The growing integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) in distribution grids raises various reliability issues due to DER's uncertain and complex behaviors. With a large-scale DER penetration in distribution grids, traditional outage detection methods, which rely on customers report and smart meters' last gasp signals, will have poor performance, because the renewable generators and storages and the mesh structure in urban distribution grids can continue supplying power after line outages. To address these challenges, we propose a data-driven outage monitoring approach based on the stochastic time series analysis with a theoretical guarantee. Specifically, we prove via power flow analysis that the dependency of time-series voltage measurements exhibits significant statistical changes after line outages. This makes the theory on optimal change-point detection suitable to identify line outages. However, existing change point detection methods require post-outage voltage distribution, which is unknown in distribution systems. Therefore, we design a maximum likelihood estimator to directly learn the distribution parameters from voltage data. We prove that the estimated parameters-based detection also achieves the optimal performance, making it extremely useful for fast distribution grid outage identifications. Furthermore, since smart meters have been widely installed in distribution grids and advanced infrastructure (e.g., PMU) has not widely been available, our approach only requires voltage magnitude for quick outage identification. Simulation results show highly accurate outage identification in eight distribution grids with 14 configurations with and without DERs using smart meter data.

These subprocesses are interrelated, with mapping considered to be the pivotal process (Gentner, 1983). Mapping may play a role in retrieval, as mapping a target analog to multiple potential source analogs stored in memory can help identify one or more that seems promising; and the correspondences computed by mapping support subsequent inference and schema induction. Thus, because of its centrality to analogical reasoning, the present paper focuses on the process of mapping between two analogs. We also consider the possible role that mapping may play in analog retrieval. Computational Approaches to Analogy Computational models of analogy have been developed in both artificial intelligence (AI) and cognitive science over more than half a century (for a recent review and critical analysis, see Mitchell, 2021). These models differ in many ways, both in terms of basic assumptions about the constraints that define a "good" analogy for humans, and in the detailed algorithms that accomplish analogical reasoning. For our present purposes, two broad approaches can be distinguished. The first approach, which can be termed representation matching, combines mental representations of structured knowledge about each analog with a matching process that computes some form of relational similarity, yielding a set of correspondences between the elements of the two analogs. The structured knowledge about an analog is typically assumed to approximate the content of propositions expressed in predicate calculus; e.g., the instantiated relation "hammer hits nail" might be coded as hit (hammer, nail).

Recently, there are unprecedented data growth originating from different online platforms which contribute to big data in terms of volume, velocity, variety and veracity (4Vs). Given this nature of big data which is unstructured, performing analytics to extract meaningful information is currently a great challenge to big data analytics. Collecting and analyzing unstructured textual data allows decision makers to study the escalation of comments/posts on our social media platforms. Hence, there is need for automatic big data analysis to overcome the noise and the non-reliability of these unstructured dataset from the digital media platforms. However, current machine learning algorithms used are performance driven focusing on the classification/prediction accuracy based on known properties learned from the training samples. With the learning task in a large dataset, most machine learning models are known to require high computational cost which eventually leads to computational complexity. In this work, two supervised machine learning algorithms are combined with text mining techniques to produce a hybrid model which consists of Na\"ive Bayes and support vector machines (SVM). This is to increase the efficiency and accuracy of the results obtained and also to reduce the computational cost and complexity. The system also provides an open platform where a group of persons with a common interest can share their comments/messages and these comments classified automatically as legal or illegal. This improves the quality of conversation among users. The hybrid model was developed using WEKA tools and Java programming language. The result shows that the hybrid model gave 96.76% accuracy as against the 61.45% and 69.21% of the Na\"ive Bayes and SVM models respectively.

How to estimate heterogeneity, e.g. the effect of some variable differing across observations, is a key question in political science. Methods for doing so make simplifying assumptions about the underlying nature of the heterogeneity to draw reliable inferences. This paper allows a common way of simplifying complex phenomenon (placing observations with similar effects into discrete groups) to be integrated into regression analysis. The framework allows researchers to (i) use their prior knowledge to guide which groups are permissible and (ii) appropriately quantify uncertainty. The paper does this by extending work on "structured sparsity" from a traditional penalized likelihood approach to a Bayesian one by deriving new theoretical results and inferential techniques. It shows that this method outperforms state-of-the-art methods for estimating heterogeneous effects when the underlying heterogeneity is grouped and more effectively identifies groups of observations with different effects in observational data.

The potential of digital twin technology is immense, specifically in the infrastructure, aerospace, and automotive sector. However, practical implementation of this technology is not at an expected speed, specifically because of lack of application-specific details. In this paper, we propose a novel digital twin framework for stochastic nonlinear multi-degree of freedom (MDOF) dynamical systems. The approach proposed in this paper strategically decouples the problem into two time-scales -- (a) a fast time-scale governing the system dynamics and (b) a slow time-scale governing the degradation in the system. The proposed digital twin has four components - (a) a physics-based nominal model (low-fidelity), (b) a Bayesian filtering algorithm a (c) a supervised machine learning algorithm and (d) a high-fidelity model for predicting future responses. The physics-based nominal model combined with Bayesian filtering is used combined parameter state estimation and the supervised machine learning algorithm is used for learning the temporal evolution of the parameters. While the proposed framework can be used with any choice of Bayesian filtering and machine learning algorithm, we propose to use unscented Kalman filter and Gaussian process. Performance of the proposed approach is illustrated using two examples. Results obtained indicate the applicability and excellent performance of the proposed digital twin framework.

We develop a formalism for constructing stochastic upper bounds on the expected full sample risk for supervised classification tasks via the Hilbert coresets approach within a transductive framework. We explicitly compute tight and meaningful bounds for complex datasets and complex hypothesis classes such as state-of-the-art deep neural network architectures. The bounds we develop exhibit nice properties: i) the bounds are non-uniform in the hypothesis space H, ii) in many practical examples, the bounds become effectively deterministic by appropriate choice of prior and training data-dependent posterior distributions on the hypothesis space, and iii) the bounds become significantly better with increase in the size of the training set. We also lay out some ideas to explore for future research. Generalization bounds for learning provide a theoretical guarantee on the performance of a learning algorithm on unseen data. The goal of such bounds is to provide control of the error on unseen data with pre-specified confidence. In certain situations, such bounds may also help in designing new learning algorithms.

Markov networks are popular models for discrete multivariate systems where the dependence structure of the variables is specified by an undirected graph. To allow for more expressive dependence structures, several generalizations of Markov networks have been proposed. Here we consider the class of contextual Markov networks which takes into account possible context-specific independences among pairs of variables. Structure learning of contextual Markov networks is very challenging due to the extremely large number of possible structures. One of the main challenges has been to design a score, by which a structure can be assessed in terms of model fit related to complexity, without assuming chordality. Here we introduce the marginal pseudo-likelihood as an analytically tractable criterion for general contextual Markov networks. Our criterion is shown to yield a consistent structure estimator. Experiments demonstrate the favorable properties of our method in terms of predictive accuracy of the inferred models.

Trained AI systems and expert decision makers can make errors that are often difficult to identify and understand. Determining the root cause for these errors can improve future decisions. This work presents Generative Error Model (GEM), a generative model for inferring representational errors based on observations of an actor's behavior (either simulated agent, robot, or human). The model considers two sources of error: those that occur due to representational limitations -- "blind spots" -- and non-representational errors, such as those caused by noise in execution or systematic errors present in the actor's policy. Disambiguating these two error types allows for targeted refinement of the actor's policy (i.e., representational errors require perceptual augmentation, while other errors can be reduced through methods such as improved training or attention support). We present a Bayesian inference algorithm for GEM and evaluate its utility in recovering representational errors on multiple domains. Results show that our approach can recover blind spots of both reinforcement learning agents as well as human users.

We study the problem of diffeomorphometric geodesic landmark matching where the objective is to find a diffeomorphism that via its group action maps between two sets of landmarks. It is well-known that the motion of the landmarks, and thereby the diffeomorphism, can be encoded by an initial momentum leading to a formulation where the landmark matching problem can be solved as an optimisation problem over such momenta. The novelty of our work lies in the application of a derivative-free Bayesian inverse method for learning the optimal momentum encoding the diffeomorphic mapping between the template and the target. The method we apply is the ensemble Kalman filter, an extension of the Kalman filter to nonlinear observation operators. We describe an efficient implementation of the algorithm and show several numerical results for various target shapes.

Causal induction, i.e., identifying unobservable mechanisms that lead to the observable relations among variables, has played a pivotal role in modern scientific discovery, especially in scenarios with only sparse and limited data. Humans, even young toddlers, can induce causal relationships surprisingly well in various settings despite its notorious difficulty. However, in contrast to the commonplace trait of human cognition is the lack of a diagnostic benchmark to measure causal induction for modern Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems. Therefore, in this work, we introduce the Abstract Causal REasoning (ACRE) dataset for systematic evaluation of current vision systems in causal induction. Motivated by the stream of research on causal discovery in Blicket experiments, we query a visual reasoning system with the following four types of questions in either an independent scenario or an interventional scenario: direct, indirect, screening-off, and backward-blocking, intentionally going beyond the simple strategy of inducing causal relationships by covariation. By analyzing visual reasoning architectures on this testbed, we notice that pure neural models tend towards an associative strategy under their chance-level performance, whereas neuro-symbolic combinations struggle in backward-blocking reasoning. These deficiencies call for future research in models with a more comprehensive capability of causal induction.