The number of emergencies have increased over the years with the growth in urbanization. This pattern has overwhelmed the emergency services with limited resources and demands the optimization of response processes. It is partly due to traditional `reactive' approach of emergency services to collect data about incidents, where a source initiates a call to the emergency number (e.g., 911 in U.S.), delaying and limiting the potentially optimal response. Crowdsourcing platforms such as Waze provides an opportunity to develop a rapid, `proactive' approach to collect data about incidents through crowd-generated observational reports. However, the reliability of reporting sources and spatio-temporal uncertainty of the reported incidents challenge the design of such a proactive approach. Thus, this paper presents a novel method for emergency incident detection using noisy crowdsourced Waze data. We propose a principled computational framework based on Bayesian theory to model the uncertainty in the reliability of crowd-generated reports and their integration across space and time to detect incidents. Extensive experiments using data collected from Waze and the official reported incidents in Nashville, Tenessee in the U.S. show our method can outperform strong baselines for both F1-score and AUC. The application of this work provides an extensible framework to incorporate different noisy data sources for proactive incident detection to improve and optimize emergency response operations in our communities.

Understanding the uncertainty of a neural network's (NN) predictions is essential for many purposes. The Bayesian framework provides a principled approach to this, however applying it to NNs is challenging due to large numbers of parameters and data. Ensembling NNs provides an easily implementable, scalable method for uncertainty quantification, however, it has been criticised for not being Bayesian. This work proposes one modification to the usual process that we argue does result in approximate Bayesian inference; regularising parameters about values drawn from a distribution which can be set equal to the prior. A theoretical analysis of the procedure in a simplified setting suggests the recovered posterior is centred correctly but tends to have an underestimated marginal variance, and overestimated correlation. However, two conditions can lead to exact recovery. We argue that these conditions are partially present in NNs. Empirical evaluations demonstrate it has an advantage over standard ensembling, and is competitive with variational methods.

The motive behind Creating this repo is to feel the fear of mathematics and do what ever you want to do in Machine Learning, Deep Learning and other fields of AI . So, try this Code in your python notebook which is provided in edx Course. In this Repo you will also learn the Libraries which are essential like numpy, pandas, matplotlib... I am going to upload new material when i find those material useful, you can also help me in keeping this repo fresh. Selecting the right algorithm which includes giving considerations to accuracy, training time, model complexity, number of parameters and number of features.

In a number of data-driven applications such as detection of arrhythmia, interferometry or audio compression, observations are acquired indistinctly in the time or frequency domains: temporal observations allow us to study the spectral content of signals (e.g., audio), while frequency-domain observations are used to reconstruct temporal/spatial data (e.g., MRI). Classical approaches for spectral analysis rely either on i) a discretisation of the time and frequency domains, where the fast Fourier transform stands out as the \textit{de facto} off-the-shelf resource, or ii) stringent parametric models with closed-form spectra. However, the general literature fails to cater for missing observations and noise-corrupted data. Our aim is to address the lack of a principled treatment of data acquired indistinctly in the temporal and frequency domains in a way that is robust to missing or noisy observations, and that at the same time models uncertainty effectively. To achieve this aim, we first define a joint probabilistic model for the temporal and spectral representations of signals, to then perform a Bayesian model update in the light of observations, thus jointly reconstructing the complete (latent) time and frequency representations. The proposed model is analysed from a classical spectral analysis perspective, and its implementation is illustrated through intuitive examples. Lastly, we show that the proposed model is able to perform joint time and frequency reconstruction of real-world audio, healthcare and astronomy signals, while successfully dealing with missing data and handling uncertainty (noise) naturally against both classical and modern approaches for spectral estimation.

Linear Mixed Effects (LME) models have been widely applied in clustered data analysis in many areas including marketing research, clinical trials, and biomedical studies. Inference can be conducted using maximum likelihood approach if assuming Normal distributions on the random effects. However, in many applications of economy, business and medicine, it is often essential to impose constraints on the regression parameters after taking their real-world interpretations into account. Therefore, in this paper we extend the unconstrained LME models to allow for sign constraints on its overall coefficients. We propose to assume a symmetric doubly truncated Normal (SDTN) distribution on the random effects instead of the unconstrained Normal distribution which is often found in classical literature. With the aforementioned change, difficulty has dramatically increased as the exact distribution of the dependent variable becomes analytically intractable. We then develop likelihood-based approaches to estimate the unknown model parameters utilizing the approximation of its exact distribution. Hypothesis testing under the new model specification is also discussed and studied empirically. Simulation studies have shown that the proposed constrained model not only improves real-world interpretations of results, but also achieves satisfactory performance on model fits as compared to the existing model.

This article deals with the problem of distributed machine learning, in which agents update their models based on their local datasets, and aggregate the updated models collaboratively and in a fully decentralized manner. In this paper, we tackle the problem of information heterogeneity arising in multi-agent networks where the placement of informative agents plays a crucial role in the learning dynamics. Specifically, we propose BayGo, a novel fully decentralized joint Bayesian learning and graph optimization framework with proven fast convergence over a sparse graph. Under our framework, agents are able to learn and communicate with the most informative agent to their own learning. Unlike prior works, our framework assumes no prior knowledge of the data distribution across agents nor does it assume any knowledge of the true parameter of the system. The proposed alternating minimization based framework ensures global connectivity in a fully decentralized way while minimizing the number of communication links. We theoretically show that by optimizing the proposed objective function, the estimation error of the posterior probability distribution decreases exponentially at each iteration. Via extensive simulations, we show that our framework achieves faster convergence and higher accuracy compared to fully-connected and star topology graphs.

The framework of differential privacy (DP) upper bounds the information disclosure risk involved in using sensitive datasets for statistical analysis. A DP mechanism typically operates by adding carefully calibrated noise to the data release procedure. Generalized linear models (GLMs) are among the most widely used arms in data analyst's repertoire. In this work, with logistic and Poisson regression as running examples, we propose a generic noise-aware Bayesian framework to quantify the parameter uncertainty for a GLM at hand, given noisy sufficient statistics. We perform a tight privacy analysis and experimentally demonstrate that the posteriors obtained from our model, while adhering to strong privacy guarantees, are similar to the non-private posteriors.

We consider a commonly studied supervised classification of a synthetic dataset whose labels are generated by feeding a one-layer neural network with random iid inputs. We study the generalization performances of standard classifiers in the high-dimensional regime where $\alpha=n/d$ is kept finite in the limit of a high dimension $d$ and number of samples $n$. Our contribution is three-fold: First, we prove a formula for the generalization error achieved by $\ell_2$ regularized classifiers that minimize a convex loss. This formula was first obtained by the heuristic replica method of statistical physics. Secondly, focussing on commonly used loss functions and optimizing the $\ell_2$ regularization strength, we observe that while ridge regression performance is poor, logistic and hinge regression are surprisingly able to approach the Bayes-optimal generalization error extremely closely. As $\alpha \to \infty$ they lead to Bayes-optimal rates, a fact that does not follow from predictions of margin-based generalization error bounds. Third, we design an optimal loss and regularizer that provably leads to Bayes-optimal generalization error.

In recent times, neural networks have become a powerful tool for the analysis of complex and abstract data models. However, their introduction intrinsically increases our uncertainty about which features of the analysis are model-related and which are due to the neural network. This means that predictions by neural networks have biases which cannot be trivially distinguished from being due to the true nature of the creation and observation of data or not. In order to attempt to address such issues we discuss Bayesian neural networks: neural networks where the uncertainty due to the network can be characterised. In particular, we present the Bayesian statistical framework which allows us to categorise uncertainty in terms of the ingrained randomness of observing certain data and the uncertainty from our lack of knowledge about how data can be created and observed. In presenting such techniques we show how errors in prediction by neural networks can be obtained in principle, and provide the two favoured methods for characterising these errors. We will also describe how both of these methods have substantial pitfalls when put into practice, highlighting the need for other statistical techniques to truly be able to do inference when using neural networks.

Learning models of the environment from data is often viewed as an essential component to building intelligent reinforcement learning (RL) agents. The common practice is to separate the learning of the model from its use, by constructing a model of the environment's dynamics that correctly predicts the observed state transitions. In this paper we argue that the limited representational resources of model-based RL agents are better used to build models that are directly useful for value-based planning. As our main contribution, we introduce the principle of value equivalence: two models are value equivalent with respect to a set of functions and policies if they yield the same Bellman updates. We propose a formulation of the model learning problem based on the value equivalence principle and analyze how the set of feasible solutions is impacted by the choice of policies and functions. Specifically, we show that, as we augment the set of policies and functions considered, the class of value equivalent models shrinks, until eventually collapsing to a single point corresponding to a model that perfectly describes the environment. In many problems, directly modelling state-to-state transitions may be both difficult and unnecessary. By leveraging the value-equivalence principle one may find simpler models without compromising performance, saving computation and memory. We illustrate the benefits of value-equivalent model learning with experiments comparing it against more traditional counterparts like maximum likelihood estimation. More generally, we argue that the principle of value equivalence underlies a number of recent empirical successes in RL, such as Value Iteration Networks, the Predictron, Value Prediction Networks, TreeQN, and MuZero, and provides a first theoretical underpinning of those results.