The problem of monotone missing data has been broadly studied during the last two decades and has many applications in different fields such as bioinformatics or statistics. Commonly used imputation techniques require multiple iterations through the data before yielding convergence. Moreover, those approaches may introduce extra noises and biases to the subsequent modeling. In this work, we derive exact formulas and propose a novel algorithm to compute the maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) of a multiple class, monotone missing dataset when all the covariance matrices of all categories are assumed to be equal, namely EPEM. We then illustrate an application of our proposed methods in Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA). As the computation is exact, our EPEM algorithm does not require multiple iterations through the data as other imputation approaches, thus promising to handle much less time-consuming than other methods. This effectiveness was validated by empirical results when EPEM reduced the error rates significantly and required a short computation time compared to several imputation-based approaches. We also release all codes and data of our experiments in one GitHub repository to contribute to the research community related to this problem.

Extreme multi-label classification (XMLC) is a learning task of tagging instances with a small subset of relevant labels chosen from an extremely large pool of possible labels. Problems of this scale can be efficiently handled by organizing labels as a tree, like in hierarchical softmax used for multi-class problems. In this paper, we thoroughly investigate probabilistic label trees (PLTs) which can be treated as a generalization of hierarchical softmax for multi-label problems. We first introduce the PLT model and discuss training and inference procedures and their computational costs. Next, we prove the consistency of PLTs for a wide spectrum of performance metrics. To this end, we upperbound their regret by a function of surrogate-loss regrets of node classifiers. Furthermore, we consider a problem of training PLTs in a fully online setting, without any prior knowledge of training instances, their features, or labels. In this case, both node classifiers and the tree structure are trained online. We prove a specific equivalence between the fully online algorithm and an algorithm with a tree structure given in advance. Finally, we discuss several implementations of PLTs and introduce a new one, napkinXC, which we empirically evaluate and compare with state-of-the-art algorithms.

The expressive power of Bayesian kernel-based methods has led them to become an important tool across many different facets of artificial intelligence, and useful to a plethora of modern application domains, providing both power and interpretability via uncertainty analysis. This article introduces and discusses two methods which straddle the areas of probabilistic Bayesian schemes and kernel methods for regression: Gaussian Processes and Relevance Vector Machines. Our focus is on developing a common framework with which to view these methods, via intermediate methods a probabilistic version of the well-known kernel ridge regression, and drawing connections among them, via dual formulations, and discussion of their application in the context of major tasks: regression, smoothing, interpolation, and filtering. Overall, we provide understanding of the mathematical concepts behind these models, and we summarize and discuss in depth different interpretations and highlight the relationship to other methods, such as linear kernel smoothers, Kalman filtering and Fourier approximations. Throughout, we provide numerous figures to promote understanding, and we make numerous recommendations to practitioners. Benefits and drawbacks of the different techniques are highlighted. To our knowledge, this is the most in-depth study of its kind to date focused on these two methods, and will be relevant to theoretical understanding and practitioners throughout the domains of data-science, signal processing, machine learning, and artificial intelligence in general.

Bayesian nonparametrics based on completely random measures (CRMs) offers a flexible modeling approach when the number of clusters or latent components in a dataset is unknown. However, managing the infinite dimensionality of CRMs often leads to slow computation. Practical inference typically relies on either integrating out the infinite-dimensional parameter or using a finite approximation: a truncated finite approximation (TFA) or an independent finite approximation (IFA). The atom weights of TFAs are constructed sequentially, while the atoms of IFAs are independent, which (1) make them well-suited for parallel and distributed computation and (2) facilitates more convenient inference schemes. While IFAs have been developed in certain special cases in the past, there has not yet been a general template for construction or a systematic comparison to TFAs. We show how to construct IFAs for approximating distributions in a large family of CRMs, encompassing all those typically used in practice. We quantify the approximation error between IFAs and the target nonparametric prior, and prove that, in the worst-case, TFAs provide more component-efficient approximations than IFAs. However, in experiments on image denoising and topic modeling tasks with real data, we find that the error of Bayesian approximation methods overwhelms any finite approximation error, and IFAs perform very similarly to TFAs.

We consider online change detection of high dimensional data streams with sparse changes, where only a subset of data streams can be observed at each sensing time point due to limited sensing capacities. On the one hand, the detection scheme should be able to deal with partially observable data and meanwhile have efficient detection power for sparse changes. On the other, the scheme should be able to adaptively and actively select the most important variables to observe to maximize the detection power. To address these two points, in this paper, we propose a novel detection scheme called CDSSD. In particular, it describes the structure of high dimensional data with sparse changes by smooth-sparse decomposition, whose parameters can be learned via spike-slab variational Bayesian inference. Then the posterior Bayes factor, which incorporates the learned parameters and sparse change information, is formulated as a detection statistic. Finally, by formulating the statistic as the reward of a combinatorial multi-armed bandit problem, an adaptive sampling strategy based on Thompson sampling is proposed. The efficacy and applicability of our method in practice are demonstrated with numerical studies and a real case study.

Bayesian inference engines have become established as an important paradigm for inference in arbitrarily large and complex graphical models. Software platforms such as Infer.NET (Minka et al., 2018) and Stan (Carpenter et al., 2017) are instances of such Bayesian inference engines. They deliver approximate Bayesian inference, with varying degrees of inferential accuracy, by calling upon contemporary approaches such as expectation propagation, Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and variational approximation. The purpose of this short article is to show that effective and scalable probability density function estimation, or density estimation for short, can be achieved using Bayesian inference engines. We provide easy access for users of the R statistical computing environment (R Core Team, 2018) via a package named densEstBayes (Wand, 2020).

Causal effect identification considers whether an interventional probability distribution can be uniquely determined from a passively observed distribution in a given causal structure. If the generating system induces context-specific independence (CSI) relations, the existing identification procedures and criteria based on do-calculus are inherently incomplete. We show that deciding causal effect non-identifiability is NP-hard in the presence of CSIs. Motivated by this, we design a calculus and an automated search procedure for identifying causal effects in the presence of CSIs. The approach is provably sound and it includes standard do-calculus as a special case. With the approach we can obtain identifying formulas that were unobtainable previously, and demonstrate that a small number of CSI-relations may be sufficient to turn a previously non-identifiable instance to identifiable.

We propose a general framework to robustly characterize joint and conditional probability distributions via transport maps. Transport maps or "flows" deterministically couple two distributions via an expressive monotone transformation. Yet, learning the parameters of such transformations in high dimensions is challenging given few samples from the unknown target distribution, and structural choices for these transformations can have a significant impact on performance. Here we formulate a systematic framework for representing and learning monotone maps, via invertible transformations of smooth functions, and demonstrate that the associated minimization problem has a unique global optimum. Given a hierarchical basis for the appropriate function space, we propose a sample-efficient adaptive algorithm that estimates a sparse approximation for the map. We demonstrate how this framework can learn densities with stable generalization performance across a wide range of sample sizes on real-world datasets.

We propose a generative Causal Adversarial Network (CAN) for learning and sampling from conditional and interventional distributions. In contrast to the existing CausalGAN which requires the causal graph to be given, our proposed framework learns the causal relations from the data and generates samples accordingly. The proposed CAN comprises a two-fold process namely Label Generation Network (LGN) and Conditional Image Generation Network (CIGN). The LGN is a GAN-based architecture which learns and samples from the causal model over labels. The sampled labels are then fed to CIGN, a conditional GAN architecture, which learns the relationships amongst labels and pixels and pixels themselves and generates samples based on them. This framework is equipped with an intervention mechanism which enables. the model to generate samples from interventional distributions. We quantitatively and qualitatively assess the performance of CAN and empirically show that our model is able to generate both interventional and conditional samples without having access to the causal graph for the application of face generation on CelebA data.

Contact-tracing is an essential tool in order to mitigate the impact of pandemic such as the COVID-19. In order to achieve efficient and scalable contact-tracing in real time, digital devices can play an important role. While a lot of attention has been paid to analyzing the privacy and ethical risks of the associated mobile applications, so far much less research has been devoted to optimizing their performance and assessing their impact on the mitigation of the epidemic. We develop Bayesian inference methods to estimate the risk that an individual is infected. This inference is based on the list of his recent contacts and their own risk levels, as well as personal information such as results of tests or presence of syndromes. We propose to use probabilistic risk estimation in order to optimize testing and quarantining strategies for the control of an epidemic. Our results show that in some range of epidemic spreading (typically when the manual tracing of all contacts of infected people becomes practically impossible, but before the fraction of infected people reaches the scale where a lockdown becomes unavoidable), this inference of individuals at risk could be an efficient way to mitigate the epidemic. Our approaches translate into fully distributed algorithms that only require communication between individuals who have recently been in contact. Such communication may be encrypted and anonymized and thus compatible with privacy preserving standards. We conclude that probabilistic risk estimation is capable to enhance performance of digital contact tracing and should be considered in the currently developed mobile applications. Identifying, calling, testing, and if needed quarantining the recent contacts of an individual who has just been tested positive is the standard route for limiting the transmission of a highly contagious virus.