We propose a generative Causal Adversarial Network (CAN) for learning and sampling from conditional and interventional distributions. In contrast to the existing CausalGAN which requires the causal graph to be given, our proposed framework learns the causal relations from the data and generates samples accordingly. The proposed CAN comprises a two-fold process namely Label Generation Network (LGN) and Conditional Image Generation Network (CIGN). The LGN is a GAN-based architecture which learns and samples from the causal model over labels. The sampled labels are then fed to CIGN, a conditional GAN architecture, which learns the relationships amongst labels and pixels and pixels themselves and generates samples based on them. This framework is equipped with an intervention mechanism which enables. the model to generate samples from interventional distributions. We quantitatively and qualitatively assess the performance of CAN and empirically show that our model is able to generate both interventional and conditional samples without having access to the causal graph for the application of face generation on CelebA data.

Contact-tracing is an essential tool in order to mitigate the impact of pandemic such as the COVID-19. In order to achieve efficient and scalable contact-tracing in real time, digital devices can play an important role. While a lot of attention has been paid to analyzing the privacy and ethical risks of the associated mobile applications, so far much less research has been devoted to optimizing their performance and assessing their impact on the mitigation of the epidemic. We develop Bayesian inference methods to estimate the risk that an individual is infected. This inference is based on the list of his recent contacts and their own risk levels, as well as personal information such as results of tests or presence of syndromes. We propose to use probabilistic risk estimation in order to optimize testing and quarantining strategies for the control of an epidemic. Our results show that in some range of epidemic spreading (typically when the manual tracing of all contacts of infected people becomes practically impossible, but before the fraction of infected people reaches the scale where a lockdown becomes unavoidable), this inference of individuals at risk could be an efficient way to mitigate the epidemic. Our approaches translate into fully distributed algorithms that only require communication between individuals who have recently been in contact. Such communication may be encrypted and anonymized and thus compatible with privacy preserving standards. We conclude that probabilistic risk estimation is capable to enhance performance of digital contact tracing and should be considered in the currently developed mobile applications. Identifying, calling, testing, and if needed quarantining the recent contacts of an individual who has just been tested positive is the standard route for limiting the transmission of a highly contagious virus.

Computer Vision practitioners must thoroughly understand their model's performance, but conditional evaluation is complex and error-prone. In biometric verification, model performance over continuous covariates---real-number attributes of images that affect performance---is particularly challenging to study. We develop a generative model of the match and non-match score distributions over continuous covariates and perform inference with modern Bayesian methods. We use mixture models to capture arbitrary distributions and local basis functions to capture non-linear, multivariate trends. Three experiments demonstrate the accuracy and effectiveness of our approach. First, we study the relationship between age and face verification performance and find previous methods may overstate performance and confidence. Second, we study preprocessing for CNNs and find a highly non-linear, multivariate surface of model performance. Our method is accurate and data efficient when evaluated against previous synthetic methods. Third, we demonstrate the novel application of our method to pedestrian tracking and calculate variable thresholds and expected performance while controlling for multiple covariates.

Efficient feature selection from high-dimensional datasets is a very important challenge in many data-driven fields of science and engineering. We introduce a statistical mechanics inspired strategy that addresses the problem of sparse feature selection in the context of binary classification by leveraging a computational scheme known as expectation propagation (EP). The algorithm is used in order to train a continuous-weights perceptron learning a classification rule from a set of (possibly partly mislabeled) examples provided by a teacher perceptron with diluted continuous weights. We test the method in the Bayes optimal setting under a variety of conditions and compare it to other state-of-the-art algorithms based on message passing and on expectation maximization approximate inference schemes. Overall, our simulations show that EP is a robust and competitive algorithm in terms of variable selection properties, estimation accuracy and computationally complexity, especially when the student perceptron is trained from correlated patterns that prevent other iterative methods from converging. Furthermore, our numerical tests demonstrate that the algorithm is capable of learning online the unknown values of prior parameters, such as the dilution level of the weights of the teacher perceptron and the fraction of mislabeled examples, quite accurately. This is achieved by means of a simple maximum likelihood strategy that consists in minimizing the free energy associated with the EP algorithm.

This paper considers the problem of estimating the information leakage of a system in the black-box scenario. It is assumed that the system's internals are unknown to the learner, or anyway too complicated to analyze, and the only available information are pairs of input-output data samples, possibly obtained by submitting queries to the system or provided by a third party. Previous research has mainly focused on counting the frequencies to estimate the input-output conditional probabilities (referred to as frequentist approach), however this method is not accurate when the domain of possible outputs is large. To overcome this difficulty, the estimation of the Bayes error of the ideal classifier was recently investigated using Machine Learning (ML) models and it has been shown to be more accurate thanks to the ability of those models to learn the input-output correspondence. However, the Bayes vulnerability is only suitable to describe one-try attacks. A more general and flexible measure of leakage is the g-vulnerability, which encompasses several different types of adversaries, with different goals and capabilities. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to perform black-box estimation of the g-vulnerability using ML. A feature of our approach is that it does not require to estimate the conditional probabilities, and that it is suitable for a large class of ML algorithms. First, we formally show the learnability for all data distributions. Then, we evaluate the performance via various experiments using k-Nearest Neighbors and Neural Networks. Our results outperform the frequentist approach when the observables domain is large.

The project management field has the imperative to increase the project probability of success. Experts have developed several project management maturity models to assets and improve the project outcome. However, the current literature lacks of models allowing correlating the measured maturity and the expected probability of success. This paper uses the characteristics of Bayesian networks to formalize experts' knowledge and to extract knowledge from a project overcost database. It develops a method to estimate the impact of project management maturity on the risk of project overcost. A general framework is presented. An industrial case is used to illustrate the application of the method.

Machine learning systems are increasingly being used to make impactful decisions such as loan applications and criminal justice risk assessments, and as such, ensuring fairness of these systems is critical. This is often challenging as the labels in the data are biased. This paper studies learning fair probability distributions from biased data by explicitly modeling a latent variable that represents a hidden, unbiased label. In particular, we aim to achieve demographic parity by enforcing certain independencies in the learned model. We also show that group fairness guarantees are meaningful only if the distribution used to provide those guarantees indeed captures the real-world data. In order to closely model the data distribution, we employ probabilistic circuits, an expressive and tractable probabilistic model, and propose an algorithm to learn them from incomplete data. We evaluate our approach on a synthetic dataset in which observed labels indeed come from fair labels but with added bias, and demonstrate that the fair labels are successfully retrieved. Moreover, we show on real-world datasets that our approach not only is a better model than existing methods of how the data was generated but also achieves competitive accuracy.

Finding objects is essential for almost any daily-life visual task. Saliency models have been useful to predict fixation locations in natural images, but are static, i.e., they provide no information about the time-sequence of fixations. Nowadays, one of the biggest challenges in the field is to go beyond saliency maps to predict a sequence of fixations related to a visual task, such as searching for a given target. Bayesian observer models have been proposed for this task, as they represent visual search as an active sampling process. Nevertheless, they were mostly evaluated on artificial images, and how they adapt to natural images remains largely unexplored. Here, we propose a unified Bayesian model for visual search guided by saliency maps as prior information. We validated our model with a visual search experiment in natural scenes recording eye movements. We show that, although state-of-the-art saliency models perform well in predicting the first two fixations in a visual search task, their performance degrades to chance afterward. This suggests that saliency maps alone are good to model bottom-up first impressions, but are not enough to explain the scanpaths when top-down task information is critical. Thus, we propose to use them as priors of Bayesian searchers. This approach leads to a behavior very similar to humans for the whole scanpath, both in the percentage of target found as a function of the fixation rank and the scanpath similarity, reproducing the entire sequence of eye movements.

Knowledge graphs (KGs) are of great importance to many real world applications, but they generally suffer from incomplete information in the form of missing relations between entities. Knowledge graph completion (also known as relation prediction) is the task of inferring missing facts given existing ones. Most of the existing work is proposed by maximizing the likelihood of observed instance-level triples. Not much attention, however, is paid to the ontological information, such as type information of entities and relations. In this work, we propose a type-augmented relation prediction (TaRP) method, where we apply both the type information and instance-level information for relation prediction. In particular, type information and instance-level information are encoded as prior probabilities and likelihoods of relations respectively, and are combined by following Bayes' rule. Our proposed TaRP method achieves significantly better performance than state-of-the-art methods on three benchmark datasets: FB15K, YAGO26K-906, and DB111K-174. In addition, we show that TaRP achieves significantly improved data efficiency. More importantly, the type information extracted from a specific dataset can generalize well to other datasets through the proposed TaRP model.

Neural dialogue response generation has gained much popularity in recent years. Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) objective is widely adopted in existing dialogue model learning. However, models trained with MLE objective function are plagued by the low-diversity issue when it comes to the open-domain conversational setting. Inspired by the observation that humans not only learn from the positive signals but also benefit from correcting behaviors of undesirable actions, in this work, we introduce contrastive learning into dialogue generation, where the model explicitly perceives the difference between the well-chosen positive and negative utterances. Specifically, we employ a pretrained baseline model as a reference. During contrastive learning, the target dialogue model is trained to give higher conditional probabilities for the positive samples, and lower conditional probabilities for those negative samples, compared to the reference model. To manage the multi-mapping relations prevailed in human conversation, we augment contrastive dialogue learning with group-wise dual sampling. Extensive experimental results show that the proposed group-wise contrastive learning framework is suited for training a wide range of neural dialogue generation models with very favorable performance over the baseline training approaches.