enabling tractable entropy estimation for the augmented model. By learning both a dual sampler and the primal model simultaneously, and sharing parameters between them, we obviate the requirement to design a separate sampling procedure once the model has been trained, leading to more effective learning.

Inference, estimation, sampling and likelihood evaluation are four primary goals of probabilistic modeling. Practical considerations often force modeling approaches to make compromises between these objectives. We present a novel probabilistic learning framework, called Fenchel Mini-Max Learning (FML), that accommodates all four desiderata in a flexible and scalable manner. Our derivation is rooted in classical maximum likelihood estimation, and it overcomes a longstanding challenge that prevents unbiased estimation of unnormalized statistical models. By reformulating MLE as a mini-max game, FML enjoys an unbiased training objective that (i) does not explicitly involve the intractable normalizing constant and (ii) is directly amendable to stochastic gradient descent optimization.

Recent advances in optical voltage sensors have brought us closer to a critical goal in cellular neuroscience: imaging the full spatiotemporal voltage on a dendritic tree. However, current sensors and imaging approaches still face significant limitations in SNR and sampling frequency; therefore statistical denoising and interpolation methods remain critical for understanding single-trial spatiotemporal dendritic voltage dynamics. Previous denoising approaches were either based on an inadequate linear voltage model or scaled poorly to large trees. Here we introduce a scalable fully Bayesian approach. We develop a generative nonlinear model that requires few parameters per compartment of the cell but is nonetheless flexible enough to sample realistic spatiotemporal data.

In this paper, we provide a method to learn the directed structure of a Bayesian network using data. The data is accessed by making conditional probability queries to a black-box model. We introduce a notion of simplicity of representation of conditional probability tables for the nodes in the Bayesian network, that we call low rankness''. We connect this notion to the Fourier transformation of real valued set functions and propose a method which learns the exact directed structure of a low rank Bayesian network using very few queries. We formally prove that our method correctly recovers the true directed structure, runs in polynomial time and only needs polynomial samples with respect to the number of nodes.

Bayesian inference in state-space models is challenging due to high-dimensional state trajectories. A viable approach is particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (PMCMC), combining MCMC and sequential Monte Carlo to form exact approximations'' to otherwise-intractable MCMC methods. The performance of the approximation is limited to that of the exact method. We focus on particle Gibbs (PG) and particle Gibbs with ancestor sampling (PGAS), improving their performance beyond that of the ideal Gibbs sampler (which they approximate) by marginalizing out one or more parameters. This is possible when the parameter(s) has a conjugate prior relationship with the complete data likelihood.

We consider the problem of computing the maximum likelihood multivariate log-concave distribution for a set of points. Specifically, we present an algorithm which, given $n$ points in $\mathbb{R} d$ and an accuracy parameter $\eps 0$, runs in time $\poly(n,d,1/\eps),$ and returns a log-concave distribution which, with high probability, has the property that the likelihood of the $n$ points under the returned distribution is at most an additive $\eps$ less than the maximum likelihood that could be achieved via any log-concave distribution. This is the first computationally efficient (polynomial time) algorithm for this fundamental and practically important task. Our algorithm rests on a novel connection with exponential families: the maximum likelihood log-concave distribution belongs to a class of structured distributions which, while not an exponential family, locally'' possesses key properties of exponential families. This connection then allows the problem of computing the log-concave maximum likelihood distribution to be formulated as a convex optimization problem, and solved via an approximate first-order method.

The inherent noise of neural systems makes it difficult to construct models which accurately capture experimental measurements of their activity. While much research has been done on how to efficiently model neural activity with descriptive models such as linear-nonlinear-models (LN), Bayesian inference for mechanistic models has received considerably less attention. One reason for this is that these models typically lead to intractable likelihoods and thus make parameter inference difficult. Here, we develop an approximate Bayesian inference scheme for a fully stochastic, biophysically inspired model of glutamate release at the ribbon synapse, a highly specialized synapse found in different sensory systems. The model translates known structural features of the ribbon synapse into a set of stochastically coupled equations.

Sum-product networks (SPNs) are flexible density estimators and have received significant attention due to their attractive inference properties. While parameter learning in SPNs is well developed, structure learning leaves something to be desired: Even though there is a plethora of SPN structure learners, most of them are somewhat ad-hoc and based on intuition rather than a clear learning principle. In this paper, we introduce a well-principled Bayesian framework for SPN structure learning. The first is rather unproblematic and akin to neural network architecture validation. The second represents the effective structure of the SPN and needs to respect the usual structural constraints in SPN, i.e. completeness and decomposability.