We address the problem of building theoretical models that help elucidate the function of the visual brain at computational/algorithmic and structural/mechanistic levels. We seek to understand how the receptive fields and topographic maps found in visual cortical areas relate to underlying computational desiderata. We view the development of sensory systems from the popular perspective of probability density estimation; this is motivated by the notion that an effective internal representational scheme is likely to reflect the statistical structure of the environment in which an organism lives. We apply biologically based constraints on elements of the model. The thesis begins by surveying the relevant literature from the fields of neurobiology, theoretical neuroscience, and machine learning. After this review we present our main theoretical and algorithmic developments: we propose a class of probabilistic models, which we refer to as "energy-based models", and show equivalences between this framework and various other types of probabilistic model such as Markov random fields and factor graphs; we also develop and discuss approximate algorithms for performing maximum likelihood learning and inference in our energy based models. The rest of the thesis is then concerned with exploring specific instantiations of such models. By performing constrained optimisation of model parameters to maximise the likelihood of appropriate, naturalistic datasets we are able to qualitatively reproduce many of the receptive field and map properties found in vivo, whilst simultaneously learning about statistical regularities in the data.

While uncertainty estimation is a well-studied topic in deep learning, most such work focuses on marginal uncertainty estimates, i.e. the predictive mean and variance at individual input locations. But it is often more useful to estimate predictive correlations between the function values at different input locations. In this paper, we consider the problem of benchmarking how accurately Bayesian models can estimate predictive correlations. We first consider a downstream task which depends on posterior predictive correlations: transductive active learning (TAL). We find that TAL makes better use of models' uncertainty estimates than ordinary active learning, and recommend this as a benchmark for evaluating Bayesian models. Since TAL is too expensive and indirect to guide development of algorithms, we introduce two metrics which more directly evaluate the predictive correlations and which can be computed efficiently: meta-correlations (i.e. the correlations between the models correlation estimates and the true values), and cross-normalized likelihoods (XLL). We validate these metrics by demonstrating their consistency with TAL performance and obtain insights about the relative performance of current Bayesian neural net and Gaussian process models.

One of the main barriers to the broader adoption of algorithmic fairness in machine learning is the trade-off between fairness and performance of ML models: many practitioners are unwilling to sacrifice the performance of their ML model for fairness. In this paper, we show that this trade-off may not be necessary. If the algorithmic biases in an ML model are due to sampling biases in the training data, then enforcing algorithmic fairness may improve the performance of the ML model on unbiased test data. We study conditions under which enforcing algorithmic fairness helps practitioners learn the Bayes decision rule for (unbiased) test data from biased training data. We also demonstrate the practical implications of our theoretical results in real-world ML tasks.

Calibrated estimates of uncertainty are critical for many real-world computer vision applications of deep learning. While there are several widely-used uncertainty estimation methods, dropout inference stands out for its simplicity and efficacy. This technique, however, requires multiple forward passes through the network during inference and therefore can be too resource-intensive to be deployed in real-time applications. We propose a simple, easy-to-optimize distillation method for learning the conditional predictive distribution of a pre-trained dropout model for fast, sample-free uncertainty estimation in computer vision tasks. We empirically test the effectiveness of the proposed method on both semantic segmentation and depth estimation tasks and demonstrate our method can significantly reduce the inference time, enabling real-time uncertainty quantification, while achieving improved quality of both the uncertainty estimates and predictive performance over the regular dropout model.

In this paper we provide a new efficient algorithm for approximately computing the profile maximum likelihood (PML) distribution, a prominent quantity in symmetric property estimation. We provide an algorithm which matches the previous best known efficient algorithms for computing approximate PML distributions and improves when the number of distinct observed frequencies in the given instance is small. We achieve this result by exploiting new sparsity structure in approximate PML distributions and providing a new matrix rounding algorithm, of independent interest. Leveraging this result, we obtain the first provable computationally efficient implementation of PseudoPML, a general framework for estimating a broad class of symmetric properties. Additionally, we obtain efficient PML-based estimators for distributions with small profile entropy, a natural instance-based complexity measure. Further, we provide a simpler and more practical PseudoPML implementation that matches the best-known theoretical guarantees of such an estimator and evaluate this method empirically.

While deep neural networks provide good performance for a range of challenging tasks, calibration and uncertainty estimation remain major challenges. In this paper, we propose the amortized conditional normalized maximum likelihood (ACNML) method as a scalable general-purpose approach for uncertainty estimation, calibration, and out-of-distribution robustness with deep networks. Our algorithm builds on the conditional normalized maximum likelihood (CNML) coding scheme, which has minimax optimal properties according to the minimum description length principle, but is computationally intractable to evaluate exactly for all but the simplest of model classes. We propose to use approximate Bayesian inference technqiues to produce a tractable approximation to the CNML distribution. Our approach can be combined with any approximate inference algorithm that provides tractable posterior densities over model parameters. We demonstrate that ACNML compares favorably to a number of prior techniques for uncertainty estimation in terms of calibration on out-of-distribution inputs.

Loss functions are a cornerstone of machine learning and the starting point of most algorithms. Statistics and Bayesian decision theory have contributed, via properness, to elicit over the past decades a wide set of admissible losses in supervised learning, to which most popular choices belong (logistic, square, Matsushita, etc.). Rather than making a potentially biased ad hoc choice of the loss, there has recently been a boost in efforts to fit the loss to the domain at hand while training the model itself. The key approaches fit a canonical link, a function which monotonically relates the closed unit interval to R and can provide a proper loss via integration. In this paper, we rely on a broader view of proper composite losses and a recent construct from information geometry, source functions, whose fitting alleviates constraints faced by canonical links. We introduce a trick on squared Gaussian Processes to obtain a random process whose paths are compliant source functions with many desirable properties in the context of link estimation. Experimental results demonstrate substantial improvements over the state of the art.

Classical statistics is said to follow the frequentist approach because it interprets probability as the relative frequency of an event over the long run that is, after observing many trials. In the context of probabilities, an event is a combination of one or more elementary outcomes of an experiment, such as any of six equal results in rolls of two dice or an asset price dropping by 10 percent or more on a given day.

Transformation-based methods have been an attractive approach in non-parametric inference for problems such as unconditional and conditional density estimation due to their unique hierarchical structure that models the data as flexible transformation of a set of common latent variables. More recently, transformation-based models have been used in variational inference (VI) to construct flexible implicit families of variational distributions. However, their use in both non-parametric inference and variational inference lacks theoretical justification. We provide theoretical justification for the use of non-linear latent variable models (NL-LVMs) in non-parametric inference by showing that the support of the transformation induced prior in the space of densities is sufficiently large in the $L_1$ sense. We also show that, when a Gaussian process (GP) prior is placed on the transformation function, the posterior concentrates at the optimal rate up to a logarithmic factor. Adopting the flexibility demonstrated in the non-parametric setting, we use the NL-LVM to construct an implicit family of variational distributions, deemed GP-IVI. We delineate sufficient conditions under which GP-IVI achieves optimal risk bounds and approximates the true posterior in the sense of the Kullback-Leibler divergence. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work on providing theoretical guarantees for implicit variational inference.

A structural causal model is made of endogenous (manifest) and exogenous (latent) variables. In a recent paper, it has been shown that endogenous observations induce linear constraints on the probabilities of the exogenous variables. This allows to exactly map a causal model into a \emph{credal network}. Causal inferences, such as interventions and counterfactuals, can consequently be obtained by standard credal network algorithms. These natively return sharp values in the identifiable case, while intervals corresponding to the exact bounds are produced for unidentifiable queries. In this paper we present an approximate characterization of the constraints on the exogenous probabilities. This is based on a specialization of the EM algorithm to the treatment of the missing values in the exogenous observations. Multiple EM runs can be consequently used to describe the causal model as a set of Bayesian networks and, hence, a credal network to be queried for the bounding of unidentifiable queries. Preliminary empirical tests show how this approach might provide good inner bounds with relatively few runs. This is a promising direction for causal analysis in models whose topology prevents a straightforward specification of the credal mapping.