In most of the transfer learning approaches to reinforcement learning (RL) the distribution over the tasks is assumed to be stationary. Therefore, the target and source tasks are i.i.d. samples of the same distribution. In the context of this work, we consider the problem of transferring value functions through a variational method when the distribution that generates the tasks is time-variant, proposing a solution that leverages this temporal structure inherent in the task generating process. Furthermore, by means of a finite-sample analysis, the previously mentioned solution is theoretically compared to its time-invariant version. Finally, we will provide an experimental evaluation of the proposed technique with three distinct temporal dynamics in three different RL environments.

Ising machines (IMs) are a potential breakthrough in the NP-hard problem of score-based Bayesian network (BN) learning. To utilize the power of IMs, encoding of BN learning into quadratic unconstrained binary optimization (QUBO) has been proposed using up to $\mathcal{O}(N^2)$ bits, for $N$ variables in BN and $M = 2$ parents each. However, this approach is usually infeasible owing to the upper bound of IM bits when $M \geq 3$. In this paper, we propose an efficient conversion method for BN learning into QUBO with a maximum of $\sum_n (\Lambda_n - 1) + \binom N2$ bits, for $\Lambda_n$ parent set candidates each. The advance selection of parent set candidates plays an essential role in reducing the number of required bits. We also develop a pre-processing algorithm based on the capabilities of a classification and regression tree (CART), which allows us to search for parent set candidates consistent with score minimization in a realistic timeframe.Our conversion method enables us to more significantly reduce the upper bound of the required bits in comparison to an existing method, and is therefore expected to make a significant contribution to the advancement of scalable score-based BN learning.

The unification of logic and probability is a long-standing concern in AI, and more generally, in the philosophy of science. In essence, logic provides an easy way to specify properties that must hold in every possible world, and probability allows us to further quantify the weight and ratio of the worlds that must satisfy a property. To that end, numerous developments have been undertaken, culminating in proposals such as probabilistic relational models. While this progress has been notable, a general-purpose first-order knowledge representation language to reason about probabilities and dynamics, including in continuous settings, is still to emerge. In this paper, we survey recent results pertaining to the integration of logic, probability and actions in the situation calculus, which is arguably one of the oldest and most well-known formalisms. We then explore reduction theorems and programming interfaces for the language. These results are motivated in the context of cognitive robotics (as envisioned by Reiter and his colleagues) for the sake of concreteness. Overall, the advantage of proving results for such a general language is that it becomes possible to adapt them to any special-purpose fragment, including but not limited to popular probabilistic relational models.

The goal of item response theoretic (IRT) models is to provide estimates of latent traits from binary observed indicators and at the same time to learn the item response functions (IRFs) that map from latent trait to observed response. However, in many cases observed behavior can deviate significantly from the parametric assumptions of traditional IRT models. Nonparametric IRT models overcome these challenges by relaxing assumptions about the form of the IRFs, but standard tools are unable to simultaneously estimate flexible IRFs and recover ability estimates for respondents. We propose a Bayesian nonparametric model that solves this problem by placing Gaussian process priors on the latent functions defining the IRFs. This allows us to simultaneously relax assumptions about the shape of the IRFs while preserving the ability to estimate latent traits. This in turn allows us to easily extend the model to further tasks such as active learning. GPIRT therefore provides a simple and intuitive solution to several longstanding problems in the IRT literature.

Classifying sequential data as early as and as accurately as possible is a challenging yet critical problem, especially when a sampling cost is high. One algorithm that achieves this goal is the sequential probability ratio test (SPRT), which is known as Bayes-optimal: it can keep the expected number of data samples as small as possible, given the desired error upper-bound. The SPRT has recently been found to be the best model that explains the activities of the neurons in the primate parietal cortex that are thought to mediate our complex decision-making processes. However, the original SPRT makes two critical assumptions that limit its application in real-world scenarios: (i) samples are independently and identically distributed, and (ii) the likelihood of the data being derived from each class can be calculated precisely. Here, we propose the SPRT-TANDEM, a deep neural network-based SPRT algorithm that overcomes the above two obstacles. The SPRT-TANDEM estimates the log-likelihood ratio of two alternative hypotheses by leveraging a novel Loss function for Log-Likelihood Ratio estimation (LLLR), while allowing for correlations up to $N (\in \mathbb{N})$ preceding samples. In tests on one original and two public video databases, Nosaic MNIST, UCF101, and SiW, the SPRT-TANDEM achieves statistically significantly better classification accuracy than other baseline classifiers, with a smaller number of data samples. The code and Nosaic MNIST are publicly available at https://github.com/TaikiMiyagawa/SPRT-TANDEM.

Message passing on a factor graph is a powerful paradigm for the coding of approximate inference algorithms for arbitrarily large graphical models. The notion of a factor graph fragment allows for compartmentalization of algebra and computer code. We show that the Inverse G-Wishart family of distributions enables fundamental variational message passing factor graph fragments to be expressed elegantly and succinctly. Such fragments arise in models for which approximate inference concerning covariance matrix or variance parameters is made, and are ubiquitous in contemporary statistics and machine learning. Keywords: Approximate Bayesian inference; G-Wishart distribution; mean field variational Bayes; scalable statistical methodology.

Explainable AI (XAI) aims to provide interpretations for predictions made by learning machines, such as deep neural networks, in order to make the machines more transparent for the user and furthermore trustworthy also for applications in e.g. safety-critical areas. So far, however, no methods for quantifying uncertainties of explanations have been conceived, which is problematic in domains where a high confidence in explanations is a prerequisite. We therefore contribute by proposing a new framework that allows to convert any arbitrary explanation method for neural networks into an explanation method for Bayesian neural networks, with an in-built modeling of uncertainties. Within the Bayesian framework a network's weights follow a distribution that extends standard single explanation scores and heatmaps to distributions thereof, in this manner translating the intrinsic network model uncertainties into a quantification of explanation uncertainties. This allows us for the first time to carve out uncertainties associated with a model explanation and subsequently gauge the appropriate level of explanation confidence for a user (using percentiles). We demonstrate the effectiveness and usefulness of our approach extensively in various experiments, both qualitatively and quantitatively.

Gaussian process regression is a popular Bayesian framework for surrogate modeling of expensive data sources. As part of a broader effort in scientific machine learning, many recent works have incorporated physical constraints or other a priori information within Gaussian process regression to supplement limited data and regularize the behavior of the model. We provide an overview and survey of several classes of Gaussian process constraints, including positivity or bound constraints, monotonicity and convexity constraints, differential equation constraints provided by linear PDEs, and boundary condition constraints. We compare the strategies behind each approach as well as the differences in implementation, concluding with a discussion of the computational challenges introduced by constraints.

The task of subgroup discovery (SD) is to find interpretable descriptions of subsets of a dataset that stand out with respect to a target attribute. To address the problem of mining large numbers of redundant subgroups, subgroup set discovery (SSD) has been proposed. State-of-the-art SSD methods have their limitations though, as they typically heavily rely on heuristics and/or user-chosen hyperparameters. We propose a dispersion-aware problem formulation for subgroup set discovery that is based on the minimum description length (MDL) principle and subgroup lists. We argue that the best subgroup list is the one that best summarizes the data given the overall distribution of the target. We restrict our focus to a single numeric target variable and show that our formalization coincides with an existing quality measure when finding a single subgroup, but that-in addition-it allows to trade off subgroup quality with the complexity of the subgroup. We next propose SSD++, a heuristic algorithm for which we empirically demonstrate that it returns outstanding subgroup lists: non-redundant sets of compact subgroups that stand out by having strongly deviating means and small spread.

When images are statistically described by a generative model we can use this information to develop optimum techniques for various image restoration problems as inpainting, super-resolution, image coloring, generative model inversion, etc. With the help of the generative model it is possible to formulate, in a natural way, these restoration problems as Statistical estimation problems. Our approach, by combining maximum a-posteriori probability with maximum likelihood estimation, is capable of restoring images that are distorted by transformations even when the latter contain unknown parameters. The resulting optimization is completely defined with no parameters requiring tuning. This must be compared with the current state of the art which requires exact knowledge of the transformations and contains regularizer terms with weights that must be properly defined. Finally, we must mention that we extend our method to accommodate mixtures of multiple images where each image is described by its own generative model and we are able of successfully separating each participating image from a single mixture.