We introduce a class of acquisition functions for sample selection that leads to faster convergence in applications related to Bayesian experimental design and uncertainty quantification. The approach follows the paradigm of active learning, whereby existing samples of a black-box function are utilized to optimize the next most informative sample. The proposed method aims to take advantage of the fact that some input directions of the black-box function have a larger impact on the output than others, which is important especially for systems exhibiting rare and extreme events. The acquisition functions introduced in this work leverage the properties of the likelihood ratio, a quantity that acts as a probabilistic sampling weight and guides the active-learning algorithm towards regions of the input space that are deemed most relevant. We demonstrate superiority of the proposed approach in the uncertainty quantification of a hydrological system as well as the probabilistic quantification of rare events in dynamical systems and the identification of their precursors.

We introduce a new incremental preference elicitation procedure able to deal with noisy responses of a Decision Maker (DM). The originality of the contribution is to propose a Bayesian approach for determining a preferred solution in a multiobjective decision problem involving a combinatorial set of alternatives. We assume that the preferences of the DM are represented by an aggregation function whose parameters are unknown and that the uncertainty about them is represented by a density function on the parameter space. Pairwise comparison queries are used to reduce this uncertainty (by Bayesian revision). The query selection strategy is based on the solution of a mixed integer linear program with a combinatorial set of variables and constraints, which requires to use columns and constraints generation methods. Numerical tests are provided to show the practicability of the approach.

This paper applies probabilistic model checking techniques for discrete Markov chains to inference in Bayesian networks. We present a simple translation from Bayesian networks into tree-like Markov chains such that inference can be reduced to computing reachability probabilities. Using a prototypical implementation on top of the Storm model checker, we show that symbolic data structures such as multi-terminal BDDs (MTBDDs) are very effective to perform inference on large Bayesian network benchmarks. We compare our result to inference using probabilistic sentential decision diagrams and vtrees, a scalable symbolic technique in AI inference tools.

We consider stochastic systems of interacting particles or agents, with dynamics determined by an interaction kernel which only depends on pairwise distances. We study the problem of inferring this interaction kernel from observations of the positions of the particles, in either continuous or discrete time, along multiple independent trajectories. We introduce a nonparametric inference approach to this inverse problem, based on a regularized maximum likelihood estimator constrained to suitable hypothesis spaces adaptive to data. We show that a coercivity condition enables us to control the condition number of this problem and prove the consistency of our estimator, and that in fact it converges at a near-optimal learning rate, equal to the min-max rate of $1$-dimensional non-parametric regression. In particular, this rate is independent of the dimension of the state space, which is typically very high. We also analyze the discretization errors in the case of discrete-time observations, showing that it is of order $1/2$ in terms of the time gaps between observations. This term, when large, dominates the sampling error and the approximation error, preventing convergence of the estimator. Finally, we exhibit an efficient parallel algorithm to construct the estimator from data, and we demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithm with numerical tests on prototype systems including stochastic opinion dynamics and a Lennard-Jones model.

We unify empirical Bayes and variational Bayes for approximating unnormalized densities. This framework, named unnormalized variational Bayes (UVB), is based on formulating a latent variable model for the random variable $Y=X+N(0,\sigma^2 I_d)$ and using the evidence lower bound (ELBO), computed by a variational autoencoder, as a parametrization of the energy function of $Y$ which is then used to estimate $X$ with the empirical Bayes least-squares estimator. In this intriguing setup, the $\textit{gradient}$ of the ELBO with respect to noisy inputs plays the central role in learning the energy function. Empirically, we demonstrate that UVB has a higher capacity to approximate energy functions than the parametrization with MLPs as done in neural empirical Bayes (DEEN). We especially showcase $\sigma=1$, where the differences between UVB and DEEN become visible and qualitative in the denoising experiments. For this high level of noise, the distribution of $Y$ is very smoothed and we demonstrate that one can traverse in a single run $-$ without a restart $-$ all MNIST classes in a variety of styles via walk-jump sampling with a fast-mixing Langevin MCMC sampler. We finish by probing the encoder/decoder of the trained models and confirm UVB $\neq$ VAE.

The aim of improvements in data driven exercises in insurance has led to the desire to gather additional data than traditionally available. In addition to underwriting characteristics such as age, gender and address, technology now allows the collection of many more variables. Examples include dynamic data from sensors for driving behaviour in vehicles, appliance and electrical usage in homes and static data from external databases on traffic violations, crime scores or credit scores. High dimensional models arise if modelling sensor data at multiple time points and the individual variables that comprise summary scores. Reasoning with a large number of variables can become unnecessarily complex without any actuarial judgment. For example, it may not be necessary to include hundreds of rating factors as predictors if many of them are known to be related or unnecessary. This discussion proposes the use of graph theory as a means of translating intuitive reasoning to mathematical properties. This is done via graphical models, which involve the use of graph theory to formulate probabilistic models (Lauritzen, 1996). The approach has been used in applications such as medical expert systems (Franklin et al., 1989), natural language processing (Blei et al., 2003), image processing, bioinformatics and others (Wainwright and Jordan, 2008).

A central capability of a long-lived reinforcement learning (RL) agent is to incrementally adapt its behavior as its environment changes, and to incrementally build upon previous experiences to facilitate future learning in real-world scenarios. In this paper, we propose LifeLong Incremental Reinforcement Learning (LLIRL), a new incremental algorithm for efficient lifelong adaptation to dynamic environments. We develop and maintain a library that contains an infinite mixture of parameterized environment models, which is equivalent to clustering environment parameters in a latent space. The prior distribution over the mixture is formulated as a Chinese restaurant process (CRP), which incrementally instantiates new environment models without any external information to signal environmental changes in advance. During lifelong learning, we employ the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm with online Bayesian inference to update the mixture in a fully incremental manner. In EM, the E-step involves estimating the posterior expectation of environment-to-cluster assignments, while the M-step updates the environment parameters for future learning. This method allows for all environment models to be adapted as necessary, with new models instantiated for environmental changes and old models retrieved when previously seen environments are encountered again. Experiments demonstrate that LLIRL outperforms relevant existing methods, and enables effective incremental adaptation to various dynamic environments for lifelong learning.

In multimedia forensics, learning-based methods provide state-of-the-art performance in determining origin and authenticity of images and videos. However, most existing methods are challenged by out-of-distribution data, i.e., with characteristics that are not covered in the training set. This makes it difficult to know when to trust a model, particularly for practitioners with limited technical background. In this work, we make a first step toward redesigning forensic algorithms with a strong focus on reliability. To this end, we propose to use Bayesian neural networks (BNN), which combine the power of deep neural networks with the rigorous probabilistic formulation of a Bayesian framework. Instead of providing a point estimate like standard neural networks, BNNs provide distributions that express both the estimate and also an uncertainty range. We demonstrate the usefulness of this framework on a classical forensic task: resampling detection. The BNN yields state-of-the-art detection performance, plus excellent capabilities for detecting out-of-distribution samples. This is demonstrated for three pathologic issues in resampling detection, namely unseen resampling factors, unseen JPEG compression, and unseen resampling algorithms. We hope that this proposal spurs further research toward reliability in multimedia forensics.

The goal of neural-symbolic computation is to integrate the connectionist and symbolist paradigms. Prior methods learn the neural-symbolic models using reinforcement learning (RL) approaches, which ignore the error propagation in the symbolic reasoning module and thus converge slowly with sparse rewards. In this paper, we address these issues and close the loop of neural-symbolic learning by (1) introducing the \textbf{grammar} model as a \textit{symbolic prior} to bridge neural perception and symbolic reasoning, and (2) proposing a novel \textbf{back-search} algorithm which mimics the top-down human-like learning procedure to propagate the error through the symbolic reasoning module efficiently. We further interpret the proposed learning framework as maximum likelihood estimation using Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling and the back-search algorithm as a Metropolis-Hastings sampler. The experiments are conducted on two weakly-supervised neural-symbolic tasks: (1) handwritten formula recognition on the newly introduced HWF dataset; (2) visual question answering on the CLEVR dataset. The results show that our approach significantly outperforms the RL methods in terms of performance, converging speed, and data efficiency. Our code and data are released at \url{https://liqing-ustc.github.io/NGS}.

One of the primary goals of systems neuroscience is to relate the structure of neural circuits to their function, yet patterns of connectivity are difficult to establish when recording from large populations in behaving organisms. Many previous approaches have attempted to estimate functional connectivity between neurons using statistical modeling of observational data, but these approaches rely heavily on parametric assumptions and are purely correlational. Recently, however, holographic photostimulation techniques have made it possible to precisely target selected ensembles of neurons, offering the possibility of establishing direct causal links. A naive method for inferring functional connections is to stimulate each individual neuron multiple times and observe the responses of cells in the local network, but this approach scales poorly with the number of neurons. Here, we propose a method based on noisy group testing that drastically increases the efficiency of this process in sparse networks. By stimulating small ensembles of neurons, we show that it is possible to recover binarized network connectivity with a number of tests that grows only logarithmically with population size under minimal statistical assumptions. Moreover, we prove that our approach, which reduces to an efficiently solvable convex optimization problem, is equivalent to Variational Bayesian inference on the binary connection weights, and we derive rigorous bounds on the posterior marginals. This allows us to extend our method to the streaming setting, where continuously updated posteriors allow for optional stopping, and we demonstrate the feasibility of inferring connectivity for networks of up to tens of thousands of neurons online.