This paper considers the problem of computing Bayesian estimates of both states and model parameters for nonlinear state-space models. Generally, this problem does not have a tractable solution and approximations must be utilised. In this work, a variational approach is used to provide an assumed density which approximates the desired, intractable, distribution. The approach is deterministic and results in an optimisation problem of a standard form. Due to the parametrisation of the assumed density selected first- and second-order derivatives are readily available which allows for efficient solutions. The proposed method is compared against state-of-the-art Hamiltonian Monte Carlo in two numerical examples.

For multimode processes, one has to establish local monitoring models corresponding to local modes. However, the significant features of previous modes may be catastrophically forgotten when a monitoring model for the current mode is built. It would result in an abrupt performance decrease. Is it possible to make local monitoring model remember the features of previous modes? Choosing the principal component analysis (PCA) as a basic monitoring model, we try to resolve this problem. A modified PCA algorithm is built with continual learning ability for monitoring multimode processes, which adopts elastic weight consolidation (EWC) to overcome catastrophic forgetting of PCA for successive modes. It is called PCA-EWC, where the significant features of previous modes are preserved when a PCA model is established for the current mode. The computational complexity and key parameters are discussed to further understand the relationship between PCA and the proposed algorithm. Numerical case study and a practical industrial system in China are employed to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

In a report published in Nature Communications, Hongliang Xin, associate professor of chemical engineering at Virginia Tech, and his team of researchers developed a Bayesian learning model of chemisorption, or Bayeschem for short, aiming to use artificial intelligence to unlock the nature of chemical bonding at catalyst surfaces. "It all comes down to how catalysts bind with molecules," said Xin. "The interaction has to be strong enough to break some chemical bonds at reasonably low temperatures, but not too strong that catalysts would be poisoned by reaction intermediates. This rule is known as the Sabatier principle in catalysis." Understanding how catalysts interact with different intermediates and determining how to control their bond strengths so that they are within that "goldilocks zone" is the key to designing efficient catalytic processes, Xin said. The research provides a tool for that purpose. Bayeschem works using Bayesian learning, a specific machine learning algorithm for inferring models from data.

The digital factory provides undoubtedly a great potential for future production systems in terms of efficiency and effectivity. A key aspect on the way to realize the digital copy of a real factory is the understanding of complex indoor environments on the basis of 3D data. In order to generate an accurate factory model including the major components, i.e. building parts, product assets and process details, the 3D data collected during digitalization can be processed with advanced methods of deep learning. In this work, we propose a fully Bayesian and an approximate Bayesian neural network for point cloud segmentation. This allows us to analyze how different ways of estimating uncertainty in these networks improve segmentation results on raw 3D point clouds. We achieve superior model performance for both, the Bayesian and the approximate Bayesian model compared to the frequentist one. This performance difference becomes even more striking when incorporating the networks' uncertainty in their predictions. For evaluation we use the scientific data set S3DIS as well as a data set, which was collected by the authors at a German automotive production plant. The methods proposed in this work lead to more accurate segmentation results and the incorporation of uncertainty information makes this approach especially applicable to safety critical applications.

Skew-Gaussian processes (SkewGPs) extend the multivariate Unified Skew-Normal distributions over finite dimensional vectors to distribution over functions. SkewGPs are more general and flexible than Gaussian processes, as SkewGPs may also represent asymmetric distributions. In a recent contribution we showed that SkewGP and probit likelihood are conjugate, which allows us to compute the exact posterior for non-parametric binary classification and preference learning. In this paper, we generalize previous results and we prove that SkewGP is conjugate with both the normal and affine probit likelihood, and more in general, with their product. This allows us to (i) handle classification, preference, numeric and ordinal regression, and mixed problems in a unified framework; (ii) derive closed-form expression for the corresponding posterior distributions. We show empirically that the proposed framework based on SkewGP provides better performance than Gaussian processes in active learning and Bayesian (constrained) optimization.

This year celebrates the 50th anniversary of the paper by Rudolf E. Kálmán that conferred upon the world, the remarkable idea of a Kalman Filter. In statistics and control theory, Kalman filtering, also known as linear quadratic estimation (LQE), is an algorithm that uses a series of measurements observed over time, containing statistical noise and other inaccuracies, producing estimates of unknown variables that tend to be more accurate than those based on a single measurement alone. This is achieved by estimating a joint probability distribution over the variables for each timeframe. The Kalman filter is ideally applied to understand the behaviour of systems that change or evolve over time. It is useful in situations where we might have uncertain information (i.e.

A unifying mathematical formulation is needed to move from one-off digital twins built through custom implementations to robust digital twin implementations at scale. This work proposes a probabilistic graphical model as a formal mathematical representation of a digital twin and its associated physical asset. We create an abstraction of the asset-twin system as a set of coupled dynamical systems, evolving over time through their respective state-spaces and interacting via observed data and control inputs. The formal definition of this coupled system as a probabilistic graphical model enables us to draw upon well-established theory and methods from Bayesian statistics, dynamical systems, and control theory. The declarative and general nature of the proposed digital twin model make it rigorous yet flexible, enabling its application at scale in a diverse range of application areas. We demonstrate how the model is instantiated as a Bayesian network to create a structural digital twin of an unmanned aerial vehicle. The graphical model foundation ensures that the digital twin creation and updating process is principled, repeatable, and able to scale to the calibration of an entire fleet of digital twins.

Decision making under uncertainty is critical to real-world, autonomous systems. Model Predictive Control (MPC) methods have demonstrated favorable performance in practice, but remain limited when dealing with complex probability distributions. In this paper, we propose a generalization of MPC that represents a multitude of solutions as posterior distributions. By casting MPC as a Bayesian inference problem, we employ variational methods for posterior computation, naturally encoding the complexity and multi-modality of the decision making problem. We propose a Stein variational gradient descent method to estimate the posterior directly over control parameters, given a cost function and observed state trajectories. We show that this framework leads to successful planning in challenging, non-convex optimal control problems.

Incomplete data are a common feature in many domains, from clinical trials to industrial applications. Bayesian networks (BNs) are often used in these domains because of their graphical and causal interpretations. BN parameter learning from incomplete data is usually implemented with the Expectation-Maximisation algorithm (EM), which computes the relevant sufficient statistics ("soft EM") using belief propagation. Similarly, the Structural Expectation-Maximisation algorithm (Structural EM) learns the network structure of the BN from those sufficient statistics using algorithms designed for complete data. However, practical implementations of parameter and structure learning often impute missing data ("hard EM") to compute sufficient statistics instead of using belief propagation, for both ease of implementation and computational speed. In this paper, we investigate the question: what is the impact of using imputation instead of belief propagation on the quality of the resulting BNs? From a simulation study using synthetic data and reference BNs, we find that it is possible to recommend one approach over the other in several scenarios based on the characteristics of the data. We then use this information to build a simple decision tree to guide practitioners in choosing the EM algorithm best suited to their problem.

The problem of multimodal clustering arises whenever the data are gathered with several physically different sensors. Observations from different modalities are not necessarily aligned in the sense there there is no obvious way to associate or to compare them in some common space. A solution may consist in considering multiple clustering tasks independently for each modality. The main difficulty with such an approach is to guarantee that the unimodal clusterings are mutually consistent. In this paper we show that multimodal clustering can be addressed within a novel framework, namely conjugate mixture models. These models exploit the explicit transformations that are often available between an unobserved parameter space (objects) and each one of the observation spaces (sensors). We formulate the problem as a likelihood maximization task and we derive the associated conjugate expectation-maximization algorithm. The convergence properties of the proposed algorithm are thoroughly investigated. Several local/global optimization techniques are proposed in order to increase its convergence speed. Two initialization strategies are proposed and compared. A consistent model-selection criterion is proposed. The algorithm and its variants are tested and evaluated within the task of 3D localization of several speakers using both auditory and visual data.